The Oregon CFP (OR CFP) demand-supply model is a credit/deficit balancing framework that projects credit generation, deficits, and credit bank evolution based on projected transportation fuel consumption while meeting the program’s carbon intensity reduction targets. By employing a credit/deficit demand-supply framework, the model evaluates the usage of various fuel types and generates projections for credit, deficit, and bank. It simulates vehicle sales, fleet turnover, retirement, and usage across different classes like BEV, HEVs, and PHEVs using economic and technical assumptions, and generates fuel demand projections through 2035 across gasoline and gasoline substitutes (e.g., ethanol), diesel and diesel substitutes (e.g., biodiesel, renewable diesel), compressed and liquefied natural gas (CNG and LNG), electricity, and hydrogen. By integrating varying assumptions on zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) uptake, renewable fuel penetration, and infrastructure development within a unified supply-demand structure, the model provides forward-looking insights into credit market balance, compliance trajectories, and credit bank dynamics for stakeholders across the clean fuels value chain.

Model Change Log:

This version of the model has been calibrated using the latest available data (till 2025 Q3). The scenarios have also been updated to reflect delayed timeline for full ZEV adoption, reduced renewable diesel blend in the diesel pool and increase of ethanol blend to 15%. Click here for the Explainer!