• InSights
  • Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Outlook 2030 | Insight Report | May 2024
Clean Fuel Standards
RD
CFS Cross-Market
Other CFS News
SAF
RFS
OR CFP
BC LCFS
CA LCFS
Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Outlook 2030 | Insight Report | May 2024
Monday, 13th May 2024

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) marks a significant shift for aviation. Unlike conventional jet fuels, SAF is derived from renewable sources like tallow, waste oils, and synthetic processes. It boasts an impressive reduction of up to 80% in lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions compared to traditional fuels, making it crucial for aviation’s decarbonization goals. One of its major advantages is its compatibility with existing aircraft and infrastructure, requiring no modifications to engines or fueling systems. The global SAF market is set to soar from US$7 million in 2018 to US$25,889 million by 2030, driven by regulatory mandates and corporate commitments to decarbonization, spurring investments and production expansion. In 2030, North America is expected to dominate global SAF production, buoyed by regional LCFS programs and federal initiatives such as the EPA’s RFS in the US and Canada’s CFR. Regulatory frameworks, including clean fuel standards, are vital in driving SAF demand through incentives, carbon intensity targets, and pathway registrations. However, meeting SAF demand by 2030 poses challenges due to limited feedstock availability, primarily with waste streams such as tallow, used cooking oil (UCO), and corn oil. The competitive landscape of the global SAF market is fierce, with investments from energy giants, aviation firms, and biofuel specialists driving innovation and growth.

 

The report is accompanied by the underlying data. To request the data, please contact insights@ccarbon.info. Existing product members can use their complimentary analyst hours for queries and customization. Non-members receive two complimentary hours with the report.

Table of Contents:

1 Glossary & Methodology

1.1 Abbreviations

1.2 Market Definitions

1.3 Methodology

1.3.1 Facility-level data

1.3.2 Pathway-level split

1.3.3 CFS Credit volumes

1.3.4 Incentives

1.3.5 Feedstock requirement

2 More SAF data at cCarbon.info

3 Executive Summary

3.1 Global SAF Market Size Expected to exceed US$25 billion in 2030

3.2 North America projected to lead global SAF production in 2030

3.3 UCO and Soy Oil projected to drive a significant chunk of the feedstock requirement for SAF by 2030

3.4 SAF projected to generate US$424 million in 2030 through CFS incentives across North America

3.5 Nine ASTM Pathways currently approved for SAF production

3.6 Oil and gas majors expected to claim a major chunk of the projected global SAF capacity by 2030

4 Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Market Analysis, 2018-2030

4.1 Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production, 2018-2030

4.1.1 Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production, 2018-2023

4.1.2 Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production, 2024-2030

4.2 Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Regional Market Share, 2023 and 2030

4.3 Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Size, 2018-2030

4.3.1 Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Size, 2018-2023

4.3.2 Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Size, 2024-2030

4.4 Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Offtake Agreements

4.4.1 Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Offtake Agreements Signed by Year, 2013-2023

4.4.2 Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Offtake Agreements by Top-10 Offtaking Entities (by volume), 2013-2023

4.4.3 Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Offtake Agreements by Top-10 Fuel Producers (by volume), 2013-2023

4.5 Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Capacity Addition, 2018-2030

4.5.1 Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Capacity Addition, 2018-2023

4.5.2 Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Capacity Addition, 2024-2030

5 Global, Sustainable Aviation Fuel Feedstock Analysis, 2018-2030

5.1 Synopsis of Feedstock Analysis

5.2 Global Estimated Feedstock Requirement for Sustainable Aviation Fuel, 2018-2030

5.3 Global Estimated Feedstock Potential Requirement for Sustainable Aviation Fuel, 2024-2030

5.4 Global Estimated Feedstock Requirement for Renewable Diesel, 2018-2030

5.5 Global Estimated Feedstock Potential Requirement for Renewable Diesel, 2024-2030

5.6 Analysis of Global SAF & RD Demand on the Current Feedstock Availability

5.7 Agriculture and Forestry Products Total Production, By Type, 2018-2023

5.7.1 US Agriculture and Forestry Products Total Production, By Type, 2018-2023

5.7.2 Canada Agriculture and Forestry Products Total Production, By Type, 2018-2023

5.7.3 EU Agriculture and Forestry Products Total Production, By Type, 2018-2023

5.8 Agriculture and Forestry Products, Total Imports, By Type, 2018-2023

5.8.1 US Agriculture and Forestry Products, Total Imports, By Type, 2018-2023

5.8.2 Canada Agriculture and Forestry Products, Total Imports, By Type, 2018-2023

5.8.3 EU Agriculture and Forestry Products, Total Imports, By Type, 2018-2023

5.9 Agriculture and Forestry Products, Total Exports, By Type, 2018-2023

5.9.1 US Agriculture and Forestry Products, Total Exports, By Type, 2018-2023

5.9.2 Canada Agriculture and Forestry Products, Total Exports, By Type, 2018-2023

5.9.3 EU Agriculture and Forestry Products, Total Exports, By Type, 2018-2023

5.1 Agriculture and Forestry Products Total Consumption, By Type, 2018-2023

5.10.1 US Agriculture and Forestry Products Total Consumption, By Type, 2018-2023

5.10.2 Canada Agriculture and Forestry Products Total Consumption, By Type, 2018-2023

5.10.3 EU Agriculture and Forestry Products Total Consumption, By Type, 2018-2023

5.11 United States, Agriculture Products Consumption Analysis, (Biofuels vs Others), 2018-2023

5.11.1 United States, Soy Oil Consumption Analysis, (Biofuels vs Others), 2018-2023

5.11.2 United States, Canola Oil Consumption Analysis, (Biofuels vs Others), 2018-2023

5.11.3 United States, Tallow Consumption Analysis, (Biofuels vs Others), 2018-2023

5.11.4 United States, Corn Oil Consumption Analysis, (Biofuels vs Others), 2018-2023

6 Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Analysis of Clean Fuel Standards, 2018-2030

6.1 Clean Fuel Standards in North America: An Introduction

6.2 Sustainable Aviation Fuel Consumption by Clean Fuel Standard Market, 2018-2030

6.2.1 Sustainable Aviation Fuel Consumption by Clean Fuel Standard Market, 2018-2023

6.2.2 Sustainable Aviation Fuel Consumption by Clean Fuel Standard Market, 2024-2030

6.3 Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Total Credits Generated by Clean Fuel Standard Market, 2018-2030

6.3.1 Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Total Credits Generated by Clean Fuel Standard Market, 2018-2023

6.3.2 Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Total Credits Generated by Clean Fuel Standard Market, 2023-2030

6.4 Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Average Carbon Intensity by Clean Fuel Standard Market, 2018-2030

6.4.1 Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Average Carbon Intensity by Clean Fuel Standard Market, 2018-2023

6.4.2 Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Average Carbon Intensity by Clean Fuel Standard Market, 2024-2030

6.5 Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Estimated Incentives Generated by Clean Fuel Standard Market, 2018-2030

6.5.1 Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Estimated Incentives Generated by Clean Fuel Standard Market, 2018-2023

6.5.2 Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Estimated Incentives Generated by Clean Fuel Standard Market, 2024-2030

6.6 Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Pathways Registered in Clean Fuel Standard Markets, 2018-2023

6.6.1 Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Pathways Registered by Clean Fuel Standard Markets, 2018-2023

6.6.2 Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Pathways Registered by Feedstock, 2018-2023

6.6.3 Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Pathways Registered by Facilities, 2018-2023

6.7 Average Credit Prices Across Clean Fuel Markets, 2018-2023

6.7.1 Average RIN Prices, 2018-2023

6.7.2 Average CFS Credit Prices, 2018-2024

7 Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Analysis

7.1 Global Sustainable Aviation: Pathways for production

7.1.1 Fischer-Tropsch Synthesized Paraffinic Kerosene (FT-SPK)

7.1.2 Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA-SPK)

7.1.3 Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA-SPK)

7.1.4 Fischer-Tropsch Synthesized Paraffinic Kerosene with Aromatics (FT-SPK/A)

7.1.5 Alcohol-to-Jet Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene (ATJ-SPK)

7.1.6 Catalytic Hydrothermolysis Jet (CHJ)

7.1.7 Hydrocarbon-Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HC-HEFA-SPK)

7.1.8 Co-processing

7.1.9 Power to Liquid (PtL)

7.2 Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Specifications and Fuel Properties

7.3 Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production, by Technology

7.3.1 Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production, by Technology, 2023

7.3.2 Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production, by Technology, 2030

7.4 Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Analysis, by Prices

7.4.1 Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Analysis, by Prices, 2018-2023

7.4.2 Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Analysis, by Prices, 2024-2030

8 Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Analysis, Policies and Regulatory Framework

8.1 Existing Policies:

8.2 Upcoming Regulations:

9 Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Dynamics

9.1 Market Drivers

9.2 Market Challenges

9.3 Market Opportunities

9.4 Trends in Global Market

10 Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel, PESTLE Analysis

10.1 Political Factors

10.2 Economic Factors

10.3 Social Factors

10.4 Technological Factors

10.5 Legal Factors

10.6 Environmental Factors

11 Competitive Landscape

11.1 Competitive Rivalry

11.2 Supplier Power

11.3 Buyer Power

11.4 Threat of Substitution

11.5 Threat of New Entry

11.6 Total Sustainable Aviation Fuel Nameplate Capacity (Million Litres) and investment (US$ million) by 2030

12 Company Profiles

12.1 Shell plc

12.1.1 Overview

12.1.2 Company Details

12.1.3 Operational Details

12.1.4 Key Announcements

12.2 Eni SpA

12.2.1 Overview

12.2.2 Company Details

12.2.3 Operational details

12.2.4 Key announcements

12.3 Neste

12.3.1 Overview

12.3.2 Company Details

12.3.3 Operational Details

12.3.4 Key announcements

12.4 Fidelis New Energy, LLC

12.4.1 Overview

12.4.2 Company Details

12.4.3 Operational Details

12.4.4 Key Announcements

12.5 SGP BioEnergy

12.5.1 Overview

12.5.2 Company Details

12.5.3 Operational Details

12.5.4 Key Announcements

12.6 United Airlines Ventures

12.6.1 Overview

12.6.2 Company Details

12.6.3 Operational Details

12.6.4 Key Announcements

12.7 Phillips 66

12.7.1 Overview

12.7.2 Company Details

12.7.3 Operational Details

12.7.4 Key Announcements

12.8 TotalEnergies

12.8.1 Overview

12.8.2 Company Details

12.8.3 Operational Details

12.8.4 Key Announcements

12.9 Preem

12.9.1 Overview

12.9.2 Company Details

12.9.3 Operational Details

12.9.4 Key Announcements

12.1 Chevron Corporation

12.10.1 Overview

12.10.2 Company Details

12.10.3 Operational Details

12.10.4 Key Announcements

13 Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Database

13.1 Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Plant Details

13.2 Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Offtake Agreements, 2018-2030

13.3 Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Supplies to Airports

14 Conclusion

15 References

List of Figures

Figure 1: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Regional Market Share, 2030

Figure 2: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Feedstock Requirement (In 1000 MT), 2024-2030

Figure 3: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Production (In Million Liters), 2018-2023

Figure 4: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Production (In Million Liters), 2024-2030

Figure 5: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Regional Market Share, 2023, 2030

Figure 6: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Market Size (In US$ Million), 2018-2023

Figure 7: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Market Size (In US$ Million), 2024-2030

Figure 8: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Offtake Agreements Signed by Year (In Million Litres), 2013-2023

Figure 9: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Offtake Agreements by Top-10 Fuel Consumers (In Million Litres), 2013-2023

Figure 10: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Offtake Agreements by Top-10 Fuel Producers (In Million Litres), 2013-2023

Figure 11: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Capacity Addition (In Million Litres), 2018-2023

Figure 12: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Capacity Addition (In Million Litres), 2024-2030

Figure 13: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Feedstock Requirement (In 1000 MT), 2018-2023

Figure 14: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Feedstock Requirement (In 1000 MT), 2024-2030

Figure 15: Global Renewable Diesel Feedstock Requirement (In 1000 MT), 2018-2023

Figure 16: Global Renewable Diesel Feedstock Requirement (In 1000 MT), 2024-2030

Figure 17: Analysis of Global SAF & RD Demand on the Current Feedstock Availability

Figure 18: United States Agriculture and Forestry Products, Total Production (In 1000 MT), 2018-2023

Figure 19: Canada Agriculture and Forestry Products, Total Production (In 1000 MT), 2018-2023

Figure 20: EU Agriculture and Forestry Products, Total Production (In 1000 MT), 2018-2023

Figure 21: United States Agriculture and Forestry Products, Total Imports (In 1000 MT), 2018-2023

Figure 22: Canada Agriculture and Forestry Products, Total Imports (In 1000 MT), 2018-2023

Figure 23: EU Agriculture and Forestry Products, Total Imports (In 1000 MT), 2018-2023

Figure 24: United States Agriculture and Forestry Products, Total Exports (In 1000 MT), 2018-2023

Figure 25: Canada Agriculture and Forestry Products, Total Exports (In 1000 MT), 2018-2023

Figure 26: EU Agriculture and Forestry Products, Total Exports (In 1000 MT), 2018-2023

Figure 27: United States Agriculture and Forestry Products, Total Consumption (In 1000 MT), 2018-2023

Figure 28: Canada Agriculture and Forestry Products, Total Consumption (In 1000 MT), 2018-2023

Figure 29: EU Agriculture and Forestry Products, Total Consumption (In 1000 MT), 2018-2023

Figure 30: United States, Soy Oil, Consumption, (Biofuels vs Others) (1000 MT), 2018-2023

Figure 31: United States, Canola Oil, Consumption, (Biofuels vs Others) (1000 MT), 2018-2023

Figure 32: United States, Tallow, Consumption, (Biofuels vs Others) (1000 MT), 2018-2023

Figure 33: United States, Corn Oil, Consumption, (Biofuels vs Others) (1000 MT), 2018-2023

Figure 34: Clean Fuel Standards across North America

Figure 35: Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Consumption by Clean Fuel Standard (In Million Litres), 2018-2023

Figure 36: Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Consumption by Clean Fuel Standard (In Million Litres), 2024-2030

Figure 37: Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Credits Generated by Clean Fuel Standard (In 1000 MT), 2018-2023

Figure 38: Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Credits Generated by Clean Fuel Standard (In 1000 MT), 2024-2030

Figure 39 Sustainable Aviation Fuel Average Carbon Intensity by Clean Fuel Standard (In gCO2e/MJ), 2018-2023

Figure 40: Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Average Carbon Intensity by Clean Fuel Standard (In gCO2e/MJ), 2024-2030

Figure 41: Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Estimated Incentives Generated by Clean Fuel Standard (In US$ Million), 2018-2023

Figure 42: Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Estimated Incentives Generated by Clean Fuel Standard (In US$ Million), 2024-2030

Figure 43: Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Pathways Registered by Clean Fuel Standard, 2018-2023

Figure 44: Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Pathways Registered by Feedstock, 2018-2023

Figure 45: Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Number of Pathways Registered by Facilities in CA-LCFS, 2018-2023

Figure 46: Average RIN Prices, 2018-2023

Figure 47: Average CFS Credit Prices, 2018-2022

Figure 48: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production, by Technology, 2023

Figure 49: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production, by Technology, 2030

Figure 50: Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Prices (US$/Litre), 2018-2023

Figure 51: Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Prices (US$/Litre), 2024-2030

Figure 52: Market share by Nameplate Capacity, for Top 10 companies by 2030

List of Tables

Table 1: List of Abbreviations

Table 2: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Market Size (In US$ million), 2018-2030

Table 3: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel, CFS Incentives (In US$ million), 2022-2030

Table 4: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel, by Pathways and Feedstock

Table 5: Sustainable Aviation Fuel Nameplate Capacity (Million Litres) and investment (US$ million) by 2030

Table 6: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Production (In Million Liters), 2018-2023

Table 7: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Production (In Million Liters), 2024-2030

Table 8: Region-wise Production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel, 2023 and 2030 (in Million Litres)

Table 9: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Market Size (In US$ Million), 2018-2023

Table 10: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Market Size (In US$ Million), 2024-2030

Table 11: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Offtake Agreements Signed by Year (In Million Litres), 2013-2023

Table 12: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Offtake Agreements by Top-10 Offtaking Entities (In Million Litres), 2013-2023

Table 13: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Offtake Agreements by Top-10 Fuel Producers (In Million Litres), 2013-2023

Table 14: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Capacity Addition (In Million Litres), 2018-2023

Table 15: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Capacity Addition (In Million Litres), 2024-2030

Table 16: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Feedstock Requirement (In 1000 MT), 2018-2023

Table 17: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Feedstock Potential Requirement (In 1000 MT), 2024-2030

Table 18: Global Renewable Diesel Feedstock Requirement (In 1000 MT), 2018-2023

Table 19: Global Renewable Diesel Feedstock Potential Requirement (In 1000 MT), 2024-2030

Table 20: Analysis of Global SAF & RD Demand on the Current Feedstock Availability

Table 21: United States Agriculture and Forestry Products, Total Production (In 1000 MT), 2018-2023

Table 22: Canada Agriculture and Forestry Products, Total Production (In 1000 MT), 2018-2023

Table 23: EU Agriculture and Forestry Products, Total Production (In 1000 MT), 2018-2023

Table 24: United States Agriculture and Forestry Products, Total Imports (In 1000 MT), 2018-2023

Table 25: Canada Agriculture and Forestry Products, Total Imports (In 1000 MT), 2018-2023

Table 26: EU Agriculture and Forestry Products, Total Imports (In 1000 MT), 2018-2023

Table 27: United States Agriculture and Forestry Products, Total Exports (In 1000 MT), 2018-2023

Table 28: Canada Agriculture and Forestry Products, Total Exports (In 1000 MT), 2018-2023

Table 29: EU Agriculture and Forestry Products, Total Exports (In 1000 MT), 2018-2023

Table 30: United States Agriculture and Forestry Products, Total Consumption (In 1000 MT), 2018-2023

Table 31: Canada Agriculture and Forestry Products, Total Consumption (In 1000 MT), 2018-2023

Table 32: EU Agriculture and Forestry Products, Total Consumption (In 1000 MT), 2018-2023

Table 33: United States, Agriculture Products Consumption Analysis (Biofuels vs Others, In 1000 MT), 2018-2023

Table 34: Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Consumption by Clean Fuel Standard (In Million Litres), 2018-2023

Table 35: Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Consumption by Clean Fuel Standard (In Million Litres), 2024-2030

Table 36: Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Credits Generated by Clean Fuel Standard (In 1000 MT), 2018-2023

Table 37: Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Credits Generated by Clean Fuel Standard (In 1000 MT), 2024-2030

Table 38: Sustainable Aviation Fuel Average Carbon Intensity by Clean Fuel Standard (In gCO2e/MJ), 2018-2023

Table 39: Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Average Carbon Intensity by Clean Fuel Standard (In gCO2e/MJ), 2024-2030

Table 40: Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Estimated Incentives Generated by Clean Fuel Standard (In US$ million), 2018-2023

Table 41: Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Estimated Incentives Generated by Clean Fuel Standard (In US$ Million), 2024-2030

Table 42: Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Pathways Registered by Clean Fuel Standard, 2018-2023

Table 43: Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Pathways Registered by Feedstock, 2018-2023

Table 44: Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Number of Pathways Registered by Facilities in CA-LCFS, 2018-2023

Table 45: Average RIN Prices, 2018-2023

Table 46: Average CFS Credit Prices (USD/MT), 2018-2022

Table 47: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel, by Pathways and Feedstock

Table 48: SAF Technical Specifications for ASTM Annex A2 HEFA-SPK

Table 49: Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Prices (US$/Litre), 2018-2023

Table 50: Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Prices (US$/Litre), 2024-2030

Table 51: Total Sustainable Aviation Fuel Nameplate Capacity (Million Litres) and investment (US$ million) by 2030

Table 52: Shell plc, Company Details

Table 53: Shell plc, Operational Details

Table 54: Eni SpA, Company Details

Table 55: Eni SpA, Operational Details

Table 56: Neste, Company Details

Table 57: Neste, Operational details

Table 58: Fidelis New Energy LLC, Company details

Table 59: Fidelis New Energy, LLC, Operational details

Table 60: SGP BioEnergy, Company details

Table 61: SGP BioEnergy, Operational details

Table 62: United Airlines Ventures, Company details

Table 63: United Airlines Ventures, Operational details

Table 64: Phillips 66, Company details

Table 65: Phillips 66, Operational details

Table 66: TotalEnergies, Company details

Table 67: TotalEnergies, Operational details

Table 68: Preem, Company details

Table 69: Preem, Operational details

Table 70: Chevron Corporation, Company details

Table 71: Chevron Corporation, Operational details

Table 72: Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Plant Details

Table 73: Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Offtake Agreements 2024-2030

Table 74: Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Supplies to Airports

This report is for members only. Purchase Report

Explore Membership Options to get access to this InSight
cCarbon has mapped both the demand as well as supply of SAF to size the market. The research indicates that global SAF consumption in 2022 (as per offtake agreements) stood at 494 million litres.
See Memberships