US Carbon and Clean Fuel Markets in the Context of Presidential EO and Macroeconomic Uncertainties

Tuesday, 15th April 2025

10:00 am PT

In light of April 8th’s Presidential Executive Order “Protecting American Energy From State Overreach”, as well as volatility coming from changing macro-economic variables, cCarbon is replacing our regular Pre-Auction Analysis and Regulatory Updates webinar. Instead, next Tuesday’s presentation will cover North American compliance carbon and clean fuel programs in the context of the EO and macro forces, seeking to provide a framework for risk assessment in the near/mid term.

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In summary, April 8th’s Executive Order asks the Attorney General to:

– Identify all State and local laws ‘burdening domestic energy resources’.

– Identify state laws that address climate change, environmental justice, emissions, or carbon pricing.

– Stop the enforcement of such laws, where feasible.

– The AG is set to submit a report on this action within 60 days and recommend any additional Presidential or legislative action necessary to stop their enforcement.

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US state level climate policies could get impacted by this directive. These policies, particularly market-driven programs, are also being impacted by recent macro-economic changes and changing political landscape (downside economic risk, changing tariff regime, changes at the EPA, etc) . Together, these dynamics will shape the near to mid-term outlook for programs like WCI cap and trade, WA cap and invest, RGGI, CA LCFS, and many others.

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On April 15th, cCarbon analysts and advisors will share views by taking a zoomed-out view, with a mid-term horizon. We will examine:

A) Possible end-states in a 2-3 year timeframe.

B) The extent of downside-risks to various programs and their operations.

We expect things to remain volatile for the near term, but through this framework we will share probabilities for different outcomes and unpack the factors that will change those probabilities.

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This webinar is available for cCarbon members only. If you are interested in learning about our services please reach out or simply register for the presentation and we will contact you! *For those of you looking for auction expectations, we will be releasing a note in the coming days.

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