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Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Outlook 2030 | Insight Report | July 2025

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Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Outlook 2030 | Insight Report | July 2025

Friday, 18th July 2025

The adoption of Sustainable Aviation Fuel is accelerating the sector’s momentum towards net zero. Governments worldwide are enacting ambitious mandates and incentives aimed at stimulating SAF demand and production. This report contains cCarbon’s 2030 SAF market forecasts and insights on regulatory trends, infrastructure development, offtake agreements, incentive stacks, and production capacity and technology across SAF’s major markets. We analyze the interplay between policy frameworks, market growth, and pricing dynamics, offering a deep dive into SAF’s pivotal role in reducing aviation greenhouse gas emissions and charting a pathway to net-zero air travel.

Key offerings of this report include:

Regional market shares of supply and demand.

Production forecasts by technology pathway and feedstocks.

Key policies and incentives driving adoption at a national and sub-national level.

Profiles of major industry players.

This report provides data-driven forecasts and analyses enabling fuel producers, investors, and corporations to capitalize on expanding opportunities in Sustainable Aviation Fuel.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary……………………………………. 10

Introduction…………………………………………….. 10

Revision From Our Last Report……………………… 14

Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Analysis, 2019-2030………………………………………………. 17

Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production, 2019-2030……………………………………………………… 17

Upcoming SAF mandates…………………………….. 17

Demand and Supply Drivers…………………………. 18

Base Case……………………………………………….. 18

Accelerated Scenario…………………………………. 20

Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Size, 2019-2030……………………………………………………… 20

Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Regional Market Share, 2025 and 2030………………………………… 21

Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Offtake Agreements…………………………………………….. 24

Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Offtake Agreements Signed by Year, 2013-2025………….. 24

Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Offtake Agreements by Top-10 Offtaking Entities (by volume), 2013-2025…………………………………… 24

Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Offtake Agreements by Top-10 Fuel Producers (by volume), 2013-2025………………………………………………. 25

Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Capacity Addition, 2019-2030………………………………………………. 26

Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Feedstock Analysis, 2019-2030………………………………………………. 28

Synopsis of Feedstock Analysis……………………… 28

Global Estimated Feedstock Requirement for Sustainable Aviation Fuel, 2019-2025…………….. 28

Estimated Global Feedstock Requirements for Sustainable Aviation Fuel, 2026-2030…………….. 29

Analysis of Global RD and SAF Demand on Current Feedstock Availability…………………………………. 29

Agriculture and Forestry Products Total Production, By Type, 2018-2023…………………………………… 31

US Agriculture and Forestry Products Total Production, By Type, 2018-2023……………………. 31

Canada Agriculture and Forestry Products Total Production, By Type, 2018-2023……………………. 32

EU Agriculture and Forestry Products Total Production, By Type, 2018-2023……………………. 33

Agriculture and Forestry Products, Total Imports, By Type, 2018-2023………………………………………. 34

US Agriculture and Forestry Products, Total Imports, By Type, 2018-2023…………………………………… 34

Canadian Agriculture and Forestry Products, Total Imports By Type, 2018-2023………………………… 35

EU Agriculture and Forestry Products, Total Imports, By Type, 2018-2023…………………………………… 36

Agriculture and Forestry Products, Total Exports, By Type, 2018-2023………………………………………. 37

US Agriculture and Forestry Products, Total Exports, By Type, 2018-2023…………………………………… 37

Canadian Agriculture and Forestry Products, Total Exports, By Type, 2018-2023………………………… 37

EU Agriculture and Forestry Products, Total Exports, By Type, 2018-2023…………………………………… 38

Agriculture and Forestry Products Total Consumption, By Type, 2018-2023………………… 38

US Agriculture and Forestry Products Total Consumption, By Type, 2018-2023………………… 38

Canadian Agriculture and Forestry Products Total Consumption, By Type, 2018-2023………………… 39

EU Agriculture and Forestry Products Total Consumption, By Type, 2018-2023………………… 40

United States Agriculture Products Consumption Analysis, (Biofuels vs Others), 2018-2023………… 41

United States Soy Oil Consumption Analysis, (Biofuels vs Others), 2018-2023……………………. 41

United States Canola Oil Consumption Analysis, (Biofuels vs Others), 2018-2023……………………. 42

United States Corn Oil Consumption Analysis, (Biofuels vs Others), 2018-2023……………………. 43

Analysis of Clean Fuel Standards in North America, 2019-2030………………………………………………. 44

Clean Fuel Standards in North America: An Introduction…………………………………………….. 44

Sustainable Aviation Fuel Consumption by Clean Fuel Standard Market, 2019-2030…………………. 45

Sustainable Aviation Fuel Consumption by Clean Fuel Standard Market, 2019-2025…………………. 45

Sustainable Aviation Fuel Consumption by Clean Fuel Standard Market, 2026-2030…………………. 46

Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Total Credits Generated by Clean Fuel Standard Market, 2018-2030……… 47

SAF: Total Credits Generated by Clean Fuel Standard Market, 2019-2025……………………………………. 47

SAF: Total Credits Generated by Clean Fuel Standard Market, 2026-2030……………………………………. 48

Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Average Carbon Intensity by Clean Fuel Standard Market, 2019-2030……… 49

SAF: Average Carbon Intensity by Clean Fuel Standard Market, 2019-2025……………………….. 49

SAF: Average Carbon Intensity by Clean Fuel Standard Market, 2026-2030……………………….. 49

Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Estimated Incentives Generated by Clean Fuel Standard Market, 2019-2030……………………………………………………… 50

SAF: Estimated Incentives Generated by Clean Fuel Standard Market, 2019-2025……………………….. 50

SAF: Estimated Incentives Generated by Clean Fuel Standard Market, 2026-2030……………………….. 51

SAF: Pathways Registered in Clean Fuel Standard Markets, 2019-2024…………………………………… 52

SAF: Pathways Registered by Feedstock, 2018-2023…………………………………………………………….. 53

Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Analysis. 55

Global Sustainable Aviation: Pathways for production………………………………………………. 55

Fischer-Tropsch Synthesized Paraffinic Kerosene (FT-SPK)………………………………………………….. 58

Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA-SPK)…………………………………………………………….. 59

Direct sugars to hydrocarbons (DSHC)…………….. 60

Fischer-Tropsch Synthesized Paraffinic Kerosene with Aromatics (FT-SPK/A)…………………………… 61

Alcohol-to-Jet Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene (ATJ-SPK)………………………………………………………. 62

Catalytic Hydrothermolysis Jet (CHJ)………………. 63

Hydrocarbon-Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HC-HEFA-SPK)………………………………….. 64

Co-processing………………………………………….. 65

Power to Liquid (PtL)………………………………….. 66

Alcohol-to-Jet Synthetic Kerosene with Aromatics (ATJ-SKA)………………………………………………… 67

Co-processing of Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA)…………………………………………….. 68

Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Specifications and Fuel Properties…………………………………………. 69

Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production, by Technology……………………………………………… 70

Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production, by Technology, 2024……………………………………… 70

Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production, by Technology, 2030……………………………………… 70

Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Analysis, by Prices…………………………………………………….. 71

Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Analysis, by Prices, 2020-2045……………………………………… 71

Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Policies and Regulatory Framework……………………………….. 73

Existing Policies………………………………………… 73

Upcoming and Potential Regulations……………… 77

Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Dynamics…………………………………………………………….. 81

Market Drivers and Opportunities…………………. 81

Market Challenges…………………………………….. 82

CORSIA and SAF: Dynamics of Decarbonizing Aviation………………………………………………….. 83

Sustainable Aviation Fuel Certificate (SAFc)……… 85

Introduction and Purpose……………………………. 85

Certification Landscape and Mechanisms………… 85

Monetization, Market Dynamics, and Buyer Motivation………………………………………………. 86

Documentation, Verification, and Use Cases…….. 86

Policy Context and Government Integration…….. 86

Outlook: From Niche Compliance to Systemic Decarbonization……………………………………….. 87

Company Profiles………………………………………. 88

Shell plc………………………………………………….. 88

Eni SpA…………………………………………………… 89

Neste…………………………………………………….. 89

Fidelis New Energy, LLC………………………………. 90

SGP BioEnergy………………………………………….. 91

United Airlines Ventures……………………………… 92

Phillips 66……………………………………………….. 93

TotalEnergies…………………………………………… 94

Preem……………………………………………………. 95

Chevron Corporation…………………………………. 95

Global Renewable Diesel and Sustainable Aviation Fuel Plant Database…………………………………… 97

Global Renewable Diesel and Sustainable Aviation Fuel Plant Details………………………………………. 97

Glossary & Methodology…………………………… 110

Abbreviations…………………………………………. 110

Market Definitions…………………………………… 111

Methodology…………………………………………. 111

Facility-level data…………………………………….. 111

Pathway-level split…………………………………… 111

More SAF data at cCarbon.info……………………. 114

References…………………………………………….. 116

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cCarbon has mapped both the demand as well as supply of SAF to size the market. The research indicates that global SAF consumption in 2022 (as per offtake agreements) stood at 494 million litres.

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Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Outlook 2030 | Insight Report | July 2025

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