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  • Washington HB1975 Workshop and Market Outlook 2027 | Analyst Note | November 2025
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Washington HB1975 Workshop and Market Outlook 2027 | Analyst Note | November 2025

Monday, 3rd November 2025

The Washington Department of Ecology’s HB1975 rulemaking introduces significant amendments to the state’s Cap-and-Invest Program, focused on expanding allowance supply and easing near-term price pressures. Key revisions extend the cap trajectory by one year, add retroactive vintages 2023–2025, and propose a major Allowance Price Containment Reserve (APCR) infusion in 2027, equivalent to 2–5% of the 2027–2040 budgets. These measures collectively moderate program stringency and create a smoother emissions reduction pathway. With this backdrop, cCarbon uses its Carbon Outlook model to present a demand-supply outlook under four scenarios with short- and long-term projections for prices and emissions.

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cCarbon has mapped both the demand as well as supply of SAF to size the market. The research indicates that global SAF consumption in 2022 (as per offtake agreements) stood at 494 million litres.
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