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Washington CFS Market Outlook 2031 | Analyst Note | May 2024
Thursday, 23rd May 2024

The Washington Clean Fuel Standard (WA CFS) targets a 20% reduction in the carbon intensity (CI) of transportation fuels by 2037. After just 1 year in existence, the program in influencing fuel mix in the state and has seen a significant rise in renewable diesel (RD) usage. Electric Vehicles continue to grow as well, driven by complementary policies. Market dynamics have seen initial credit prices at $106.66 in August 2023, stabilized at $61.85 in April 2024. cCarbon’s forecasts maintain a price of $45 as the market continues to stabilize. Looking ahead to 2031, we explored three scenarios in this analyst note: a likely transformation with moderate RD and ZEV (zero-emission vehicle) growth, where the credit bank reaches 4.81 million; a slow transformation where delayed adoption depletes the credit bank by 2028; and an aggressive transformation with rapid RD and ZEV rollouts maintaining a robust credit bank.

This analyst note is a part of series that cCarbon.info publishes on Washington CFS Market.

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cCarbon has mapped both the demand as well as supply of SAF to size the market. The research indicates that global SAF consumption in 2022 (as per offtake agreements) stood at 494 million litres.
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