DEBs: $32.38; non-DEBs: $14.71
No data on annual retirements; 63.65M for CP3 (2018-2020)
Approx $0.5 Billion for DEBs; $2 Billion for Non-DEBs till CP3
cCarbon’s initial VCM coverage was driven out of the urgent need for price transparency, fulfilled through our VCM Pricing Window – built on aggregated average pricing from real transactions of data partners.
As the market has matured, pricing is still opaque but the real challenge and most valuable insight lies in forecasting what the market will look like in 2030 and 2050. Including determining which credit types will still be widely accepted and used, also what scale the market will be operating at – single, tens, or hundreds of billions. Nationalized projects and usage towards NDC contributions may have a vital say in this, as will the myriad of compliance markets that are likely to dip into and interact with the VCM, its offsets acting as the connective tissue of the carbon world.
Forecast | Target Variable | Horizon | Resolution | Updated | Since & Track Record |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Supply-Demand Forecast | Issuances and retirements | Until 2030 | Quarterly | Twice a year | Since 2022; expectations of exponential market growth are misplaced as demand will not keep up with issuances - verified |
cCarbon’s coverage had a ground-breaking effect on the CCO market. We were the first firm to provide pricing (broker averages) and reflect this back to the market, these marks were widely-used as forward contract prices from 2015 onwards. With the advent of major influence of the Environmental Justice community, offsets are now split by state of origin – creating two sub-markets: DEBs and Non-DEBs. Furthermore, CCOs are seeing increasing voluntary demand as the credits are perceived as high-quality and locally attractive offsets. The resulting interplay will prove a prototype for voluntary-compliance market interdynamics in offsets.
Forecast | Target Variable | Horizon | Resolution | Updated | Since & Track Record |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
WCI Offsets Price Forecast | Issuances, retirements and credit price | Until 2030 | Quarterly | Twice a year | Since 2022; prediction of tight DEBs and oversupplied non-DEBs markets - verified so far by credit prices |
Key Takeaways While carbon removal technologies are almost certainly going to be needed at scale
CCO-8 Issuances Source: California Air Resources Board (CARB) On the 22nd of August, the California
Key Takeaways Evaluation of joint cap-and-trade market: California and Québec are assessing their cap-and-trade market
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