The Washington Clean Fuel Standard (WA CFS) targets a 20% reduction in the carbon intensity (CI) of transportation fuels by 2037. After just 1 year in existence, the program in influencing fuel mix in the state and has seen a significant rise in renewable diesel (RD) usage. Electric Vehicles continue to grow as well, driven by complementary policies. Market dynamics have seen initial credit prices at $106.66 in August 2023, stabilized at $61.85 in April 2024. cCarbon’s forecasts maintain a price of $45 as the market continues to stabilize. Looking ahead to 2031, we explored three scenarios in this analyst note: a likely transformation with moderate RD and ZEV (zero-emission vehicle) growth, where the credit bank reaches 4.81 million; a slow transformation where delayed adoption depletes the credit bank by 2028; and an aggressive transformation with rapid RD and ZEV rollouts maintaining a robust credit bank.

This analyst note is a part of series that cCarbon.info publishes on Washington CFS Market.