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  • Evolving Compliance Offsets in California and Washington – Forecast “Brief” Update | Analyst Note | October 2025
Compliance Offsets in California and Washington - Forecast Update
Carbon Offsets and Removals
WCI CCOs & WCOs

Evolving Compliance Offsets in California and Washington – Forecast “Brief” Update | Analyst Note | October 2025

Thursday, 30th October 2025

California’s offset market is evolving under new legislation and shifting fundamentals. This CCO Forecast Update explores the impact of AB1207 and SB840, covering program extensions, offset rules, and the upcoming 2026 review, while noting that near-term pricing effects remain limited. The bigger story lies in updated MMC protocol and Non-DEBs forecasts, which bring a major shift to long-term supply dynamics. With post-2030 oversupply risks still in focus, this edition highlights why emerging non-compliance demand could be critical to maintaining market balance in the years ahead.

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

2. Voluntary Retirements of CCOs

3. MMC Deep-dive Analysis

4. Updated CCO Supply-side Modelling

5. Updated CCO Price Modelling

6. Conclusion

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cCarbon has mapped both the demand as well as supply of SAF to size the market. The research indicates that global SAF consumption in 2022 (as per offtake agreements) stood at 494 million litres.
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