Summary

1. CCA front on Friday closed at $28.95, losing $0.72 over the week. 
2. ICE weekly volume was reported as 35.50 M tons (-12.63% WoW) and the 4-week moving average was reported as 36.78 M tons. 
3. Inflation rose in February but was in line with expectations with a 0.4% increase for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 6%. 

CCAs on Friday closed at $28.95, declining from $29.38 at the beginning of the week, a steady decline following the rise to $29.39 on Tuesday. The decrease in the volume, accompanied by the price decline over the end-of-week indicated that the downtrend was not supported by volume. Investors remained bullish as the Silicon Valley Bank collapsed on Friday after 48 hours of chaos, giving further rise to the fear of recession. 

Price Analysis  

The prices witnessed a slight decline on Friday as investors remain concerned about future growth in primary markets and US Federal Reserve’s (FED) impending interest rate hike decision, due on Wednesday. The price decline on Thursday was similar across all the three primary indicators of the US markets – Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P500. CCAs along with Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closed lower at the end of the week as the CPI data released early last week showed that inflation gauged by 0.4% in February, in line with expectations and up 6% from the previous year. Last week was also dominated by a crisis in the banking sector and experienced volatility as investors remained concerned over the interest rate hikes that are expected to be announced after US FED’s meeting on Wednesday this week.  

Volume Analysis

Volume declined by 12.63% from 40.63 M tons to 35.50 M tons last week.  

California Market Drivers 

February CPI data released last week shows inflation rose by 0.4% in February 

Inflation rose in February in line with expectations, likely keeping the Federal Reserve on track for another interest rate hike next week. The Labor Department released a report on Tuesday stating that the monthly increase in the consumer price index brought the annual rate of inflation to 6%. The estimates made by Dow Jones were spot-on for both readings. Core CPI increased 5.5% over the past year and 0.5% in February, excluding volatile energy and food prices. The annual level was in line, but the monthly reading was slightly higher than the estimate of 0.4%. 

California and Japan partner to build eco-friendly shipping corridors 

The state of California and Japan have joined forces to develop green shipping corridors aimed at promoting sustainable ocean transport. Under the agreement, the two countries will work together to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the maritime industry by facilitating the use of zero-emission vessels and alternative fuels. The partnership aims to promote innovation and research in maritime technology and create a framework for cooperation on environmental regulations. The development of eco-friendly shipping corridors is a crucial step in reducing the carbon footprint of the global shipping industry and addressing climate change. 

Traders Positions 

*Note: CFTC data is unavailable due to an ongoing cyber-related incident at the CFTC’s end. The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report will continue to be delayed until the receipt and validation of all reportable data are completed. 

cCarbon Short-term Forecast (Beta Version) 

*NOTE: Our short-term forecast model requires the CFTC data. We will be updating it once we receive the data from the CFTC’s end. 

Other Market Fundamentals

• Crude oil prices began yet another week with a loss despite strong signals that central banks are stepping in to help troubled lenders in the U.S. and Europe. In Asian morning trade, Brent crude was trading at $72.27 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate was changing hands for $66.06 per barrel, both down by more than a percentage point from Friday’s close. (Source)  
• US natural gas futures increase, but lower demand resulting from less cold weather forecasts limit the gains. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports utilities drew less gas from storage compared to the same period last year and the five-year average. (Source) 

CC.info Readers Digest: 

• Washington Cap-And-Invest Market Outlook 
• 2030 WCI Emissions and Price Forecast | Analyst Note 

Analyst Contact: 

• Megha Jha (mjha@ckinetics.com) 
• Craig Rocha (cmrocha@ckinetics.com)