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WA CFS Outlook Adjusted to Reflect Current Scenario and Revised Assumptions | Forecast Update | March 2026

Tuesday, 3rd March 2026
Prices are projected to rise faster in 2026, driven by HB 1409–led CI tightening, limited ZEV incentives, and a contraction in biofuel supply—evidenced by a 35.13% YoY decline in Q3 2025 and a drop in renewable diesel blending from 20.53% to 7.49%. On the biofuel side, these trends point to a supply slowdown amid relatively weaker incentives compared to competing CFS markets. Firmer credit prices, however, are expected to gradually restore blending economics from 2026 onward. Consequently, the 2030 bank outlook deteriorates materially: shift toward tighter market conditions across scenarios, with balances trending closer to deficit territory under baseline and other cases.
Detailed price projections and bank balances are available exclusively to our Pro clients.
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cCarbon has mapped both the demand as well as supply of SAF to size the market. The research indicates that global SAF consumption in 2022 (as per offtake agreements) stood at 494 million litres.
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