Current Landscape

Direct Air Capture (DAC) remains in the early stages of deployment, with global capacity still below 0.1 MMTCO₂/year, but momentum is building. Over 140 developers are active globally, backed by increasing policy support and institutional investment. Costs remain high (in the range of ~1000 – 2000 USD/ tonne CO2e) but innovation in modular systems and electrochemical pathways is accelerating progress. Technology underpins the sector, which is evident in the rush for patents: over 211 patents filed globally, with 100 already granted. This trend underscores the growing innovation, and competitive momentum in the DAC landscape.

Investments

Public sector support has been pivotal in early DAC deployment: the U.S. DOE has made large investments (the more recent pullback not withstanding), alongside similar efforts in the EU, Canada, and the UK targeting both infrastructure and R&D. Private and philanthropic capital is complementing this by accelerating early-stage innovation, with key players like Climeworks, Deep Sky, and CarbonCapture Inc. securing major funding. DAC has already raised over $0.7 billion in grant already and over $2.1 billion in equity investments.

Offtake agreements are playing a critical role in driving market confidence, with ~1.9 million tonnes of CO₂ already contracted and leading corporates like Microsoft, United Airlines, Airbus, Amazon, and Frontier Buyers backing the sector.

High Costs and Uncertain Capacity Deployment

While Direct Air Capture (DAC) offers significant long-term potential, high costs remain a major hurdle to widespread adoption. Current first-generation systems are expensive to operate, driven by energy intensity, complex engineering requirements, and nascent supply chains.

cCarbon Viewpoint

DAC holds technological promise and is likely to continue to see technological innovations over the next 5 years. Scale is likely to emerge only in the early part of the next decade. DAC will have to compete for offtake with other CDR options, particularly BECCS and ARR which present volume in this decade. DAC’s appeal lies in its ability to provide scale with low operating costs compared to other CDR options in the future.

Further, we also expect to see DAC coupled with utilization of the captured carbon to create additional revenue streams for DAC projects (e.g. use captured carbon for construction, industrial processes or synthetic fuels). Hence continued R&D, coupled with strong policy support, developed additional revenue streams, private capital, and robust offtake agreements, will be critical to lowering costs and enabling scale.

DAC equity financing reached a peak in 2023 and has fallen substantially since. This foretells a shakeout with IP and patents getting consolidated among a few key players. Newer solutions are also likely to emerge continuing to lower operating costs and capital expenditure.

Over the next few years, we also expect CDR to be integrated into policy mandates across the globe, providing robust long-term demand. A combination of demand, lowering cost, and alternate revenue streams are pre-requisites for DAC; something we expect in the next 5-7 years. Companies and equity investors are going to jockey for leadership in this period.