Technical:

• ICE V15 benchmark dips under 4-week MA as auction approaches, OTC spot should follow suit
• Funding rate peaks and troughs lower in this cycle than last, suggest weaker fundamentals
• July ICE OI build-up exceeds April clearing, points to higher spot pressure

Fundamental:

• Projected 2015 surplus reduced 385,177t under latest production-based update
• Sectorial demand outlook neutral, with likely bullishness in refinery sector canceling out weak OG drilling outlooks and effects of mild weather

Also featuring policy dashboard and calendar of key dates.

Download Weekly Outlook for Jul 20, 2015 (PDF)