Analytics Toolkit

This Clean Fuel Incentive Calculator is designed to estimate the total incentives available for biofuels under various low-carbon fuel policies from the perspective of a U.S. producer. It helps users evaluate potential incentives under programs such as California LCFS, Oregon CFP, Washington CFS, British Columbia LCFS, and Canada CFR.

The Oregon CFP demand-supply model is a credit/deficit balancing framework that projects credit generation, deficits, and credit bank evolution based on projected transportation fuel consumption while meeting the program’s carbon intensity reduction targets. By employing a credit/deficit demand-supply framework, the model evaluates the usage of various fuel types and generates projections for credit, deficit, and bank. It simulates vehicle sales, fleet turnover, retirement, and usage across different classes like BEV, HEVs, and PHEVs using economic and technical assumptions, and generates fuel demand projections through 2035 across gasoline and gasoline substitutes (e.g., ethanol), diesel and diesel substitutes (e.g., biodiesel, renewable diesel), compressed and liquefied natural gas (CNG and LNG), electricity, and hydrogen. By integrating varying assumptions on zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) uptake, renewable fuel penetration, and infrastructure development within a unified supply-demand structure, the model provides forward-looking insights into credit market balance, compliance trajectories, and credit bank dynamics for stakeholders across the clean fuels value chain.

The Canada Clean Fuel Regulations require primary fuel suppliers to lower the carbon intensity of liquid fuels by blending renewable diesel, biodiesel, ethanol, and other low carbon fuels or by trading credits for compliance. The framework is materially influencing blending strategies, credit balances, and overall fuel market dynamics. On September 5, 2025, the Government of Canada announced its intent to introduce targeted amendments to the Clean Fuel Regulations to strengthen resiliency and support domestic low carbon fuel development. Subsequently, ECCC released a discussion paper based on the above intent, outlining approaches to incentivize domestic biofuel production. Recently in Feb Govt. of Canada has announced incentive and policy to boost the ZEV adoption in Canada. To support stakeholders in assessing these shifts, cCarbon has developed the Canada CFR Scenario Simulator. The tool provides structured visibility into credit generation, deficits, banking trends, and blending dynamics across fuel pools, enabling users to evaluate market outcomes through adjustable inputs and scenario analysis.

The model is a credit/deficit demand-supply model that calculates credit/deficit generation based on volume of different types of fuel consumed. The model simulates vehicle sales, retirement, and use based on different economic and technical parameters. Vehicles are classified based on their weight classes (LDV, MHDV, and HDV). For each class, the model generates results for fuel demand projections until 2035 broken into several fuel categories: gasoline, gasoline substitute such as ethanol and drop-in renewable gasoline; diesel; diesel substitutes such as biodiesel (BD) and renewable diesel (RD); compressed natural gas (CNG); liquefied natural gas (LNG); electricity; and hydrogen. The model includes scenarios for the uptake of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), the impact of Carbon, Capture and Sequestration (CCS) in Ethanol pathways, dairy RNG to electricity pathways and modifies the scenarios for ZEV uptake in the MHDV segment.

The Washington Clean Fuel Standard (WA CFS) market aims to lower the carbon intensity of transportation fuels by incentivizing low-carbon alternatives through a credit and deficit system. It plays a key role in decarbonizing the fuel supply, advancing renewable diesel (RD), biodiesel (BD), and other clean fuels to meet state emissions targets. To assist stakeholders in navigating this landscape, cCarbon has developed the WA CFS Scenario Simulator. This tool offers insights into credit generation, deficits, and blending trends across fuel pools. By enabling users to adjust key parameters and assess market dynamics, the simulator facilitates informed decision-making in the WA CFS market. Model Change Log: On May 17, 2025, Washington State updated its clean fuels policy with the passage of Second Substitute House Bill 1409. This new law increases the stringency of carbon intensity (CI) reduction and introduces a refined framework for compliance, enforcement, and transparency. The Scenario Simulator has been updated to reflect these amendments and is now calibrated with the Q2 2025 credit report

The British Columbia Low Carbon Fuel Standard (BC LCFS) aims to reduce the carbon intensity of transportation fuels by 30% by 2030, based on 2010 levels. This requires fuel suppliers to lower emissions by blending low-carbon alternatives like renewable diesel (RD), biodiesel (BD), ethanol, and other clean fuels, or by acquiring compliance credits. The regulation is influencing fuel blending strategies and shaping credit markets across the province. To help stakeholders navigate this evolving landscape, cCarbon has developed the BC LCFS Scenario Simulator. This tool provides insights into credit generation, deficits, and blending patterns for various fuel types. By allowing users to adjust key variables and assess market impacts, the simulator supports data-driven decision-making in the BC LCFS market

The Washington Clean Fuel Standard (WA CFS) market aims to reduce the carbon intensity of transportation fuels by incentivizing low-carbon alternatives through a credit and deficit system. It plays a crucial role in decarbonizing the fuel supply, promoting renewable diesel (RD), biodiesel (BD), and other clean fuels to meet state emissions reduction targets. To help clients navigate this evolving market, cCarbon has developed a WA CFS Scenario Simulator, providing a real-time view of credits, deficits, and the credit bank.

The California LCFS was cCarbon's first foray into Clean Fuel credit markets. CA LCFS forms the second part of ARB's (the State's regulator) ""belt 'n' braces” approach to emission reductions. With transportation emissions at around half of covered emissions of the state cap-and-trade market, when the LCFS market is tight and prices high, there is comparatively less pressure on the CaT market, and vice versa. Neither market can be effectively understood or modeled without fully comprehending the other.

The British Columbia Low Carbon Fuel Standard (BC LCFS) aims to reduce the carbon intensity of transportation fuels by requiring fuel suppliers to lower emissions through blending low-carbon alternatives like renewable diesel (RD), biodiesel (BD), ethanol, and other clean fuels, or by acquiring compliance credits. The regulation is driving fuel blending strategies and shaping credit markets across the province. To support stakeholders in navigating this dynamic environment, cCarbon has developed a BC LCFS Scenario Simulator. This tool offers insights into credit generation, deficits, and blending patterns across various fuel types. By enabling users to adjust key variables and evaluate market impacts, the simulator facilitates data-driven decision-making in the BC LCFS landscape.

The California LCFS was cCarbon's first foray into Clean Fuel credit markets. CA LCFS forms the second part of ARB's (the State's regulator) ""belt 'n' braces” approach to emission reductions. With transportation emissions at around half of covered emissions of the state cap-and-trade market, when the LCFS market is tight and prices high, there is comparatively less pressure on the CaT market, and vice versa. Neither market can be effectively understood or modeled without fully comprehending the other.

This Clean Fuel Incentive Calculator is designed to estimate the total incentives available for biofuels under various low-carbon fuel policies from the perspective of a U.S. producer. It helps users evaluate potential incentives under programs such as California LCFS, Oregon CFP, Washington CFS, British Columbia LCFS, and Canada CFR.

The Canada Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR) aim to reduce the carbon intensity of liquid fuels by requiring fuel suppliers to blend renewable diesel (RD), biodiesel (BD), ethanol, and other low-carbon fuels or trade credits to comply. The regulation is shaping compliance strategies and influencing fuel and credit markets.

The Washington Clean Fuel Standard (WA CFS) market aims to reduce the carbon intensity of transportation fuels by incentivizing low-carbon alternatives through a credit and deficit system. It plays a crucial role in decarbonizing the fuel supply, promoting renewable diesel (RD), biodiesel (BD), and other clean fuels to meet state emissions reduction targets. To help clients navigate this evolving market, cCarbon has developed a WA CFS Scenario Simulator, providing a real-time view of credits, deficits, and the credit bank.

OR CFP is an oligopoly with importers of gasoline, diesel, ethanol, biodiesel, and renewable diesel forming the demand side. The program has also voluntary participants such as providers of natural gas, propane, electricity, and hydrogen. Higher credit prices in Oregon CFP is an attractive tool for fuel importers who are looking to set up import infrastructure for the North American clean fuel market. Liquid biofuels such as biodiesel, renewable diesel and ethanol are the major credit generators in this market.

The California LCFS was cCarbon's first foray into Clean Fuel credit markets. CA LCFS forms the second part of ARB's (the State's regulator) ""belt 'n' braces” approach to emission reductions. With transportation emissions at around half of covered emissions of the state cap-and-trade market, when the LCFS market is tight and prices high, there is comparatively less pressure on the CaT market, and vice versa. Neither market can be effectively understood or modeled without fully comprehending the other.

The California LCFS was cCarbon's first foray into Clean Fuel credit markets. CA LCFS forms the second part of ARB's (the State's regulator) ""belt 'n' braces” approach to emission reductions. With transportation emissions at around half of covered emissions of the state cap-and-trade market, when the LCFS market is tight and prices high, there is comparatively less pressure on the CaT market, and vice versa. Neither market can be effectively understood or modeled without fully comprehending the other.