As New Mexico prepares for the launch of its Clean Transportation Fuel Program (CTFP) in 2026, cCarbon has developed a scenario simulator to forecast market dynamics. The tool helps stakeholders project credit and deficit generation based on various fuel consumption patterns and technology adoption rates. The simulator allows users to adjust key scenario inputs, including ZEV adoption for LDVs, fuel blends for renewable diesel (RD), biodiesel (BD), and ethanol targets for 2030, contribution of renewable natural gas in the transport sector and MHDV ZEV adoption. The model’s primary goal is to minimize compliance costs for obligated parties while meeting carbon intensity reduction targets. It calculates credit, deficits and forecasts supply-demand balance under different adoption scenarios.

Applications

• Fuel suppliers & obligated parties: Forecast credit generation
• Policymakers & regulators: Assess the effectiveness of CTFP design.
• Investors & developers: Evaluate opportunities in biofuels, infrastructure, and fleet electrification.

The simulator enables stakeholders to tailor their strategies for a more predictable and efficient transition to clean fuels in New Mexico. Click here for the Explainer!