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  • EU ETS Demand-Supply Outlook 2030 | Analyst Note | May 2024
EU ETS Demand-Supply Outlook 2030 | Analyst Note | May 2024
Friday, 24th May 2024

This Analyst Note by cCarbon delves into the demand-supply outlook for the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) spanning till 2030. It outlines the policies and targets aimed at decarbonizing various sectors regulated under the EU ETS and analyses their impact on the EU ETS market dynamics till 2030. The initial section of this document provides an analysis of historical emissions on an annual and monthly basis. It explores the impact of geopolitical events, as well as decarbonization policies and targets within covered sectors – power, industry, and aviation. This analysis is utilized to project the 2023 emissions for these covered sectors. The second section analyzes the supply, demand for allowances, and surplus up to 2030 using the Carbon Outlook model, which forecasts emissions by sector, banking, and pricing. This model evaluates three scenarios: a baseline scenario, an accelerated decarbonization scenario, and a scenario with slower decarbonization efforts.

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cCarbon has mapped both the demand as well as supply of SAF to size the market. The research indicates that global SAF consumption in 2022 (as per offtake agreements) stood at 494 million litres.
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