We have modeled 6 scenarios relevant to the LCFS market in this note: (1) Likely, (2) High ZEV High Growth, (3) Cellulosic breakthrough, (4) Enhanced Biofuel, (5) Emerging Technology, and (6) Slow Progress scenario. Demand and supply of credits are linked to a number of variables impacting the transportation sector: such as projected stock of different types of vehicles in California, kinds of fuels used, Vehicles Miles Traveled (VMT) for different kinds of vehicles, seasonal behavioral changes on driving patterns, etc. Variations also take into account technological pathways and new emerging credit generation opportunities such as hydrogen (fuel cell electric vehicle), carbon capture & storage, refinery improvement. The scenarios considered in this section provide an estimate for the annual supply of credits based on defined compliance targets and projected fuel demand.

In this analyst note, we present the results of the six scenarios, which are based on the CFS.CarbonOutlook™ model. The model is a fuel demand-supply model that also calculates the price based on the marginal abatement costs of the different fuels

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