The North American forestry carbon market is experiencing a period of dynamic change, presenting both exciting opportunities and complex challenges. Our new report offers a comprehensive analysis of this evolving landscape, providing critical insights for stakeholders. Key takeaways include the growth of Improved Forest Management (IFM) projects, with issuances up 77% annually, and the rising prominence of Afforestation, Reforestation, and Revegetation (ARR) credits, which command a price premium. The report also examines the increasing convergence of voluntary and compliance markets, driven by regulatory developments and the emergence of new programs across North America. We project significant growth in voluntary forestry credit issuances, peaking in the late 2030s, while also highlighting potential market risks. This report offers data-driven forecasts, analysis and strategic implications, empowering developers, investors, and corporations to capitalize on the growing potential of North American forestry carbon.
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North American Forestry as a Specialized Submarket within the Global Carbon Credit Landscape
IFM methodologies – Tabular Deep-Dive
ARR methodologies – Tabular Deep-Dive
North American Compliance Offsets
Interactive Effects Between Compliance and Voluntary Carbon Markets
Forestry California Carbon Offsets (CCOs)
Modelling Results for Quebec Closes Offset
Forestry Washinton Carbon Offsets (WCOs)
Federal OBPS Mechanism and Offset System
IFM protocol under the Federal OBPS
The evolving landscape – standards and regulations for voluntary buyers
Media reporting & reputational threats
Why the premium? Unpacking buyer preferences for local forestry offsets
Navigating the Risks of Forest Carbon Projects in North America
Political and Regulatory Landscape
Accessibility on the Supply Side
Figure 1: Issuances by ARR & IFM Protocol by Region
Figure 2: Annual Issuance by Protocol
Figure 3: Annual Issuance by Country
Figure 4: Annual Issuance by Number of Project Issuing Credits
Figure 5: Annual Issuance by Registry
Figure 6: Annual Credit Issuance & Number of Projects Under IFM Protocol
Figure 7: Top 10 IFM Projects
Figure 8: Projects Based on Transaction Volume Under IFM Protocol
Figure 9: Top 5 ARR Projects
Figure 10: Annual Retirement by Protocol
Figure 11: Annual Retirement by Registry
Figure 12: Monthly Retirement by Protocol
Figure 13: Retirements by Sector
Figure 14: Top Retiring Entities
Figure 15: Most Retired IFM Projects
Figure 16: Most Retired ARR Projects
Figure 17: Issuances and Retirements
Figure 18: Open Volume by Protocol
Figure 19: Open Volume by Vintage
Figure 20: Average Credit Age at Retirement
Figure 21: Bank Index by Protocol
Figure 22: Surplus/Shortage Index by Protocol
Figure 23: Issuance by Protocol
Figure 24: Annual Issuance by Project
Figure 25: Annual Issuance by Vintage
Figure 26: Annual Vintage Issuance by Issuance Year
Figure 27: ARR Forecasted Supply – Existing and Pipeline Projects
Figure 28: IFM Forecasted Supply – Existing & Pipeline Projects
Figure 29: Total Forecasted Issuances
Figure 30: Forestry CCO Issuance by DEBs vs Non-DEBs
Figure 31: Percentage Share of Forestry CCO Issuance by DEBs vs Non-DEBs
Figure 32: State Forestry CCO DEBs Issuances
Figure 33: State Forestry CCO Non-DEB Issuances
Figure 34: Top 10 Forestry CCO Owner by DEBs & Non-DEBs
Figure 35: Forestry CCO Issuance by States in America
Figure 36: Top 20 Forestry – Offset Issuances by Developer/Owner
Figure 37: CCO Retirements by Compliance Period and Other
Figure 38: CCO Retirements from Top 20 States & Share Remaining Available
Figure 39: CCO Retirements for Compliance versus Voluntary Retirements
Figure 40: Top 30 CCO Buyers by Retirement Year
Figure 41: Top 30 Projects and CCO Buyers
Figure 42: Available Remaining CCOs as a Percentage of Total Issuance by DEBs and Non-DEBs (pre-CP4)
Figure 43: Top 10 CCO DEBs Projects Issued vs Remaining Available – Pre CP4
Figure 44: Top 10 CCO Non-DEBs Projects Issued vs Remaining Available – Pre CP4
Figure 45: Map of Available Remaining CCOs by DEBs vs Non-DEBs
Figure 46: CCO Bank end of each Compliance Period – DEBs, Non-DEBs, & Combined
Figure 47: CCO Bank Index end of each Compliance Period – DEBs, Non-DEBs, & Combined
Figure 48: Modelling Results for Quebec Offsets DEBs
Figure 47: Modelling Results for Quebec Offsets Non-DEBs
Figure 48: Modelling Results for Quebec Offsets for Both BI & Price
Figure 49: Share of Different Protocols in Issuances in British Columbia
Figure 50: Forestry Offset Credits Issued by Project in British Columbia
Figure 51: Forestry Offsets Credits Retired by Project in British Columbia
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