BC LCFS Outlook Adjusted to Reflect Current Scenario and Revised Assumptions | Forecast Update | March 2026

Friday, 6th March 2026

Key Takeaways

RD assumptions under the BC LCFS were revised downward in the updated model, lowering RD and BD blending levels and reducing credit generation while increasing cumulative deficits. ZEV sales assumptions were also reduced, though the impact on credit supply remains limited. Initiative Agreement credits continue to be a key supply source, helping maintain a net surplus position. The 2030 bank outlook weakens compared to the previous model, with the updated outlook still pointing to a surplus bank position. Sensitivity cases indicate the potential for a larger surplus depending on market conditions and credit supply dynamics. Detailed price projections and bank balances are available exclusively to our Pro clients.

BC LCFS: Policy Updates 2026 and cCarbon Model Outlook

The British Columbia introduced the Greenhouse Gas Reduction (Renewable and Low Carbon Fuel Requirements) Act in 2008, launching the program in 2010 with minimum renewable blending mandates of 5% in gasoline and 3% in diesel (rising to 4% in 2011). These early requirements laid the foundation for a progressively tightening low-carbon fuel framework in the province. Under the current blending trajectory, gasoline remains at a 5% renewable requirement through 2030, providing long-term policy certainty for fuel suppliers and renewable fuel producers. Diesel is set at 4% from 2024 and increases to 8% for 2025–2030, reflecting a stronger push toward decarbonizing heavier transport segments. Meanwhile, jet fuel starts with no mandate and gradually ramps up to 1% by 2028, 2% by 2029 and 3% by 2030, marking the initial integration of aviation fuels into the compliance framework. On January 1, 2024, the Low Carbon Fuels Act replaced the earlier Act and established the BC Low Carbon Fuel Standard, requiring suppliers of fossil-derived fuels and alternatives to meet tightening annual carbon intensity reduction targets. These targets include a 30% carbon intensity reduction for gasoline and diesel by 2030, significantly strengthening the province’s decarbonization ambition and aligning with broader climate goals.

This note summarizes the updated results of the 2026 run of the CFS.Carbon Outlook™ for BC LCFS. While the output was presented in the webinar on February 5, 2026, this note provides additional details and expanded context around the underlying assumptions, methodology, and market implications. It aims to provide stakeholders with a clearer understanding of expected credit market dynamics, compliance behavior, and potential supply-demand imbalances over the forecast period.

This version of the model (202602v5) has been updated on the online platform as well in BC LCFS forecast dashboard. The tool provides structured visibility into credit generation, deficits, and bank through 2030, enabling users to assess future market tightness and price signals. The dashboard is powered by cCarbon’s demand and supply outlook model and is continuously calibrated with the latest credit reports, regulatory updates, and policy announcements. In the February 2026 update, the model is calibrated with Renewable and Low Carbon Fuel Requirements Summary: 2010–2024, ensuring consistency with historical compliance trends. It also incorporates updated vehicle stock data through Q4 2024 and updated LDV sales through Q3 2025, based on Statistics Canada, improving the accuracy of transport demand projections and associated credit generation estimates.