California Air Resources Board Proposes 2026 California Average Grid Electricity CI

Recent developments & Impact

• CARB has proposed its annual update to Carbon Intensity (CI) values for average grid electricity and smart charging pathways under the LCFS. This update uses the latest CA-GREET 4.0 model and once finalized, upon certification, the updated pathway CI values will be available for reporting fuel transactions that occur between January 1 and December 31, 2026. The proposed CI is open for public comments until May 1, 2026.
• The average grid electricity CI update incorporates 2024 CEC power generation data while retaining EPA eGRID for feedstock emissions, with methodological adjustments aligning CEC categories to CA-GREET and applying weighted inputs and emission factors; as a result, the grid CI declines from 70.05 gCO₂e/MJ (2025) to 65.07 gCO₂e/MJ (2026), California solar capacity increased by 11.49% YoY from 2023 to 2024 and the battery storage capacity increased from 9,820 MW in 2020 to 15,040 MW in 2024 (53.2% YoY increase, adding 5,220 MW in a single year).
• Average grid electricity CI in California has been on a decline since 2023.

• Electricity reported under the grid average CI pathway has steadily grown from nearly 648M kWh to 1988M kWh (2021–Q3 2025), with credits rising in tandem from 0.4MMT (Q1 2021) to a little over 1.35MMT (Q3 2025), highlighting its increasing contribution to LCFS credit supply.

• Lower grid CI in 2026 (65.07 vs. 70.05 gCO₂e/MJ) increases credit generation to ~1.356 million MT (~+600 vs. Q3 2025 at similar volumes; a 0.04% increase in credits QoQ) which is calibrated to align with reported data, with gains offset by a declining benchmark CI (76.6 → 75.16) as well as the application of an EER of 3.4 but remaining net positive due to the larger drop in grid CI.

References

• 2026 Carbon Intensity Values for California Average Grid Electricity Used as a Transportation Fuel in California and Electricity Supplied Under the Smart Charging or Smart Electrolysis Provision
• 2026 LCFS Pathways Requiring Public Comments | California Air Resources Board
• WCI: California and Quebec’s Emissions Outlook 2025-2027 | Insight Report | December 2025