Compliance Offsets in California & Washington – A Forecast Update | Analyst Note | February 2026

North American offset markets now benefit from clearer long-term regulatory direction, with California trending toward structural oversupply while Washington appears set for sustained structural tightness under its proposed reforms. These divergent trajectories create fundamentally different pricing and risk dynamics across states. This CCO Forecast Update explores long-term supply–demand balances through 2045, identifying when and how market imbalances may emerge and outlining the strategic implications for developers and investors.