WHY DURABLE CARBON DIOXIDE REMOVAL (CDR) MATTERS

Durable CDR pathways offer storage of carbon dioxide over 100-1,000+ years and are expected to neutralise residual emissions from hard-to-abate sectors. Their long storage duration and measurability make delivery performance strategically important even though current supply remains small.

MARKET POINT OF VIEW

Durable CDR has built a sizeable demand well ahead of proven supply. It represents ~37% of cumulative CDR offtakes (i.e. announcements and commitments to purchase) but <2% of issuances (i.e actual delivered reductions), making the conversion of contracted tonnes into commissioned projects and verified removals the market’s defining near-term challenge.

WHY THIS ANALYSIS ISOLATES DURABLE REMOVALS

Nature-based removals account for >98% of current issuances but differ materially in economics, delivery model, storage duration and risk. Combining them with durable pathways would obscure the specific financing, infrastructure, commissioning and verification challenges facing this segment.

WHAT THIS REPORT TESTS

To test whether rising demand is becoming met, the report separates developers with offtakes and observed issuances (Evidence Cohort) from those with just offtake commitments but no issuances so far (Commitments-Only Cohort). It asks how much demand is backed by visible capacity, which pathways are delivering, where risks concentrate and what must happen next.

DEMAND HAS SCALED AHEAD OF DELIVERY

Across both cohorts of durable CDR, ~51.1 MtCO₂e of offtake demand has been announced/ committed. The Commitment Only Cohort holds ~42 MtCO₂e , 4.6 times the Evidence Cohort; but has issued no credits. 79% of Commitments-Only Cohort offtake is BECCS and seven developers hold 71.6% of commitments.

SUPPLY IS LIMITED AND EVIDENCE REMAINS PATHWAY-SPECIFIC

Cumulative issuances from durable CDR total just ~1.04 MtCO₂e. Even within the Evidence Cohort offtake equals 4.9 times registered cumulative capacity of all projects combined. BiCRS shows relatively stronger evidence of repeatable delivery, but commitments exceed cumulative capacity by 8x. DAC, ERW and mCDR remain much earlier in commercialization.

THE CRITICAL RISKS ARE STRUCTURAL

Most contracted tonnes depend on unbuilt or un-commissioned infrastructure, while demand and capital are concentrated among a limited number of pathways and developers. Capital allocation is also weakly aligned with delivered removals, and MRV, permitting and verification constrain emerging pathways.

IMPLICATIONS AND QUESTIONS THAT REMAIN OPEN

Buyers and investors should assess financing, permitting, construction, commissioning, utilisation and issuance evidence rather than headline offtakes or announced capacity. The report identifies where the gap sits, but commissioning dates, utilisation rates, capital needs and issuance pace require continued monitoring.