North American Renewable Natural Gas Outlook 2035 | Insight Report | September 2025

Thursday, 11th September 2025

A comprehensive market outlook to inform long-term capital allocation and strategic planning in Renewable Natural Gas (RNG).

As North America accelerates its transition to a low-carbon energy system, RNG is emerging as a pivotal component of the decarbonization pathway. Federal and state governments are implementing ambitious mandates and incentive frameworks to expand RNG supply and integrate it into transportation, thermal, and electricity markets.

This report provides a rigorous assessment of the RNG market’s trajectory to 2035, drawing on cCarbon’s proprietary database tracking over 600 projects across the U.S. and Canada. It offers both baseline and accelerated policy-driven scenarios, enabling market participants to evaluate regulatory risk, investment opportunities, and strategic positioning.

Key Insights Include:

Regional supply and demand outlooks across North America
Production forecasts by feedstock type and utilization rates
End-use demand projections spanning transport, thermal, electricity, and emerging hydrogen applications
Incentive generation capacity and associated credit market dynamics
Comparative analysis of baseline vs. accelerated scenarios through 2035
Regulatory landscape review of key federal and subnational policies shaping market outcomes
Profiles of leading project developers and counterparties

This report provides data-driven forecasts and analyses enabling project developers, utilities, investors, and corporations to capitalize on the expanding opportunities in Renewable Natural Gas.

Intended Audience:
Executives, strategy leaders, investment teams, and policy specialists at utilities, midstream operators, producers, institutional investors, and corporate offtakers seeking robust data to guide market entry, capital allocation, and portfolio risk management in the RNG sector.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents ………………………………………………………….. 1
List of Tables …………………………………………………………………. 6
List of Figures ……………………………………………………………….. 8
Executive Summary ……………………………………………………… 10
Introduction ……………………………………………………………………………. 10
Midwest Will Continue to Lead in RNG Production in 2030 …………….. 10
Landfills Remain the Leading Source for Renewable Natural Gas
Feedstock ……………………………………………………………………………….. 11
Transport Sector Continues to be the Top User of RNG, With
Growth Expected in Thermal and Electricity Applications by 2035 …… 11
RNG Market Growth and Incentive Trends in North America …………… 11
Addressing Production Costs Despite Abundant Feedstock
Availability ……………………………………………………………………………… 11
Policy Mandates and a Supportive Market are Essential for RNG
Growth…………………………………………………………………………………… 12
Acknowledgments ……………………………………………………………………… 12
Reflections From Our Last Report …………………………………… 14
Total RNG Production Projections Remain in Similar Range …………….. 14
Increasing Volumes of RNG to Be Directed Away from the
Transportation Sector ……………………………………………………………….. 15
2025 Report Includes Projections for RNG Demand to 2035……………. 15
North America Renewable Natural Gas Market Analysis …….. 17
North America Renewable Natural Gas Market Analysis,
Production by Region 2018-2030 ……………………………………………….. 17
North American Renewable Natural Gas Market Analysis, Regional
Market Shares from 2024-2030………………………………………………….. 18
United States …………………………………………………………………………….. 18
Canada ……………………………………………………………………………………… 22
North America Renewable Natural Gas Market Analysis, Production by
Feedstock 2018-2030 …………………………………………………………………………………. 24
North America Renewable Natural Gas, Market Analysis by End-Use …….. 28
North America Renewable Natural Gas Market Analysis, Consumption by
Region 2018-2030 ……………………………………………………………………………………… 28
North America Renewable Natural Gas Market Analysis, Consumption by End-
Use 2018-2030 ………………………………………………………………………………………….. 29
RNG Consumption by Country, 2025-2030 ……………………………………………………. 31
North America Renewable Natural Gas, Market Value 2018-2030 ……………………… 33
North America Renewable Natural Gas Market Analysis, Emerging Sources of
Demand by 2035 ……………………………………………………………………………………….. 36
North America Renewable Natural Gas Analysis, Transportation Sector ….. 45
Renewable Natural Gas Consumption by CFS Market 2018-2030 ………………………. 47
Renewable Natural Gas Credit Generation by CFS Market 2018-2030 ………………… 48
Carbon Intensity Trajectory by CFS Market, 2018-2030 ……………………………………. 50
Average Credit Prices by CFS Market and RFS, 2018-2024 ………………………………… 52
Average D3 RIN Prices, 2018-2024 ……………………………………………………………….. 52
Average CFS Market Credit Prices, 2018-2024 ……………………………………………….. 52
Renewable Natural Gas Incentive Generation by CFS Market and RFS 2018-2030
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 53
Incentives Generated by CFS Markets 2018-2030 ………………………………………….. 53
Incentives Generated Under the RFS 2018-2030 ……………………………………………. 55
Clean Fuel Production Credit Incentive 2025-2029 …………………………………………. 56
North America Renewable Natural Gas Analysis, by Feedstock ……………… 59
Production by Feedstock, by Country ……………………………………………………………. 59
North American Renewable Natural Gas, Feedstock Usage 2018-2030 …………….. 62
Share of Available Feedstock Used in RNG Production ……………………………………. 65
Cost of Producing RNG Continues to Remain High …………………………………………. 68
North American Renewable Natural Gas, Accelerated Scenario …………….. 71
North American Renewable Natural Gas Production, Accelerated Scenario
2025-2030 ……………………………………………………………………………………………….. 71
North American Renewable Natural Gas Production by Source, Accelerated
Scenario 2025-2030 …………………………………………………………………………………… 72
North American Renewable Natural Gas Consumption by End-Use, Accelerated
Scenario 2025-2030 …………………………………………………………………………………… 73
North America Renewable Natural Gas, PESTLE Analysis ……………………… 76
Political Factors …………………………………………………………………………………………. 76
Economic Factors ………………………………………………………………………………………. 76
Social Factors ……………………………………………………………………………………………. 77
Technological Factors …………………………………………………………………………………. 77
Legal Factors …………………………………………………………………………………………….. 78
Environmental Factors ………………………………………………………………………………… 78
North America Renewable Natural Gas Market Analysis, Policies and
Regulatory Framework ……………………………………………………………………. 80
Existing Clean Transport Fuel Policies ……………………………………………………………. 80
Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) ……………………………………………………………………. 80
California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (CA-LCFS) ……………………………………………… 81
Oregon Clean Fuels Program (OR-CFP)………………………………………………………….. 81
Washington’s Clean Fuel Standard (WA-CFS) …………………………………………………. 81
British Columbia Low Carbon Fuel Standard (BC-LCFS) ……………………………………. 82
Canada Clean Fuel Regulation ……………………………………………………………………… 82
New Mexico Clean Transportation Fuel Program ……………………………………………. 82
Existing Policies Beyond Transportation Fuels …………………………………………………. 82
Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) ……………………………………………………………. 82
Oregon SB 98 …………………………………………………………………………………………….. 83
Washington Clean Buildings Act …………………………………………………………………… 83
California SB 1440 ……………………………………………………………………………………… 83
Section 48 Investment Tax Credit …………………………………………………………………. 84
Clean Fuels Production Credit ……………………………………………………………………… 84
British Columbia RNG Goal ………………………………………………………………………….. 84
Quebec RNG Mandate ……………………………………………………………………………….. 85
Ontario Emissions Performance Standards (EPS) ……………………………………………. 85
Canadian Federal GHG Offset Credit System ………………………………………………….. 85
Recent Developments: ……………………………………………………………………………….. 85
Minnesota CFS …………………………………………………………………………………………… 85
Illinois CFS …………………………………………………………………………………………………. 86
New York CFS (NY CFS) ……………………………………………………………………………….. 86
Michigan Senate Bill 275 – Proposed Low Carbon Fuel Standard ……………………… 86
Company Profiles …………………………………………………………………………… 88
Top 5 Project Developers …………………………………………………………………………….. 88
Waste Management …………………………………………………………………………………… 88
Archaea Energy ………………………………………………………………………………………….. 90
Ameresco ………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 92
Morrow Renewables ………………………………………………………………………………….. 93
Opal Fuels …………………………………………………………………………………………………. 94
Top 5 Offtaking Entities ……………………………………………………………………………….. 96
Shell …………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 96
Énergir ……………………………………………………………………………………………………… 97
BP ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 98
Fortis BC …………………………………………………………………………………………………… 99
Puget Sound Energy …………………………………………………………………………………. 100
Insights from Chatting with Market Participants ……………………………….. 103
Key Findings from Stakeholder Discussions …………………………………………………… 103
Financial Viability of RNG Projects: …………………………………………………………….. 103
Offtaker Uncertainty …………………………………………………………………………………. 103
Infrastructure Challenges ………………………………………………………………………….. 103
Major Barriers to RNG Adoption ………………………………………………………………… 103
Success of Dairy-Based RNG Projects ………………………………………………………….. 103
Conclusion and Outlook ………………………………………………………………… 105
Glossary and Methodology ……………………………………………………………. 106
Market Definitions……………………………………………………………………………………. 106
Methodology: Primary and Secondary Research Coupled with Modelling …………. 107
RNG.CarbonOutlook™ Model …………………………………………………………………….. 107
Facility-level Data ……………………………………………………………………………………… 108
Production Estimation ………………………………………………………………………………. 110
Pathway-level Split ……………………………………………………………………………………. 110
Review Period ………………………………………………………………………………………….. 110
Forecast Period ………………………………………………………………………………………… 111
Credit Volumes ………………………………………………………………………………………… 111
CFS Incentives ………………………………………………………………………………………….. 111
References ………………………………………………………………………………….. 112
About cCarbon …………………………………………………………………………….. 121
Rights to Publication …………………………………………………………………………………. 121
Disclaimer ………………………………………………………………………………………………. 121

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cCarbon has mapped both the demand as well as supply of SAF to size the market. The research indicates that global SAF consumption in 2022 (as per offtake agreements) stood at 494 million litres.

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North American Renewable Natural Gas Outlook 2035 | Insight Report | September 2025

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