The highest sell-side risk is estimated for avoidance credits, including both technology-based legacy credits and recent nature-based credits with co-benefits

cCarbon, a leading provider of business intelligence for environmental markets, has released their highly anticipated forecast for the global carbon credit market. This comprehensive report offers an in-depth analysis of the current state of the global carbon offset market and presents a nuanced outlook for the future development of the market under four distinct scenarios.

The report reveals significant contrasts in the futures of various carbon credits. Offsets from REDD+ and Cookstove projects, valued for their co-benefits in corporate storytelling, face high risks. In contrast, carbon removal credits, which emphasize permanence as a hallmark of quality, present significant opportunities.

Past editions of this report have pointed to trends well ahead of time, including the price bubble bursting in 2022, the corporate difficulties in using REDD+, and the emergence of removal credits as the strong preference for reputationally sensitive corporate actors.

“The voluntary carbon market is at a critical juncture, facing both challenges and opportunities,” said Harry Horner, Head of Strategy at cCarbon. “This report highlights the attractive environment for investment in the right removal projects, but the high risk built into balance-sheets through further investment into SDG offsets. Many firms will be caught out by this shift, over the next several years – depending on which of our scenarios comes to the fore.”

“Understanding the future of a market as uncertain as this, with so many complex interrelationships, and dynamic processes that are still being defined has been a fantastic challenge for our modelling team,” added Rohan Nongpiur, Senior Market Lead for Offsets at cCarbon. “By providing data-driven insights on potential market trajectories, we hope to enable more informed decision-making and mitigate risks as the market continues to mature.”

The report leverages cCarbon’s proprietary data on voluntary carbon market transactions, covering up to 10% of the current global market, along with extensive market research and stakeholder interviews. It offers a nuanced view of how factors like regulatory changes, emerging technologies, and shifting corporate priorities may shape the global carbon credit through 2030.

The report is available for purchase on the cCarbon website, or accessible to cCarbon’s subscribers, here: https://www.ccarbon.info/insight/global-carbon-credit-market-forecast-insight-report-june-2024/

About cCarbon
cCarbon, a division of cKinetics, has been providing business intelligence and analytics for global environmental markets since 2012, covering compliance and voluntary carbon markets, sustainable fuels, and other environmental commodities. It specializes in providing reliable in-depth research and tailored solutions for decarbonization, compliance strategies, and climate investments, aiming to be the foundational source of insights that support business decisions in environmental markets.

Rohan Nongpiur
cCarbon (cKinetics)
insights@ccarbon.info
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