The model is a credit/deficit demand-supply model that calculates credit/deficit generation based on volume of different types of fuel consumed. The model has an objective to minimize the overall spending of obligated parties in the program whilst meeting program objectives which is recruited to forecast the credit prices. The model simulates vehicle sales, retirement, and use based on different economic and technical parameters. Vehicles are classified based on their weight classes (LDV, MHDV, and HDV). For each class, the model generates results for fuel demand projections until 2035 broken into several fuel categories: gasoline, gasoline substitute such as ethanol and drop-in renewable gasoline; diesel; diesel substitutes such as biodiesel (BD) and renewable diesel (RD); compressed natural gas (CNG); liquefied natural gas (LNG); electricity; and hydrogen. This version of the model incorporates the latest amendments to the LCFS regulation adopted in November 2024. The model also includes scenarios for the uptake of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), the impact of Carbon, Capture and Sequestration (CCS) in Ethanol pathways, dairy RNG to electricity pathways and modifies the scenarios for ZEV uptake in the MHDV segment as compared to the May 2024 model.

Model Change Log:

 Given the Office of Administrative Law's (OAL) February 2025 disapproval of the amendments, the effective date remains uncertain. This simulator comes with upgrades to the December 2024 version by offering 3 alternative effective dates that can be selected to examine the impact on the LCFS market:  

• Q1 2025
• Q2 2025
• Q1 2026

Click here for the Explainer!