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- Canada CFR Insights 2030 : Examining the Future of Clean Fuel Regulations and their Impact | Insight Report | October 2024
Canada CFR Insights 2030 : Examining the Future of Clean Fuel Regulations and their Impact | Insight Report | October 2024
Tuesday, 8th October 2024In this insight report, we explore the critical role of Canada’s Clean Fuel Regulation (CFR) in shaping the country’s path toward transportation decarbonization. Our report contains following section.
Section 1: Executive Summary
This chapter provides a concise overview of the key insights, covering the state of Canada’s transportation sector, fuel consumption, and the credit market under the Clean Fuel Regulation (CFR). It also highlights the growing role of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable fuels in meeting decarbonization goals.
Section 2: Canada Transport Sector Overview
This chapter analyzes the Canadian vehicle fleet by fuel type, segment, and region, focusing on trends in gasoline, diesel, hybrid electric, and battery electric vehicle stock. It also looks at vehicle sales and fossil fuel consumption, tracking shifts towards cleaner alternatives.
Section 3: Clean Fuel Standards
This chapter explains the concepts behind low-carbon fuel standards and provides a detailed look at Canada’s Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR), including carbon intensity targets, compliance categories, and timelines. It compares the CFR with regional and international clean fuel policies, highlighting key market dynamics.
Section 4: Canada CFR Credit Summary Report
This chapter provides a comprehensive overview of Canada’s CFR credit market data report released in June 2024, summarizing credit generation, transfers, and market dynamics. It highlights the role of domestic and imported fuels, key credit pathways, and trends in credit prices, offering insights into the evolving clean fuel landscape.
Section 5: cCarbon Canada CFR Outlook 2030
This chapter outlines the methodology, model inputs, and projections for Canada’s CFR credit market through 2030. It provides insights into credit generation, deficits, and sensitivity analyses, exploring different sensitivity for renewable diesel and electric vehicle adoption in achieving long-term climate targets.
Table of contentTransportation Sector in Canada.
Rising Battery Electric Vehicle Sales and Provincial Leadership.
Canada CFR First Credit Market Report
Canada Transport Sector Overview
Vehicle Stock by Fuel Type and Segment (HDV, MDV, LDV)
Vehicle Stock by Fuel Type Across Provinces.
Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs)
Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs)
Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs)
Canada Renewable Diesel and Bio-diesel Consumption and Blend
Canada Ethanol Consumption and Blend
Concepts of Low-Carbon Fuel Standards
Canada Clean Fuel Regulations: Background and Evolution
Carbon Intensity Targets and Compliance
Types of Credits generated through Canada CFR
Canada CFR & Regional Clean Fuel Targets
Regional Clean Fuels Markets Overview
California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS)
Oregon’s Clean Fuels Program (CFP)
British Columbia’s Low-Carbon Fuel Requirements
Canada’s Clean Fuels Regulation (CFR)
Washington’s Clean Fuel Standard (CFS)
United States Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS)
Other Low Carbon Fuel Standards
European Union’s Low Fuel Regulations.
United Kingdom’s Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation (RTFO)
Canada CFR Credit Summary Report
Canada CFR Credit Market Dynamics.
Canada CFR Credit Prices and the transfers reported by Canada CFR Report
cCarbon Canada CFR Outlook 2030
Method, Model, and Data Inputs
Vehicle Kilometers Traveled (VKT) Analysis
Other factors that could influence Vehicle Kilometers Traveled (VKT)
What happens in the base scenario
Current Value Giveback Index (VGI)
VGI for Renewable Diesel: Canada CFR and other CFS Markets
List of Figures
Figure 1: Total Canada Vehicle Sales.
Figure 2: BEV Sales.
Figure 3: BEV sales % of total Vehicle Sales.
Figure 4: Historic Gasoline Consumption.
Figure 5: Historic Diesel Consumption: 2018-2023.
Figure 6: Canada Renewable Diesel Production.
Figure 7: RD Blend in Diesel pool
Figure 8: Canada Province-wise Ethanol Consumption.
Figure 9: Ethanol Blend in Gasoline pool
Figure 10: Description of credit and deficit generation.
Figure 11:Canada CFR credit reporting lifecycle.
Figure 12: Canada CFR Credit Share by Fuel Type (100% stacked chart)
Figure 13: Canada CFR Credits by Fuel Type (Values)
Figure 14: Domestic Credits by Fuel Type.
Figure 15:Imported Credits by Fuel Type.
Figure 16:Compliance Category 2 Price.
Figure 17:Compliance Category 3 Price.
Figure 18:Vehicle Stock Projection.
Figure 19:VKT Projection Till 2035.
Figure 20: Liquid Fuels Consumption.
Figure 21: Credit Deficit and Bank in Base Scenario.
Figure 22: Credits projections by fuel type – Base scenario.
Figure 23: Credit Deficit and Bank in Sensitivity Analysis 1.
Figure 24: Credits projections by fuel type-Sensitivity Analysis 1
Figure 25: Sensitivity Analysis 2
Figure 26: Credits projections by fuel type-Sensitivity Analysis 2
Figure 27: VGI for Renewable Diesel
Figure 28: VGI for Renewable Diesel-Incentives only for US ProducersList of Tables
Table 1: Canada’s Vehicle Stock by Fuel Type and Segment (HDV, MDV, LDV): 2021-2022(in Vehicle units)
Table 2: Provincial Distribution of Vehicle Stock by Fuel Type in Canada (2022)
Table 3: Provincial Distribution of Electric Vehicles, Plug-in Hybrid, and Alternative Fuel Vehicles in Canada (2022)
Table 4: Canada Quarterly ZEV Vehicle Sales
Table 5:Carbon Intensity limits for diesel and gasoline in Canada CFR
Table 6:Timeline of Key Milestones in Canada’s Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR) Development and Implementation
Table 7: Canada CFR & Regional Clean Fuel Targets
Table 8: Comparative Overview of Regional Clean Fuel Standards and Regulations (California, Oregon, British Columbia, Canada, Washington)
Table 9: CC2 Consumption
Table 10: Consumption in CC3
Table 11: Credits by Source
Table 12: Carbon Intensity of Fuels
Table 13: CFR Compliance credit price and transfers for Canada
Table 14: Model Sensitivity Analysis variables
Table 15: VGI for Renewable Diesel-Incentives only for US ProducersExplore Membership Options to get access to this InSightcCarbon has mapped both the demand as well as supply of SAF to size the market. The research indicates that global SAF consumption in 2022 (as per offtake agreements) stood at 494 million litres.See MembershipsYou might also likeCompliance Offsets in California and Washington - A Forecast Update | Analyst Note | February 2025 Washington C&I: Outlook Post Referendum for Continuation of Program | Analyst Note | December 2024 Unlocking California’s Clean Fuel Future: Updated LCFS Program & Its Medium to Long Term Implications | Analyst Note | December 2024 View All Analyst Notes
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