WCI Joint Auction #48 Result Summary: Current Auction Clears at $32.48, $4.54 Above the Floor; as Market Factors in Regulatory Certainty

Key Takeaways

• The Clearing Price for the Current Auction was $32.48, $4.54 above the reserve price, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.31. The Advance Auction cleared at $32.75 with a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.86.
• This auction recorded 93 qualified bidders, up from 84 in JA 47, but down from 96 in JA 44 (August 2025) and 108 in JA 42 (Feb 2025).
• The share of allowances purchased by investors increased to 22.16% in this current auction, up from 18.71% in the last current auction. This was the highest share since JA28 in 2021.
• This was the first joint auction held after the Board approved the Cap-and-Invest amendments on 28 May 2026, which likely improved market confidence and resulted in increased participation from investors, supported by the increase in investor purchase share mentioned above.
• Some uncertainties around the ECI Lawsuit persist, which may have had a bearish impact on bids. Additionally, 2026 is likely to be a surplus year i.e., emissions will be under the cap, which means that obligated entities would not be scrambling for allowances and are accordingly unlikely to bid at elevated levels.

Key Statistics

The Current Auction cleared at $32.48, $4.54 above the reserve price, and a $3.67 increase from the previous Current Auction.

The current auction Bid Ratio was 1.31, which was clearly more than that of the previous auction (JA#47 – 1.11) and the highest since JA44, but still on the lower end as compared to the historical auctions. The share of allowance purchased by investors increased from 18.71% in JA47 to 22.16% in JA48. This was the highest share since JA28 in 2021.

The advance auction cleared $4.81 above the reserve price of $27.94 but below the 2029 estimated floor price of $34.23 (assuming 2% rate of inflation).

This was the first joint auction held after the Board adopted the Cap-and-Invest amendments on 28 May 2026. However, the OAL approval is still awaited as CARB resubmitted the proposed amendments on 20^th August 2026.

This auction recorded 93 qualified bidders: 78 from California and 15 from Quebec, an increase from 84 qualified bidders in JA47: 68 from California and 16 from Quebec.

Market Player Analysis

26 Financial entities participated in JA48, compared to 18 financial entities in JA 47. We will release an After Auction Review next week which will go into more detail on participation trends.

Developments to Look Forward to:

1. OAL Approval of the Cap-and-Invest Amendments: CARB withdrew its 14 July 2026 submission on 20 August 2026 and resubmitted the action the same day, to align the review period with the parallel MRR filing. OAL confirmed to cCarbon that it plans to complete review of both matters on or before CARB’s requested 1 September 2026 effective date. Note that the review does not necessarily mean an approval but just the conclusion of the process.
2. CEQA Petition Against the Amendments: A CEQA petition filed by an environmental group against CARB’s Cap-and-Invest amendments remains pending and was an open item going into the auction.
3. Quebec Rulemaking: Consultation on the draft cap-and-trade amendments closed 3 July 2026, with enactment expected in fall or winter 2026, ahead of the October 2026 provincial election.

CC.info Readers Digest

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Analyst Contact

• Pratyush Sahu (psahu@ckinetics.com)