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  • North American Forestry Outlook | Insight Report | February 2025
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North American Forestry Outlook | Insight Report | February 2025
Tuesday, 4th February 2025

The North American forestry carbon market is experiencing a period of dynamic change, presenting both exciting opportunities and complex challenges. Our new report offers a comprehensive analysis of this evolving landscape, providing critical insights for stakeholders. Key takeaways include the growth of Improved Forest Management (IFM) projects, with issuances up 77% annually, and the rising prominence of Afforestation, Reforestation, and Revegetation (ARR) credits, which command a price premium. The report also examines the increasing convergence of voluntary and compliance markets, driven by regulatory developments and the emergence of new programs across North America. We project significant growth in voluntary forestry credit issuances, peaking in the late 2030s, while also highlighting potential market risks. This report offers data-driven forecasts, analysis and strategic implications, empowering developers, investors, and corporations to capitalize on the growing potential of North American forestry carbon.

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Non-Members: Purchase the report with underlying data HERE or contact clientinsights@ckinetics.com to learn about cCarbon membership, which includes access to this report and more.

Table of Content

Executive Summary

Introduction

North American Forestry as a Specialized Submarket within the Global Carbon Credit Landscape

NA Forestry in the VCM

Historical Trends

Supply

IFM methodologies – Tabular Deep-Dive

ARR methodologies – Tabular Deep-Dive

Demand

Bank

cCarbon Analyst’s Take

New Developments

CCP Eligibility

SBTi vs ISO

Modelling Methodology

Existing Projects

Pipeline Projects

Modelling Results

North American Compliance Offsets

Introduction

Interactive Effects Between Compliance and Voluntary Carbon Markets

Forestry California Carbon Offsets (CCOs)

Historical Trends

CCO Forestry Market Outlook

Modelling Results for Quebec Closes Offset

Forestry Washinton Carbon Offsets (WCOs)

Federal OBPS Mechanism and Offset System

IFM protocol under the Federal OBPS

Alberta TIER

British Columbia OBPS

Buy-side Perspective

Key Drivers

The evolving landscape – standards and regulations for voluntary buyers

Media reporting & reputational threats

Why the premium? Unpacking buyer preferences for local forestry offsets

Evaluating the removals trend

Navigating the Risks of Forest Carbon Projects in North America

Types of Risk

Political and Regulatory Landscape

Legal and Revocation Risks

Operational Challenges

Market Volatility

Accessibility on the Supply Side

Mitigating the Risks

Conclusion

About cCarbon

Rights to Publication

Disclaimer

 

Figure 1: Issuances by ARR & IFM Protocol by Region

Figure 2: Annual Issuance by Protocol

Figure 3: Annual Issuance by Country

Figure 4: Annual Issuance by Number of Project Issuing Credits

Figure 5: Annual Issuance by Registry

Figure 6: Annual Credit Issuance & Number of Projects Under IFM Protocol

Figure 7: Top 10 IFM Projects

Figure 8: Projects Based on Transaction Volume Under IFM Protocol

Figure 9: Top 5 ARR Projects

Figure 10: Annual Retirement by Protocol

Figure 11: Annual Retirement by Registry

Figure 12: Monthly Retirement by Protocol

Figure 13: Retirements by Sector

Figure 14: Top Retiring Entities

Figure 15: Most Retired IFM Projects

Figure 16: Most Retired ARR Projects

Figure 17: Issuances and Retirements

Figure 18: Open Volume by Protocol

Figure 19: Open Volume by Vintage

Figure 20: Average Credit Age at Retirement

Figure 21: Bank Index by Protocol

Figure 22: Surplus/Shortage Index by Protocol

Figure 23: Issuance by Protocol

Figure 24: Annual Issuance by Project

Figure 25: Annual Issuance by Vintage

Figure 26: Annual Vintage Issuance by Issuance Year

Figure 27: ARR Forecasted Supply – Existing and Pipeline Projects

Figure 28: IFM Forecasted Supply –  Existing & Pipeline Projects

Figure 29: Total Forecasted Issuances

Figure 30: Forestry CCO Issuance by DEBs vs Non-DEBs

Figure 31: Percentage Share of Forestry CCO Issuance by DEBs vs Non-DEBs

Figure 32: State Forestry CCO DEBs Issuances

Figure 33: State Forestry CCO Non-DEB Issuances

Figure 34: Top 10 Forestry CCO Owner by DEBs & Non-DEBs

Figure 35: Forestry CCO Issuance by States in America

Figure 36: Top 20 Forestry – Offset Issuances by Developer/Owner

Figure 37: CCO Retirements by Compliance Period and Other

Figure 38: CCO Retirements from Top 20 States & Share Remaining Available

Figure 39: CCO Retirements for Compliance versus Voluntary Retirements

Figure 40: Top 30 CCO Buyers by Retirement Year

Figure 41: Top 30 Projects and CCO Buyers

Figure 42: Available Remaining CCOs as a Percentage of Total Issuance by DEBs and Non-DEBs (pre-CP4)

Figure 43: Top 10 CCO DEBs Projects Issued vs Remaining Available – Pre CP4

Figure 44: Top 10 CCO Non-DEBs Projects Issued vs Remaining Available – Pre CP4

Figure 45: Map of Available Remaining CCOs by DEBs vs Non-DEBs

Figure 46: CCO Bank end of each Compliance Period – DEBs, Non-DEBs, & Combined

Figure 47: CCO Bank Index end of each Compliance Period – DEBs, Non-DEBs, & Combined

Figure 48: Modelling Results for Quebec Offsets DEBs

Figure 47: Modelling Results for Quebec Offsets Non-DEBs

Figure 48: Modelling Results for Quebec Offsets for Both BI & Price

Figure 49: Share of Different Protocols in Issuances in British Columbia

Figure 50: Forestry Offset Credits Issued by Project in British Columbia

Figure 51: Forestry Offsets Credits Retired by Project in British Columbia

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