Table of Contents
List of Figures
List of Tables
Executive Summary
Introduction to Clean Fuels Standards
Regional Clean Fuels Markets Overview
California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS)
Oregon’s Clean Fuels Program (CFP)
British Columbia’s Low-Carbon Fuel Requirements
Canada’s Clean Fuels Regulation (CFR)
Washington’s Clean Fuel Standard (CFS)
United States Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS)
Other Low Carbon Fuel Requirements
European Union
United Kingdom’s Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation (RTFO)
Overview of Emerging Clean Fuel Standards in U.S. States
New York Clean Fuel Standard (NY CFS)
New Mexico Clean Transportation Fuel Standard (CTFS)
Michigan Senate Bill – Proposed Low Carbon Fuel Standard
Transport Sector Dynamics in Clean Fuel Markets
Transport Sector Emissions
Transport Sector Stock and Sales Trends
Light Duty Vehicle Stock
ICE Vehicles
Gasoline Vehicles
Zero-Emission Vehicles (ZEVs)
Sales
Heavy-Duty Vehicles
Carbon Intensity Schedules and Fuel Pathways
Carbon Intensity Benchmarks Across Clean Fuel Markets
Gasoline
Diesel
Alternative Jet Fuel
Registered Fuel Pathways
Average Carbon Intensities
Clean Fuels Market and Pricing Outlook
CFS.CarbonOutlook Model: Used for Clean Fuel Markets
Modeling Overview
Method and Data
Key inputs include
Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis
Outputs and Insights
Methodology
Variables Selection and Sensitivity Cases
California Low Carbon Fuel Standard Market Outlook
Alternative Effective Dates for Amended LCFS Following OAL Disapproval: cCarbon’s Forecasts Adjusted for Regulatory Uncertainty
Key Market and Regulatory Developments
Need for New Technologies In the Next Decade
Key Factors Influencing the CA LCFS Market
Renewable Diesel
Sustainable Aviation Fuel
Ethanol
Renewable Natural Gas
Light-Duty Electric Vehicles
Heavy-Duty Vehicles
cCarbon’s Modeling Scenarios
California Low Carbon Fuel Standard Scenarios Description
Aggressive Scenario
Base Case
Delayed Scenario
Credit, Deficit, and Bank By Scenario
Technologies and Pathways That Could Drive the LCFS Program Post
Oregon Clean Fuels Program Market Outlook
Key Market and Regulatory Developments
Key Factors Influencing the OR CFP Market
Credits by Fuel Type: Renewable Diesel Emerges as Leading Credit Generator
ZEV Uptake in Light-Duty Segment
cCarbon’s Modeling Scenarios
Credit, Deficit, and Bank By Scenario
Baseline Scenario
Aggressive Scenario
Delayed Scenario
Baseline Price Forecast Till
Washington Clean Fuel Standard (WA CFS): Overview and Market Dynamics
Introduction
Key Market and Regulatory Developments
Book-and-Claim Accounting and Standardized Mass Balance Reporting
New Credit Structure for Methane Capture Projects
Restructuring of Credit Pools to Prioritize Heavy-Duty ZEV Infrastructure
Expanded Feedstock Eligibility and Stricter Carbon Intensity (CI) Validation
Alignment of Methane Crediting, Renewable Energy Credits (RECs), and Verification with CARB LCFS and Oregon CFP
Enhanced Third-Party Validation and Faster Credit Transfers
Key Factors Influencing the WA CFS Market
Renewable Diesel Blend Growth to by
Zero-Emission Vehicles (ZEV) Projected To Make Up Of Total Vehicle Stock By
Credits by Fuel Type
cCarbon’s Modeling Scenarios
Washington Clean Fuel Standard (WA CFS) Credit Bank
Baseline
Aggressive
Delayed
Canada Clean Fuel Regulation (CFR) Overview and Market Dynamics
cCarbon’s Canada CFR Outlook
Canada Vehicle Stock
Vehicle Kilometers Traveled (VKT) Analysis
Light-Duty Vehicles (LDVs)
Buses and Intra-City Transportation Vehicles
Heavy Freight Vehicles
Other Factors That Could Influence Vehicle Kilometers Traveled (VKT)
Key Drivers Shaping Canada’s CFR Market Through
Sensitivity Analysis
Base Case
Sensitivity –
Sensitivity –
Pricing Outlook for Base Case
cCarbon Clean Fuel Incentive Calculator
California LCFS (Low Carbon Fuel Standard):
Canada CFR (Clean Fuel Regulations):
Washington CFS (Clean Fuel Standard):
Oregon CFP (Clean Fuels Program):
British Columbia LCFS (Low Carbon Fuels Standard):
Fuel-Wise Incentive
Notice of Intent to Propose Regulations on the § Clean Fuel Production Credit
Conclusion
About cCarbon
Rights to Publication
Disclaimer

List of Figures
Figure 1: Description of Credit and Deficit Generation in Clean Fuels Markets
Figure 2: Clean Fuels Markets in North America
Figure 3: Transport Sector Emissions
Figure 4: 2023 Light-Duty Vehicle Stock Numbers in Clean Fuel Markets
Figure 5: United States BEV and PHEV Sales
Figure 6: ZEV Sales in Clean Fuels Markets
Figure 7: Gasoline CI Benchmark (gCO2e/MJ)
Figure 8: Diesel CI Benchmarks (gCO2e/MJ)
Figure 9: Alternative Jet Fuel CI Benchmarks (gCO2e/MJ)
Figure 10: Active Approved Carbon Intensity Pathways
Figure 11: Ethanol Average CI (gCO2e/MJ)
Figure 12: Renewable Diesel Average CI (gCO2e/MJ)
Figure 13: Biodiesel Average CI (gCO2e/MJ)
Figure 14: Average Hydrogen CI (gCO2e/MJ)
Figure 15: LCFS Credit Prices –Type 1
Figure 16: California LCFS Credits by Fuel Type
Figure 17: Carbon Intensity Reduction Schedule for Gasoline and Diesel
Figure 18: Target CI and CI of Alternate Fuels
Figure 19: North America Renewable Diesel, Production estimates (In Million Gallons)
Figure 20: RD Consumption in North America
Figure 21: Count of Diesel Vehicle and Diesel demand (Historical and Forecasted)
Figure 22: Share of RD in California’s Diesel Pool
Figure 23: RD by Feedstock
Figure 24: Expected Credit Generation if 200 Million Gallons of SAF are Consumed by 2030
Figure 25: California Ethanol blend and volume
Figure 26: Credits Generated by Ethanol
Figure 27: Carbon Intensity of Different Configuration of Ethanol and CCS
Figure 28: Credit Generation (Millions)of Ethanol with and without CCS
Figure 29: NG Volumes in California LCFS
Figure 30: Credits Generated Under LCFS
Figure 31: Credit Generation Under Different Scenarios for Dairy RNG to Electricity
Figure 32: ACC-II California Mandate and Progress
Figure 33: California and Rest of United States Zero-Emission LDV Sales
Figure 34: EV Sales Per 1000 People and Median HH Income (15 Most Populous Counties)
Figure 35: Share of ZEV Sales in Total LDV Sales Population in 15 Most Populous Counties
Figure 36: Annualized EV Sales per 1000 Population in 15 Most Populous Counties
Figure 37: BEV, PHEVs and Hydrogen Fuel Cell Stock and Sales
Figure 38: California Electricity Demand from LDVs Under Base Case and Delayed Scenarios
Figure 39: Historic Sales by Vehicle Class (Including Fossil Vehicles)
Figure 40: Class 2b Vehicles Sales by Fuel Type
Figure 41: Class 3 Vehicles Sales by Fuel Type
Figure 42: Class 4-8 Vehicles Sales by Fuel Type
Figure 43: Class 7-8 Vehicles Sales by Fuel Type
Figure 44: Medium and Heavy Duty ZEVs Stock
Figure 45: Medium and Heavy Duty ZEV Models and Makers
Figure 46: Heavy Duty BEV Sales Under ACT Scenarios
Figure 47: California LCFS Base Case Credit, Deficit and Bank
Figure 48: California LCFS Aggressive Scenario Credit, Deficit and Bank
Figure 49: California LCFS Delayed Scenario Credit, Deficit and Bank
Figure 50: Credits and Deficits Associated with AAM Trigger
Figure 51: Price in Base Case from CFS.CarbonOutlook Model
Figure 52: California LCFS Base Case Credit, Deficit and Bank
Figure 53: California LCFS Aggressive Scenario Credit, Deficit and Bank
Figure 54: California LCFS Delayed Scenario Credit, Deficit and Bank
Figure 55: California LCFS Base Case Credit, Deficit and Bank
Figure 56: California LCFS Aggressive Scenario Credit, Deficit and Bank
Figure 57: California LCFS Delayed Scenario Credit, Deficit and Bank
Figure 58: Oregon CFP Credits by Fuel Type
Figure 59: Oregon Diesel Pool and Blend Forecast
Figure 60: Oregon Light-duty ZEV Sales
Figure 61: Oregon CFP Baseline Credit, Deficit and Bank
Figure 62: Oregon CFP Aggressive Credit, Deficit and Bank
Figure 63: Oregon CFP Delayed Credit, Deficit and Bank
Figure 64: Oregon CFP Forecasted Baseline Credit Price
Figure 65: Diesel Pool
Figure 66: ZEV as a % of Total Stock
Figure 67: Credits by Fuel Type
Figure 68: WA CFS Baseline
Figure 69: WA CFS Aggressive Scenario
Figure 70: WA CFS Delayed Scenario
Figure 71: Canada Vehicle Stock
Figure 72: VKT Projection
Figure 73: Liquid Fuels Consumption
Figure 74: Credits Projections by Fuel Type- Base Scenario
Figure 75: Canada CFR Base
Figure 76: Canada CFR Sensitivity 1
Figure 77: Canada CFR Sensitivity-2
Figure 78: Pricing Outlook for Base Case
Figure 79: Ethanol CFIC
Figure 80: Renewable Diesel CFIC
Figure 81: Biodiesel CFIC

List of Tables
Table 1: Comparative Overview of Regional Clean Fuel Standards and Regulations
Table 2: Transport Sector Emissions
Table 3: 2023 Light-Duty Vehicle Stock Numbers in Clean Fuels Markets and the United States
Table 4: United States BEV and PHEV Sales
Table 5: ZEV Sales in Clean Fuels Markets
Table 6: ZEV Programs and Mandates in Clean Fuels Markets
Table 7: Gasoline Benchmark CI Values
Table 8: Diesel Benchmark CI Values
Table 9: Jet Fuel CI Benchmarks
Table 10: Average Ethanol Carbon Intensities
Table 11: Renewable Diesel Average Carbon Intensities
Table 12: Biodiesel Average Carbon Intensities
Table 13: Average Hydrogen Carbon Intensities
Table 14: Additional Key California LCFS Changes
Table 15: California Diesel, RD, BD Volumes
Table 16: North American RD Feedstock Analysis
Table 17: North American RD Estimated Feedstock Requirement
Table 18: North American RD Feedstock Analysis
Table 19: List of North American RD Plants with Non-Soy/Non-Canola Feedstocks
Table 20: SAF / AJF Consumption and Credit Generation
Table 21: Planned Capacity for Dairy and Agricultural Waste-Based RNG Projects
Table 22: Additional Capacity of Dairy RNG by
Table 23: Sales Mandates by Model Year Under the ACT
Table 24: ACT Scenarios California LCFS
Table 25: California LCFS Scenario Variables
Table 26: Oregon CFP Scenario Variables
Table 27: WA CFS Scenario Variables