Canada CFR: Evolving Credit Markets, Regulatory Shifts, and Future Outlook

Thursday, 9th October 2025

10:00 am PT

Webinar Highlights:

• Regulatory Design and Market Developments: Gain an updated understanding of the regulatory and market developments based on the upcoming CFR reporting.

• Supply, Demand, and Price Forecasts: Examine updated forecasts for credit supply and demand for 2024–2030. Gain insights into current credit trading activity, price trends, and potential credit bank scenarios forming in the next year of the program.

• Zero-Emission Vehicles (ZEVs) and Biofuels Outlook: Explore how ZEV deployment and low-carbon fuel adoption are accelerating under CFR and the different scenarios at play here.

Don’t miss this opportunity to stay informed and ahead of the curve as the CFR enters its next phase of maturity. We look forward to your participation.

Panellist:

Griffin Swanson
Vice President, Low Carbon Fuel Credit Development, BMO Capital Markets

Canada’s Clean Energy Transition: Policy Shifts, Market Insights, and Projections

On September 5, 2025, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a suite of policy measures aimed at accelerating Canada’s clean energy transition. The package includes a $370 million biofuel production incentive, a suspension of the 2026 Electric Vehicle Availability Standard (EVAS) target, and support for agricultural producers, signaling a strategic response to current market conditions, and changing trade dynamics for Canada’s biofuel and feedstock producers.

Key Policy Changes: Strengthening Biofuels and Adjusting ZEV Mandates

One of the key elements of the September announcement is the introduction of amendments to the Clean Fuel Regulations. These amendments represent the first substantial modification to the CFR since its implementation in July 2023. They are designed to enhance the resilience of Canada’s biofuel sector while maintaining the country’s focus on emissions reductions. This move is a direct response to the challenges facing Canadian biofuel producers, particularly in light of policy shifts in the U.S. that have put domestic producers at a competitive disadvantage.

Additionally, the government revealed a $370 million biofuel production incentive to support Canadian biodiesel and renewable diesel producers from January 2026 to December 2027. This incentive, which will provide per-liter production support with facility caps of 300 million liters, aims to mitigate the effects of U.S. policy changes on Canadian biofuel production.

In a notable policy shift, the Prime Minister also announced the suspension of the 2026 Electric Vehicle Availability Standard (EVAS) target, which required 20% of vehicle sales to be zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs). The decision also initiates a 60-day regulatory review to assess the feasibility of the 2035 target for 100% ZEV sales, introducing uncertainty about future requirements. Furthermore, the Quebec government has scaled back its 2035 ZEV mandate, reducing its target to 90% and including plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) in the target.

How to Join

This webinar is open to cCarbon’s Essential and Analytics Pro members subscribed to our clean fuels markets. Can’t make it live? No problem – the recording and slides will be available in the cCarbon Webinar Archives. Not a member and still interested in attending? Sign up for our Essential Plan to get access to this webinar and a growing library of premium content. You can also register your interest below and we’ll reach out with more details.