WCI: California and Quebec’s Emissions Outlook 2025-2026 | Insight | April 2025

Friday, 11th April 2025

This Insight report provides a comprehensive view on recent emissions trends for each covered sector in both California and Quebec. Following the historic analysis, it provides a forecast for emission trends for each region in the near term through 2026. Future reductions hinge on growth in EVs, renewable diesel, and clean energy infrastructure. Projections show steady annual declines, with challenges in sustaining regulatory momentum.

The report dives deep into the drivers influencing the performance and decarbonization potential of each sector.

Contents

Review of Historical Emissions Forecast
Transportation Emissions
Power Sector Emissions
Natural Gas Supplier Emissions
Hard to Abate Sectors Deep-Dive
Overall Forecast for California and Quebec

List of Figures

Figure 1. Sector-wise Breakdown of Emissions in California.……………………………………….……..….7
Figure 2: Sector-wise Breakdown of Emissions in Quebec..……………………………………………………8
Figure 3 : California Transportation Entity Emissions.………………………………………………….……….11
Figure 4 : Share of Zero Emission Vehicles in Quebec – Historic and Forecasted……..……………13
Figure 5 : Quebec Historic and Forecasted Renewable Diesel and Biodiesel Blend……………….14
Figure 6 : Share of Zero Emission Vehicles in Historic and Forecasted Total California Vehicle Stock Forecast for 2024-2026………………………………………………………………………………………….………….…..15
Figure 7 : California Historic and Forecasted Renewable Diesel and Biodiesel Blend…………….16
Figure 8 : WCI Transportation Emissions Historic and Forecasted for 2024-2026…………………17
Figure 9 : Electricity Utilities Emission Comparison………………………………………………………………19
Figure 10 : California Solar Capacity – Historic and Forecasted for 2024-2026………………………20
Figure 11 : California Battery Capacity Historic and Forecasted for 2024……………………………..21
Figure 12 : California Natural Gas Generation – Historic and Forecasted for 2024-2026………22
Figure 13 : Historical California Electricity Generation 2018-2023………………………………………..23
Figure 14 : California Power Plant Entity-level Generation Overview…………………………………….24
Figure 15 : California Power Plant Entity-Level Emissions………………………………………………………25
Figure 16 : California Power Plant Emission Intensity Overview…………………………….………………26
Figure 17 : Electricity Imports from North-Western States………………………………..………………..…27
Figure 18 : Electricity Imports from Southern States………………………………………………………………27
Figure 19 : California Electricity Imports – Historical and Forecasted 2024-2026…………………..28
Figure 20 : CA Electricity Emissions Historic and 2024-2026 Forecast………………………………….…29
Figure 21 : Natural Gas Companies’ Emissions over the Years………………………………………………..31
Figure 22 : RNG Plant Status…….…………………………………………………………………………………………..…32
Figure 23 : California Entity-level Analysis for Natural Gas Suppliers Historical………………………33
Figure 24 : California Entity-level Analysis for Natural Gas Emissions Historical……………………..34
Figure 25 : California Entity-level Analysis for Natural Gas Emission Intensities Historical………35
Figure 26 : Natural Gas Emission Historic and Forecast for 2024-2026………………………………..….36
Figure 27 : Oil and Gas Companies’ Historic Emissions……………………………………………………………38
Figure 28 : California Entity-level Analysis for Oil and Gas Production……………………………………………39
Figure 29 : California Entity-level Analysis for Oil and Gas Emissions…………….…………………………..…..40
Figure 30 : California Entity-level Oil and Gas Emission Intensity………………….…………..……………………41
Figure 31 : California Refineries’ Historic Emissions……………………………………..…………………………………42
Figure 32 : California Entity-level Analysis of Refinery Output…………………………………………………………43
Figure 33 : California Entity-level Analysis of Refinery Emissions…………………………………………………….44
Figure 34 : California Entity-level Analysis of Refinery Emission Intensities……………………………………45
Figure 35 : Cement Companies Historic Emissions………………………………………………………………………….46
Figure 36 : Quebec Other Emissions Historic and Forecast 2024-2026…………………………………………..47
Figure 37 : Quebec Other Emissions Historic and Forecast 2024-2026…………………………………………..48
Figure 38 : California Historic Emissions and 2024-2026 Forecast……………………………………………….…50
Figure 39 : Quebec Historic Emissions and 2024-26 Forecast Statistics………………………………………….51
Figure 40 : WCI Historic Emissions and 2024-2026 Forecast Statistics………………………………………….52

List of Tables

Table 1. California Emissions Change by Magnitude and Percentage.…………………………………….……..….7
Table 2: Quebec Emissions Change by Magnitude and Percentage..…………………………………………………8
Table 3 : Transportation Companies’ Emissions in California.………………………………………………….……….11
Table 4 : Share of Zero Emission Vehicles in Historic and Forecasted Total Quebec Vehicle Stock Forecast for 2024-2026……..………………………………………………………………………………………………………………13
Table 5 : Quebec Historic and Forecasted Renewable Diesel and Biodiesel Blend…………………………….14
Table 6 : Share of Zero Emission Vehicles in Historic and Forecasted Total California Vehicle Stock Forecast for 2024-2026………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………15
Table 7 : California Historic and Forecasted Renewable Diesel and Biodiesel Blend………………..………..16
Table 8 : WCI Transportation Emissions Historic and Forecasted for 2024-2026…………………………..….17
Table 9 : CA Electricity Emission Statistics…………………………………………………………………………………………..19
Table 10 : California Solar Capacity – Historic and Forecasted for 2024-2026…………………………………….20
Table 11 : California Battery Capacity Historic and Forecasted for 2024…………………………………………….21
Table 12 : California Natural Gas Generation – Historic and Forecasted for 2024-2026……………………..22
Table 13 : California Electricity Imports – Historical and Forecasted 2024-2026 ……………………………..28
Table 14 : CA Electricity Emissions Historic and 2024-2026 Forecast……………………………………………….…29
Table 15: CA Natural Gas Companies’ Emission Statistics………………………………………….……………………….31
Table 16 : CA Natural Gas Emissions : Historic and Forecast for 2024-2026……………………………………..36
Table 17 : CA Oil and Gas Emissions Historic Emission Statistics…………………………………………………………38
Table 18 : CA Refineries’ Historic Emission Statistics……………………………………………………………………….…42
Table 19 : CA Cement Emissions Historic Emission Statistics……………………………………………………………..46
Table 20 : California Historic Emissions and 2024-26 Forecast………………………………………………………..…50
Table 21 : Quebec Historic Emission and 2024-2026 Forecast…………….…………………………………………….51
Table 22 : WCI Historic Emissions and 2024-2026 Forecast……………………………………………………………….52

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