WCI: California and Quebec’s Emissions Outlook 2025-2027 | Insight Report | December 2025

Wednesday, 24th December 2025

This Insight report provides a comprehensive view on recent emissions trends for each covered sector in both California and Quebec. Following the historic analysis, it provides a forecast for emission trends for each region in the near term through 2026. Future reductions hinge on growth in EVs, renewable diesel, and clean energy infrastructure. Projections show steady annual declines, with challenges in sustaining regulatory momentum.

The report dives deep into the drivers influencing the performance and decarbonization potential of each sector.

WCI: California and Quebec’s Emissions Outlook 2025-2027

Review of Historical Emissions Forecast
Transportation Emissions
Power Sector Emissions
Natural Gas Suppliers Emissions
Hard to Abate Sectors Deep-Dive
Overall Forecast for California and Quebec

List of Figures

Figure 1 : Sector-Wise Breakdown of Emissions in California …………………….………………………………………..….7
Figure 2 : Sector-Wise Breakdown of Emissions in Quebec..……………………………………………………………………8
Figure 3 : California Transportation Emissions over the Years.………………………………………………….……….….11
Figure 4 : California Transportation Entity Emissions…………………………………………………….………………………12
Figure 5 : California Entity-level Analysis for Natural Gas Suppliers – Historical……..……………..……………….13
Figure 6 : Vehicles Miles Travelled in California ………………..………………..………………..………………..…………….14
Figure 7 : California Historical Renewable Diesel and Biodiesel Blend………….………….…..…..………………..…15
Figure 8 : Quarterly Sales of Renewable Diesel in California …………………..……………………..………………….….16
Figure 9 : Quarterly Sales of Zero Emission Vehicles in California ………………………..……………………..…….…17
Figure 10 : Share of Zero Emission Vehicles in California – Historic and Forecasted ………………………………18
Figure 11 : California’s Historic and Forecasted Renewable Diesel Share in Diesel Pool…………………………19
Figure 12 : Quarterly Sales of Zero Emission Vehicles in Quebec ………………………………………………………….20
Figure 13 : Gasoline Sales Volumes in Quebec in Metric Units……………..……………………..……………………..…21
Figure 14 : Gasoline Sales Volumes in Quebec in Imperial Units…………………….. ………..……………………..…..22
Figure 15 : WCI Transportation Emissions Historic and Forecasted for 2025-2027………………………………..23
Figure 16 : California In State Electricity Generation Emissions over the Years………………………………………25
Figure 17 : Electricity Utilities Emission Comparison by Facility ………………………………………………………….…26
Figure 18 : California Solar Capacity – Historic and Forecasted for 2025-2027……………………………………….27
Figure 19 : California Battery Capacity Historic and Forecasted for 2025……………..………………..……………..28
Figure 20 : California In State Electricity Generation from Natural Gas (in TWh)……………………………………29
Figure 21 : California In State Electricity Generation from Coal (in TWh)……………………………………………….30
Figure 22 : California In State Electricity Generation from Nuclear Energy (in TWh)……………………..……….31
Figure 23 : California Natural Gas Generation – Historic and Forecasted for 2025-2027…………….…..…….32
Figure 24 : California Power Plant Entity-Level Emissions ………………………………………………………..……………33
Figure 25 : California Power Plant Emission Intensity Overview ……………………………..…………..………………..34
Figure 26 : California Imported Electricity Emissions over the Years…………………..……………..……………….…35
Figure 27 : Electricity Imported in California by Facilities…………………………….…..……………………..……………36
Figure 28 : California Entity-level Electricity Imported Overview …………………………….…..………………………37
Figure 29 : California Electricity Imports (GWh) – Historical………………..………………………………………………..38
Figure 30 : Electricity Imports from North-Western States By Energy Source………………………………..………39
Figure 31 : Electricity Imports from Southern States By Energy Source………………………………………………..39
Figure 32 : California Electricity Emissions Historic and 2025-2027 Forecast ………………………………………..40
Figure 33 : In State Electricity Generation Emissions in Quebec …………….…………………………..…………………41
Figure 34 : CO2 emission rate (kg CO2e/MWh) of Hydro-Québec (ensemble du réseau)..…………………..41
Figure 35 : Hydro-Québec’s Generation Mix 2024 vs 2023 …………………………………………………………………..42
Figure 36: : California Natural Gas Emissions over the Years…………………………………………………………………44
Figure 37 : Natural Gas Companies’ Emissions over the Years ………………………………………………………………45
Figure 38 : California Natural Gas Residential Consumption (MMcf)……………………………………………………..46
Figure 39 : Natural Gas Deliveries to Commercial Consumers (Including Vehicle Fuel through 1996) in California (MMcf)……………………………..…..…………………………..…..…………………………..…..………………………….47
Figure 40 : Heat Pump Installations in California …………………………………………………………..……………………..48
Figure 41 : California Entity-level Analysis for Natural Gas Suppliers Historical ……………….………………….…50
Figure 42 : California Entity-level Analysis for Natural Gas Emission Intensities Historical…………….……….51
Figure 43 : Natural gas Emission Historic and Forecast for 2025-2027 ………………………………………………..52
Figure 44 : California Oil and Gas Emissions over the Years…………………………………………..……………………… 54
Figure 45 : California Entity-level Analysis for Oil and Gas Emissions ……………………………………………………. 55
Figure 46 : California Entity-level Oil and Gas Emission Intensity ……………………………………………………………56
Figure 47 : California Field Production of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels per Day)…………………………………….57
Figure 48 : California Refineries Emissions over the Years………………………..……………………..…………………….58
Figure 49 : Refineries’ Historic Emissions By Company (Top 5)………………………..………………………………………59
Figure 50 : Refineries Throughput in California…………………………………………..………………………….…..…………..61
Figure 51 : California Entity-level Analysis of Refinery Emissions ………………………………………………………..……62
Figure 52 : California Entity-level Analysis of Refinery Emission Intensities …………………………………..…………63
Figure 53 : California Cement Plant Emissions over the Years………………………………..…………………………………64
Figure 54 : Cement Companies Historic Emissions …………………………………………………………..………………………65
Figure 55 : California Cement Production (Units: Index 2017=100, Not Seasonally Adjusted)……………….…66
Figure 56 : Quebec Other Emissions Historic and Forecast 2025-2027………………………………………..……………67
Figure 57 : CARB’s Adjusted Cap in line with 40% Target…………………………………..………………..……………………69
Figure 58 : California Historic Emissions and 2025-2027 Forecast ……………………………………………………………70
Figure 59 : Quebec Historic Emissions and 2025-27 Forecast Statistics …………………………………………………..71
Figure 60 : WCI Historic Emissions and 2025-2027 Forecast Statistics ……………………………………………………..72

List of Tables

Table 1. California Emissions Change by Magnitude and Percentage.…………………………………….……..…..7
Table 2: Quebec Emissions Change by Magnitude and Percentage..………………………………………………….8
Table 3 : Transportation Companies’ Emissions in California.………………………………………………….………..12
Table 4 : Vehicles Miles Travelled in California………………………………………………………………………………….14
Table 5 : California Historic Renewable Diesel and Biodiesel Blend…………………………………………………..15
Table 6 : Quarterly Sales of Renewable Diesel in California (Gallons) ………………………………………………16
Table 7 : Quarterly Sales of Zero Emission Vehicles in California ………………..……………………………………17
Table 8 : Share of Zero Emission Vehicles in California, Historical and Forecasted for 2025-2027 …..18
Table 9 : California Historic and Forecasted Renewable Diesel Share in Diesel Pool ………………………..19
Table 10 : Quarterly Sales of Zero Emission Vehicles in Quebec ……………………………………………………….20
Table 11 : Gasoline Sales Volumes in Quebec in Metric Units …………………………………………………………..21
Table 12 : Gasoline Sales Volumes in Quebec in Imperial Units…………………………………………………………22
Table 13 : WCI Transportation Emissions Historic and Forecasted for 2025-2027…………………………….23
Table 14 : California Electricity Utility Emission Statistics ……………….…………………………………………………26
Table 15: California Solar Capacity – Historic and Forecasted for 2025-2027…………………………………….27
Table 16 : California Battery Capacity Historic and Forecasted for 2025 ………………………………………….28
Table 17 : California In State Electricity Generation from Natural Gas (in TWh)………………………………..29
Table 18 : California In State Electricity Generation from Coal (in TWh)………………………….………………..30
Table 19 : California In State Electricity Generation from Nuclear Energy (in TWH)……………………….…31
Table 20 : California Natural Gas Generation – Historic and Forecasted for 2025-2027……………………32
Table 21 : Emissions from Electricity Imported in California by Facilities……………………………………..……36
Table 22 : California Electricity Imports from Coal and Natural Gas – Historical……….……………………….38
Table 23 : California Electricity Imports – Historical…………………………………………………………………………..38
Table 24 : California Electricity Emissions Historic and 2025-2027 Forecast.……………………….……..…….40
Table 25 : CO2 emission rate (kg CO2e/MWh) of Hydro-Québec (ensemble du réseau)…………………..41
Table 26 : CO2 emission rate (kg CO2e/MWh) of Hydro-Québec from Company Disclosure………..….42
Table 27 : California Natural gas Companies’ Emission Statistics ……………………………………………………..45
Table 28 : California Natural Gas Residential Consumption (MMcf)…………………………………………………..46
Table 29 : California Natural Gas Deliveries to Commercial Consumers (Including Vehicle Fuel through 1996) in California (MMcf)………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..47
Table 30 : Proposed Emissive Sale Limits………………………………………………………………………………………….49
Table 31 : California Natural Gas Emissions : Historic and Forecast for 2025-2027 ………..…………..….52
Table 32 : California Field Production of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels per Day)……………………………….57
Table 33 : California Refineries’ Historic Emission Statistics By Facility (Top 5)………………………………..59
Table 34 : California Refineries Throughput (Barrels Per Month), Source: California Resource Commission ……………………..……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..61
Table 35 : California Cement Emissions Historic Emission Statistics …………………..……………………………65
Table 36 : California Cement Production (Units: Index 2017=100, Not Seasonally Adjusted)……….…66
Table 37 : Quebec Other Emissions Historic and Forecast 2025-2027 …………………………………………….67
Table 38 : California Historic Emissions and 2025-27 Forecast ………………………………………………………..70
Table 39 : Quebec Historic Emission and 2025-2027 Forecast Statistics ………………………………………….71
Table 40 : WCI Historic Emissions and 2025-2027 Forecast ……………………………………………………………..72

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WCI: California and Quebec’s Emissions Outlook 2025-2027 | Insight Report | December 2025

Table of Contents

List of Figures

List of Tables

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