Washington C&I: Outlook Post Referendum for Continuation of Program | Analyst Note | December 2024

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Washington C&I: Outlook Post Referendum for Continuation of Program | Analyst Note | December 2024

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Washington C&I: Outlook Post Referendum for Continuation of Program | Analyst Note | December 2024

Friday, 20th December 2024

In this Analyst Note, cCarbon provides our outlook on the Washington Cap and Invest program’s emissions, demand-supply factors, and price trajectory in the aftermath of the failure of Ballot Initiative 2117. Our outlook extends to 2045 and considers both a linked WA-QC-CA market, and a standalone Washington program. We examine the underlying factors influencing emissions across sectors and how they align with state reduction targets. Key insights are drawn from the surprising dynamics observed in Auction 8, where pricing and participant behavior diverged from historical trends, signaling potential shifts in market sentiment. Overall, we construct a comprehensive demand-supply outlook for Washington’s cap-and-invest program, factoring in possible adjustments due to linkage, economic variables, and regulatory influences.

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cCarbon has mapped both the demand as well as supply of SAF to size the market. The research indicates that global SAF consumption in 2022 (as per offtake agreements) stood at 494 million litres.

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