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  • CA LCFS Outlook on Demand, Supply & Pricing of Credits | Insight report | May 2023
Clean Fuel Standards
CA LCFS Outlook on Demand, Supply & Pricing of Credits | Insight report | May 2023
Monday, 1st May 2023

Targeting the carbon intensity of fuels to reduce emissions from the transportation sector has led to the consideration of low-carbon fuels. The California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) is a mechanism that uses the life cycle carbon intensity of various fuel routes as a metric to cut emissions by 10%. Currently, the credit bank is at 11.70 MT. Tier 1 pathways are squeezing the other pathways, with a major credit increase from renewable diesel.

In this insight report, along with market trend analysis, we present the results of the three scenarios, which are based on the CFS.CarbonOutlook TM model. The model is a fuel demand-supply model that also calculates price based on the marginal abatement costs of the different fuels. Demand and supply of credits are linked to a number of variables impacting the transportation sector: projected stock of different types of vehicles in California, kinds of fuels used, Vehicles Miles Traveled (VMT) for different kinds of vehicles, seasonal behavioral changes on driving patterns, etc. Variations also take into account technological pathways and new emerging credit generation opportunities such as hydrogen (fuel cell electric vehicle), carbon capture & storage, refinery improvement.

Table of Content

LCFS Market overview

California LCFS performance till date

California LCFS current market dynamics

Interplay between different Clean Fuels markets

Development on CA LCFS Pathways

Status of production, consumption, capacity, and demand for biofuels up to 2030

Demand and supply outlook for CA LCFS credits: possibilities till 2030-50


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cCarbon has mapped both the demand as well as supply of SAF to size the market. The research indicates that global SAF consumption in 2022 (as per offtake agreements) stood at 494 million litres.
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