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RGGI

RGGI Post-Third Program Review Demand-Supply Outlook 2040 | Analyst Note | September 2025

Friday, 12th September 2025

The third program review of the RGGI program was released in July 2025 and brings in many changes including a tighter emissions cap starting 2027, removes ECR, and adds additional Cost Containment. These changes come in the backdrop of significant challenges to decarbonisation as federal actions disrupt renewable energy, causing numerous wind projects to stall and constrain decarbonization efforts.
With this backdrop, cCarbon uses its CarbonOutlook model to present a demand-supply outlook under three scenarios till 2040 with short and long term projections for prices and emissions.

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cCarbon has mapped both the demand as well as supply of SAF to size the market. The research indicates that global SAF consumption in 2022 (as per offtake agreements) stood at 494 million litres.
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