US Carbon and CF Markets in the Context of Presidential EO and Macroeconomic Uncertainties | Analyst Note | May 2025

Friday, 9th May 2025

The analyst note addresses the North American clean fuel and cap-and-trade markets, with a particular focus on California’s LCFS, RFS, California’s cap-and-trade program, and RGGI. It explores the effects of macroeconomic uncertainties and the April 8 Presidential Executive Order, which has introduced significant headline risk. The note presents cCarbon’s risk assessment framework, which evaluates 22 key drivers across federal, state, and macroeconomic levels, assigning severity and probability scores. This framework allows stakeholders to better navigate the market’s uncertainties, providing insights into the potential impacts of political, regulatory, and economic changes on clean fuel and cap-and-trade programs. The Note also synthesizes perspectives from experts who spoke at cCarbon’s 15th April webinar.

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cCarbon has mapped both the demand as well as supply of SAF to size the market. The research indicates that global SAF consumption in 2022 (as per offtake agreements) stood at 494 million litres.

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US Carbon and CF Markets in the Context of Presidential EO and Macroeconomic Uncertainties | Analyst Note | May 2025

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