1. Total Weekly Volume of 2.24 M tons -71% WoW change.
2. RGGI ICE weekly average settlement price was $13.90, -0.8% WoW.

Quick Summary:

RGGI’s future prices have dropped since June 3rd, with the V22 Dec 22 dropping from $14.15 to $14.05 and Jun22 dropping from $13.93 to $13.82. The drop of 0.8% can be attributed to weak market sentiments, with the May CPI at 8.6%, a 41-year high, and consumer sentiments slumping to a record low. The Nasdaq Composite Index and S&P 500 have tumbled 12% and 10% since June 2nd. US carbon markets, RGGI and CCAs have been safe havens during the current bear market.

RGGI price fall after high auction settlement price

RGGI Volumes remain low (-71% WoW)

Market Fundamentals

Compliance entities increases net long positions and Managed Money increases net-short positions

An analysis of traders’ positions from CFTC data gives us an indication of market sentiments. Last week, Compliance entities increased their net long positions, while managed money increased their net short positions.

Compliance Entities (Net Long: 0.7 M tons):
Increased long positions by 2.7 M tons 
Increased short positions by 2 M tons.

Managed Money (Net Short: 0.62 M tons ):
Increased long positions by 0.25 M tons 
Increased short positions by 0.87 M tons

The RGGI  remains strong despite a very pessimistic bear market. Virginia and Pennsylvania’s continuation continues to be under pressure. We believe the states will likely continue to be a part of the coalition. External factors will continue  to impact the market, though the prices will likely continue to trade at current levels.

Analyst: Craig Rocha (cmrocha@californiacarbon.info