The Canada Clean Fuel Regulations require primary fuel suppliers to reduce the carbon intensity of liquid fuels by blending renewable diesel, biodiesel, ethanol, and other low carbon fuels, or by trading credits for compliance. The framework is materially shaping blending strategies, credit balances, and overall fuel market dynamics. On September 5, 2025, the Government of Canada announced its intent to introduce targeted amendments to the Clean Fuel Regulations to strengthen resiliency and support domestic low carbon fuel development. ECCC subsequently released a discussion paper outlining approaches to incentivize domestic biofuel production. On February 5, 2026, the Government of Canada also announced incentives and policy measures to boost ZEV adoption in Canada.

To support stakeholders in assessing these developments, cCarbon has developed the Canada CFR Scenario Simulator. The tool provides structured visibility into credit generation, deficits, banking trends, and blending dynamics across fuel pools, enabling users to evaluate market outcomes through adjustable inputs and scenario analysis through 2030.

Model Change Log:

• The model has been calibrated using the 2025 Q1 credit summary report, CFR Outreach 2025 data, and Statistics Canada datasets for vehicle and fuel sales. Fund credits have also been introduced into the simulator.
• The simulator now includes new scenario features: ZEV sales as a percentage of total LDV sales, credit multiplier factors for Renewable Diesel, Biodiesel, and Ethanol, domestic RD & BD blending in the diesel pool, and domestic ethanol blending in the gasoline pool. A custom input functionality has also been added, enabling users to project credit deficits and bank through 2030.