CUPERTINO, CALIFORNIA, UNITED STATES, October 13, 2023 — The North American renewable diesel market is on the verge of substantial growth, projected to surge from $10.7 billion in 2022 to a staggering $25.8 billion by 2030, boasting an impressive CAGR of 11.6%. This meteoric rise is attributed to mounting demand driven by strict emissions regulations and government mandates for clean fuels.

Clean fuel standards in Western US states (Canada, Oregon and Washington), British Columbia, and the nationwide Clean Fuels Regulation in Canada are projected to drive nearly 75% of the market demand by 2030. These regions offer lucrative incentives in addition to benefits in the US due to the IRA.

Feedstock availability is anticipated to be a focal point, given a 35-billion-liter refining capacity increase expected by the decade’s end. While 60% of RD is currently being produced from waste products like UCO and tallow, tightening supplies could lead to heightened reliance on vegetable oils. Feedstock prices, which account for over 80% of the production cost, are also expected to increase in the coming years. However, with the requisite carbon intensity reductions, producers could reap enough benefits through CFS programs and federal initiatives to ensure healthy margins.

The North American renewable diesel market is fiercely competitive, with major oil and gas players leading investments and capacity expansion. Collaborations across the value chain, particularly between fuel producers and feedstock suppliers, are fostering market penetration.

cCarbon’s report “NORTH AMERICA RENEWABLE DIESEL OUTLOOK 2030” delves deeper into the strategies, challenges, and opportunities in this rapidly evolving industry. The analysis is rooted in comprehensive market research, featuring data collection on renewable diesel facilities across North America, research encompassing qualitative and quantitative analyses, stakeholder interviews, regulatory scrutiny, competitive landscape assessment, feedstock evaluation, and technology trend analysis. This multifaceted approach ensures a comprehensive understanding of the North American renewable diesel market.

To learn more: https://www.ccarbon.info/insight/north-american-renewable-diesel-outlook-2030/

Gabriel Stoltzfus
cCarbon
insights@cCarbon.info