Executive Summary

Transportation Sector in Canada. 

Flat Diesel Consumption. 

Electric and Hybrid Vehicles. 

Rising Battery Electric Vehicle Sales and Provincial Leadership. 

Growth in Renewable Fuels. 

Canada CFR First Credit Market Report 

Sensitivity Analysis

Canada Transport Sector Overview

Vehicle Stock by Fuel Type and Segment (HDV, MDV, LDV) 

Vehicle Stock by Fuel Type Across Provinces. 

Gasoline Vehicles. 

Diesel Vehicles. 

Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs)

Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) 

Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) 

Other Fuel Types

Canada Vehicle Sales

ZEV Vehicle Sales

Fossil Fuel Consumption

Historic Gasoline Consumption

Historic Diesel Consumption

Canada Renewable Diesel and Bio-diesel Consumption and Blend

Canada Ethanol Consumption and Blend

Clean Fuel Standards

Concepts of Low-Carbon Fuel Standards

Canada Clean Fuel Regulations: Background and Evolution

Carbon Intensity Targets and Compliance

Scope and Coverage

Compliance Protocols

Types of Credits generated through Canada CFR

Timeline of Canada CFR

Canada CFR & Regional Clean Fuel Targets

Regional Clean Fuels Markets Overview

California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS)

Oregon’s Clean Fuels Program (CFP) 

British Columbia’s Low-Carbon Fuel Requirements

Canada’s Clean Fuels Regulation (CFR) 

Washington’s Clean Fuel Standard (CFS) 

United States Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS)

Other Low Carbon Fuel Standards

European Union’s Low Fuel Regulations.

United Kingdom’s Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation (RTFO)

Canada CFR Credit Summary Report

Canada CFR Credit Market Dynamics.

Domestic vs Imported Fuel 

Pathways

Canada CFR Credit Prices and the transfers reported by Canada CFR Report

cCarbon Canada CFR Outlook 2030

Method, Model, and Data Inputs

Modeling Overview

Vehicle Stock

Vehicle Kilometers Traveled (VKT) Analysis

Other factors that could influence Vehicle Kilometers Traveled (VKT)

Base Scenario

What happens in the base scenario

Sensitivity Analysis 1

Sensitivity Analysis 2

Current Value Giveback Index (VGI)

VGI for Renewable Diesel: Canada CFR and other CFS Markets

About cCarbon

Rights to Publication

Disclaimer

List of Figures

Figure 1: Total Canada Vehicle Sales.
Figure 2: BEV Sales.
Figure 3: BEV sales % of total Vehicle Sales.
Figure 4: Historic Gasoline Consumption.
Figure 5: Historic Diesel Consumption: 2018-2023.
Figure 6: Canada Renewable Diesel Production.
Figure 7: RD Blend in Diesel pool
Figure 8: Canada Province-wise Ethanol Consumption.
Figure 9: Ethanol Blend in Gasoline pool
Figure 10: Description of credit and deficit generation.
Figure 11:Canada CFR credit reporting lifecycle.
Figure 12: Canada CFR Credit Share by Fuel Type (100% stacked chart)
Figure 13: Canada CFR Credits by Fuel Type (Values)
Figure 14: Domestic Credits by Fuel Type.
Figure 15:Imported Credits by Fuel Type.
Figure 16:Compliance Category 2 Price.
Figure 17:Compliance Category 3 Price.
Figure 18:Vehicle Stock Projection.
Figure 19:VKT Projection Till 2035.
Figure 20: Liquid Fuels Consumption.
Figure 21: Credit Deficit and Bank in Base Scenario.
Figure 22: Credits projections by fuel type – Base scenario.
Figure 23: Credit Deficit and Bank in Sensitivity Analysis 1.
Figure 24: Credits projections by fuel type-Sensitivity Analysis 1
Figure 25: Sensitivity Analysis 2
Figure 26: Credits projections by fuel type-Sensitivity Analysis 2
Figure 27: VGI for Renewable Diesel
Figure 28: VGI for Renewable Diesel-Incentives only for US Producers

List of Tables
Table 1: Canada’s Vehicle Stock by Fuel Type and Segment (HDV, MDV, LDV): 2021-2022(in Vehicle units)
Table 2: Provincial Distribution of Vehicle Stock by Fuel Type in Canada (2022)
Table 3: Provincial Distribution of Electric Vehicles, Plug-in Hybrid, and Alternative Fuel Vehicles in Canada (2022)
Table 4: Canada Quarterly ZEV Vehicle Sales
Table 5:Carbon Intensity limits for diesel and gasoline in Canada CFR
Table 6:Timeline of Key Milestones in Canada’s Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR) Development and Implementation
Table 7: Canada CFR & Regional Clean Fuel Targets
Table 8: Comparative Overview of Regional Clean Fuel Standards and Regulations (California, Oregon, British Columbia, Canada, Washington)
Table 9: CC2 Consumption
Table 10: Consumption in CC3
Table 11: Credits by Source
Table 12: Carbon Intensity of Fuels
Table 13: CFR Compliance credit price and transfers for Canada
Table 14: Model Sensitivity Analysis variables
Table 15: VGI for Renewable Diesel-Incentives only for US Producers