cCarbon's Alberta TIER Credits Demand & Supply Model hinges on the buildup of incremental CCUS capacity in the years to come. The three mentioned scenarios (Accelerated, Baseline and Slow) forecast the bank of credits capacity under varying degrees of CCUS buildup rates. The model indicates a surplus of credits in the latter half of the decade. CCUS projects, which the Alberta Government has been promoting, are expected to increase offsets' supply significantly. However, the development of CCUS remains uncertain – a timely opening of the proposed plants would saturate the market. In our baseline scenario, the additional CCUS plants from 2027 push the market into an EPC + offset surplus of over 80 million, up from roughly 49 million circulating allowances today. In the accelerated scenario, surplus allowances grow to 95 million as the approximately 130 million sequestration credits from 2025 to 2030 saturate the market. This scenario also sees a reduced need for credits and offsets due to an increased decline in carbon intensity. Only in the slow scenario, sluggish growth in oil output, would the market be tight in 2030.