CORSIA has entered its first mandatory phase (2024–2026), and for the first time, airlines face real offsetting obligations for international emissions. Our latest analyst note unpacks the demand outlook—driven heavily by a handful of major markets—as well as the emerging supply crunch, regulatory uncertainty, and the limited near-term role of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF). Based on our in-house modelling, we explore how policy choices, market readiness, and Article 6 dynamics will shape compliance risk and carbon credit demand.