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North America Renewable Natural Gas Market Outlook | Analyst Note | Aug 2023

North America Renewable Natural Gas Market Outlook reports the RNG production and economics in North America using cCarbon’s CarbonOutlook TM RNG Model. One of the main highlights of the analyst note is the cost of RNG production and potential to generate credits from different state and federal level incentive program. It gives a snapshot to RNG developers and off takers about the state of the incentive market for RNG in 2022 vis a vis 2030. This note also provides a view at the entity level for RNG production from 2018 to 2030. Moreover, this analyst note is a tool to assess the RNG supply model which is one of the newest member in the cCarbon family of models.

RNG currently makes up about 0.3% of the natural gas distribution system in North America. As per our estimate, North America\’s market for renewable natural gas and biogas upgrading technology will develop significantly over the next seven years. For companies who offer biogas upgrading equipment, develop biogas projects, and build RNG pipeline infrastructure, there is a market size of 4 billion USD for RNG production by 2030.

The key takeaways are:

– The main demand drivers for RNG have been US Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (CA LCFS), Oregon Clean Fuels Program and British Columbia LCFS.

– North American annual RNG production was at ~70M MMBTUs in 2022 which will reach ~120M MMBTUs by 2030

– Landfill is one of the major interests among the developers and off taking entities.

– Out of all the different sources of RNG production, RNG from Agri waste costs around 17-32 $/MMBTU.

– The incentive generation from dairy RNG has been highest due to low CI pathways which are active in the CFS programs.

This analyst note is the first in a series that will publish on renewable natural gas as we begin coverage of the market.