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North America Renewable Diesel Outlook 2030 | Insight Report | February 2025
Tuesday, 11th February 2025

The North American renewable diesel market is undergoing a market correction due to oversupply and regulatory uncertainty. However, policy support for bio-based fuels is expected to stay given its positive impact to the agriculture and farm sectors. Given the lack of options to decarbonize heavy vehicles, the demand for low-carbon fuels will likely remain near to mid-term. This will keep the industry on an upward trajectory. The following 12–24 months will be critical in determining how producers navigate shrinking margins, feedstock shifts, and the impact of the Clean Fuel Production Credit (45Z) tax credit.

The report provides a detailed outlook on North America’s renewable diesel market, projecting capacity additions and total production through 2030. It examines historic feedstock trends and forecasts future feedstock requirements, offering insights into supply dynamics. The report also analyzes the impact of state and federal clean fuel standards on the RD market, assessing how incentives will evolve over the next five years. Additionally, it includes a comprehensive database of RD producers and facilities, featuring capacity utilization analysis to help stakeholders understand market performance and growth potential.

The report is accompanied by the underlying data. To request the data, please contact insights@ccarbon.info.

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  • cCarbon Analytics Pro Members for Offsets: Log in to download your copy and access the underlying data.
  • Non-Members: Purchase the report with underlying data HERE or contact insights@ccarbon.info to learn about cCarbon membership, which includes access to this report and more.
Table of Contents:

1 Glossary & Methodology

1.1 Abbreviations

1.2 Market Definitions

1.3 Methodology

2 Executive Summary

3 Introduction to the Renewable Diesel Market

3.1 Market Snapshot

4 Comparison Between 2023 and 2024 Report

4.1 Forecast Comparison

4.2 Market Addition

4.3 Capacity Reductions

5 North America Renewable Diesel, Data Analysis, 2018-2030

5.1 North America Renewable Diesel Production, 2018-2030

5.2 North America Renewable Diesel Market Size, 2018-2030

5.3 North America Renewable Diesel Import, 2018-2030

5.4 North America Renewable Diesel Ending Stocks/Exports, 2018-2024

5.5 North America Renewable Diesel Cumulative Capacity, 2025-2030

5.6 North America Renewable Diesel Facility Addition, 2009-2030

6 Renewable Diesel in North American Markets with Clean Fuel Standards, 2018-2030

6.1 Clean Fuel Standards in North America: An Introduction

6.2 North America Renewable Diesel Consumption in Markets with Clean Fuel Standards, 2018-2030

6.3 North America Renewable Diesel, Total Credits Generated by Clean Fuel Standard Market, 2018-2030

6.4 North America Renewable Diesel, Carbon Intensity by Clean Fuel Standard Market, 2018-2030

6.5 North America Renewable Diesel, Estimated Incentives Generated by Clean Fuel Standard Market, 2018-2030

6.6 North America Renewable Diesel, Pathways Registered in Clean Fuel Standard Markets, 2018-2024

6.7 Average Credit Prices Across Clean Fuel Markets, 2018-2024

7 North America, Renewable Diesel Feedstock Analysis, 2018-2030

7.1 Synopsis of Feedstock Analysis

7.2 North America Estimated Feedstock Requirement for Renewable diesel, 2018-2024

7.3 North America Estimated Feedstock Potential Requirement Renewable diesel, 2025-2030

7.4 Analysis of North America Renewable Diesel Demand on the Current Feedstock Availability

7.5 North America Feedstock Total Production, By Type, 2018-2024

7.6 North America Feedstock Total Imports, By Type, 2018-2024

7.7 North America Feedstock, Total Exports, By Type, 2018-2024

7.8 North America Feedstock, Total Consumption, By Type, 2018-2024

7.9 United States, Feedstock Consumption Analysis, (Biofuels vs Others), 2018-2024

7.1 North America Estimated Feedstock Requirement for Renewable Diesel, 2018-2030

7.11 North America Feedstock Prices, By Type, 2018-2030

8 North America Renewable Diesel Market Analysis

8.1 North America Renewable Diesel, Specifications and Fuel Properties

8.2 North America Renewable Diesel Production, by Technology

8.3 North America Renewable Diesel Market Analysis, by Prices

9 North America Renewable Diesel Market Analysis, Policies and Regulatory Framework

9.1 Existing policies

9.2 Recent Developments

10 North American Renewable Diesel Market Dynamics

10.1 Current State

10.2 Market Drivers

10.3 Market Challenges

10.4 Market Opportunities

10.5 Trends in North American Market

10.6 Future Outlook

11 North America Renewable Diesel, PESTLE Analysis

11.1 Political Factors

11.2 Economic Factors

11.3 Social Factors

11.4 Technological Factors

11.5 Legal Factors

11.6 Environmental Factors

12 Competitive Landscape

12.1 Competitive Rivalry

12.2 Supplier Power

12.3 Buyer Power

12.4 Threat of Substitution

12.5 Threat of New Entry

12.6 Total Renewable Diesel Nameplate Capacity (Million Gallons) and Investment (US$ million) by 2030O

13 Company Profiles

13.1 Shell plc

13.2 Phillips 66

13.3 Darling Ingredients

13.4 Valero Energy Corporation

13.5 Neste

13.6 ENI

13.7 Marathon Petroleum Corporation

13.8 BP plc

13.9 Total Energies

13.1 Fidelis New Energy, LLC

14 North America Renewable Diesel Producer Database

14.1 North America, Renewable Diesel, Plant Details

15 Conclusion

16 About cCarbon.info

16.1 Disclaimer

List of Figures

Figure 1: North America Renewable Diesel, Production (In Million Gallons), 2018-2024

Figure 2: North America Renewable Diesel, Production (In Million Gallons), 2025-2030

Figure 3: United States Renewable Diesel Regional Production Market Share, 2024.

Figure 4: United States Renewable Diesel Regional Market Share, 2030

Figure 5: North America Renewable Diesel, Market Size, By Volume (In Million Gallons), 2018-2024

Figure 6: North America Renewable Diesel, Market Size, By Volume (In Million Gallons), 2025-2030

Figure 7: North America Renewable Diesel, Market Size, By Value (In US$ Million), 2018-2024

Figure 8: North America Renewable Diesel, Market Size, By Value, (In US$ Million), 2025-2030

Figure 9: North America Renewable Diesel, Imports (in Million Gallons), 2018-2024

Figure 10: North America Renewable Diesel, Imports, (In Million Gallons), 2025-2030

Figure 11: North America Renewable Diesel Ending Stocks/Exports (in Million Gallons), 2018-2024

Figure 12: North American Renewable Diesel, Cumulative Capacity (In Million Gallons), 2025-2030

Figure 13: North America, Renewable Diesel, Facility Locations by 2030

Figure 14: Clean Fuel Standards across North America

Figure 15: North America Renewable Diesel Consumption by Clean Fuel Standard Market (in Million Gallons), 2018-2024

Figure 16: North America Renewable Diesel Consumption by Clean Fuel Standard Market (in Million Gallons), 2025-2030

Figure 17: North America Renewable Diesel, Total Credits Generation (In Million MT), 2018-2024

Figure 18: North America Renewable Diesel, Credit Generation, (In Million MT), 2025-2030

Figure 19: North America Renewable Diesel, Carbon Intensity (In gCO2e/MJ) 2018-2024

Figure 20: North America Renewable Diesel, Carbon Intensity (In gCO2e/MJ) 2025-2030

Figure 21: North America Renewable Diesel, Estimated Incentives Generated by Clean Fuel Standard Market (In US$ Million), 2018-2024

Figure 22: North America Renewable Diesel, Estimated Incentives Generated by Clean Fuel Standard Market (in US$ Million), 2025-2030

Figure 23: North America Renewable Diesel, Number of Pathways Registered by Clean Fuel Standard Market, 2018-2024

Figure 24: North America Renewable Diesel, Number of Pathways Registered by Feedstock, 2018-2024

Figure 25: Average RIN Prices, 2018-2024

Figure 26: Average CFS Credit Prices, 2018-2024

Figure 27: Renewable Diesel Feedstock Requirement (In 1000 MT), 2018-2024

Figure 28: Renewable Diesel Feedstock Potential Requirement (In 1000 MT), 2025-2030

Figure 29: North America Renewable Diesel, Feedstock Analysis

Figure 30: United States Feedstocks, Total Production (In 1000 MT), 2018-2024

Figure 31: Canada Feedstocks, Total Production (In 1000 MT), 2018-2024

Figure 32: United States Feedstocks, Total Imports (In 1000 MT), 2018-2024

Figure 33: United States Feedstocks, Total Exports (In 1000 MT), 2018-2024

Figure 34: Canada Feedstocks, Total Exports (In 1000 MT), 2018-2024

Figure 35: United States Feedstocks, Total Consumption (In 1000 MT), 2018-2024

Figure 36: Canada Feedstocks, Total Consumption (In 1000 MT), 2018-2024

Figure 37: United States, Soybean Oil, Consumption, (Biofuels vs Others) (1000 MT), 2018-2024

Figure 38: United States, Corn Oil, Consumption, (Biofuels vs Others) (1000 MT), 2018-2024

Figure 39: United States, Canola Oil, Consumption (Biofuels vs Others) (1000 MT), 2018-2024

Figure 40: United States, Tallow, Consumption, (Biofuels vs Others) (1000 MT), 2018-2023

Figure 41: North America Renewable Diesel, Estimated Feedstock Requirement (1000 MT), 2018-2024

Figure 42: North America Renewable Diesel Feedstock Prices (US$/MT), By Type, 2018-2024

Figure 43: North America Renewable Diesel Feedstock Prices (US$/MT), By Type, 2024-2030

Figure 44: North America Renewable Diesel Production, by Technology, 2024

Figure 45: North America Renewable Diesel Production, by Technology, 2030

Figure 46: Renewable Diesel and Petroleum Diesel Prices, California, 2018-2024

Figure 47: Renewable Diesel and Crude Oil Prices, 2018-2024

Figure 48: Top 15 Companies’ Renewable Diesel Capacity, 2030

List of Tables

Table 1: List of Abbreviations

Table 2: North America Renewable Diesel, Production (In Million Gallons), 2018-2024

Table 3: North American Renewable Diesel, Production (In Million Gallons), 2025-2030

Table 4: State-wise Production of Renewable Diesel, 2024 and 2030 (in Million Gallons)

Table 5: North America Renewable Diesel, Market Size, By Volume, (In Million Gallons), 2018-2024

Table 6: North American Renewable Diesel, Market Size, By Volume (In Million Gallons), 2025-2030

Table 7: North America Renewable Diesel, Market Size, By Value, (In US$ Million), 2018-2024

Table 8: North American Renewable Diesel, Market Size, By Value, (In US$ Million), 2025-2030

Table 9: North America Renewable Diesel, Imports (In Million Gallons), 2018-2024

Table 10: North American Renewable Diesel, Imports, (In Million Gallons), 2025-2030

Table 11: North America Renewable Diesel, Ending Stocks/Exports (In Million Gallons), 2018-2024

Table 12: North American Renewable Diesel, Cumulative Capacity (In Million Gallons), 2025-2030

Table 13: North American Renewable Diesel, Plants Start-Up Year, Location

Table 14: North America Renewable Diesel, Consumption by Clean Fuel Standard Market (In Million Gallons), 2018-2024

Table 15: North America Renewable Diesel, Consumption by Clean Fuel Standard Market (In Million Gallons), 2025-2030

Table 16: North America Renewable Diesel, Credit Generation (In Million MT), 2018-2024

Table 17: North America Renewable Diesel, Credit Generation (In Million MT), 2025-2030

Table 18: North America Renewable Diesel, Carbon Intensity (In gCO2e/MJ) 2018-2024

Table 19: North America Renewable Diesel, Carbon Intensity (In gCO2e/MJ), 2025-2030

Table 20: North America Renewable Diesel, Estimated Incentives Generated by Clean Fuel Standard Market (in US$ Million), 2018-2024

Table 21: North America Renewable Diesel, Estimated Incentives Generated by Clean Fuel Standard Market (in US$ Million), 2025-2030

Table 22: North America Renewable Diesel, Number of Pathways Registered by Clean Fuel Standard Market, 2018-2024

Table 23: North America Renewable Diesel, Number of Pathways Registered by Feedstock, 2018-2024

Table 24: North America Renewable Diesel, Number of Active Pathways Registered by Facilities

Table 25: Average RIN Prices, 2018-2024

Table 26: Average CFS Credit Prices (US$/MT), 2018-2024

Table 27: Renewable Diesel Feedstock Requirement (In 1000 MT), 2018-2024

Table 28: Renewable Diesel Feedstock Potential Requirement (In 1000 MT), 2025-2030

Table 29: Renewable Diesel Feedstock Analysis

Table 30: United States Feedstocks, Total Production (In 1000 MT), 2018-2024

Table 31: Canada Feedstocks, Total Production (In 1000 MT), 2018-2024

Table 32: United States Feedstocks, Total Imports (In 1000 MT), 2018-2024

Table 33: United States Feedstocks, Total Exports (In 1000 MT), 2018-2024

Table 34: Canada Feedstocks, Total Exports (In 1000 MT), 2018-2024

Table 35: United States Feedstocks, Total Consumption (In 1000 MT), 2018-2024

Table 36: Canada Feedstocks, Total Consumption (In 1000 MT), 2018-2024

Table 37: United States, Feedstock Consumption Analysis (Biofuels vs Others, In 1000 MT), 2018-2024

Table 38: North American Renewable Diesel, Estimated Feedstock Requirement, (In 1000 MT), 2018-2024

Table 39: North America Renewable Diesel Feedstock Prices (US$/MT), By Type, 2018-2024

Table 40: North America Renewable Diesel Feedstock Prices (US$/MT), By Type, 2025-2030

Table 41: Renewable Diesel ASTM-D975 Specifications

Table 42: CGSB-3.517 Standards for Renewable Diesel

Table 43: Renewable Diesel and Diesel Fuel Prices (US$/Litre), 2018-2024

Table 44: Renewable Diesel and Crude Oil Prices (US$/Litre), 2018-2024

Table 45: Total Renewable Diesel Nameplate Capacity (Million Gallons) and Investment (US$ million) by 2030

Table 46: Shell plc, Company Details

Table 47: Shell plc, Operational Details

Table 48: Phillips 66, Company Details

Table 49: Phillips 66, Operational Details

Table 50: Darling Ingredients Inc., Company Details

Table 51: Darling Ingredients, Operational Details

Table 52: Valero Energy Corporation, Company Details

Table 53: Valero Energy Corporation, Operational Details

Table 54: Neste Oyj, Company Details

Table 55: Neste Oyj, Operational Details

Table 56: ENI Company Details

Table 57: ENI Operational Details

Table 58: Marathon Petroleum Corporation Company Details

Table 59: Marathon Petroleum Operational Details

Table 60: BP Plc Company Details

Table 61: BP Plc Operational Details

Table 62: Total Energies Company Details

Table 63: Total Energies Operational Details

Table 64: Fidelis New Energy Company Details

Table 65: Fidelis New Energy Operational Details

Table 66: North America Renewable Diesel Market Analysis, Plant Details

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