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Market Coverage - Cap-and-TradeFull Market CoverageInSight Primer CoverageInScope CoverageSign up to our NewsletterWCI CATPrice per Ton$36.57Annual Emissions341 MMTMarket Value$13.9 BillionProgram Start Date2012Legislated Until2030Number of Participants~1000Member StatesCalifornia & QuebecOffsets PermittedYesThe Western Climate Initiative Cap-and-Trade Program
Our first and founding market, referencing our former name as CaliforniaCarbon.info. We’ve been leading analysts in this market since its inception in 2013, the regulators have long been subscribers and regularly quoted our work in board meetings. We’ve maintained consistent market-leading >99% accuracy in emissions forecasting, and have deep-rooted networks with most corners of this market.
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Forecast Target Variable Horizon Resolution Updated Since & Track Record Fundamental demand-supply and pricing model CCA prices, California and Quebec sectoral Emission, CA-QC allowance supply Until 2050 Yearly Semi-Annually 97% Accuarcy, Predicted 2023 price would be $38 in likley scenario - currently at $36 WCI Auction Model WCI Auction Clearing Price Upcoming Auction Quarterly Quarterly Pricing as been relatively accurate - with the execption of a few outliers (Accuracy: 92%) CCAs are a candidate for the most exciting investment opportunity in carbon right now. We are the market's most specialized analysis firm. Put 2 and 2 together..!Washington CaIPrice per Ton$44.50Annual Emissions102 MMTMarket Value$3.6 BillionProgram Start Date2023Legislated Until2045Number of Participants~200Member StatesWashingtonOffsets PermittedYesWashington State's Cap-and-Invest Program
Our coverage started in the regulatory process years before the market opened to much regional fanfare in 2023. Our pre-market opening price forecast range of $46-$50 uncovered the first auction price of $48.50 exactly. The similarities of structure with the WCI makes for an interesting dynamic, as does the potential for linkage post-2027, both these factors playing well within our suite of interlinking models.
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Forecast Target Variable Horizon Resolution Updated Since & Track Record Fundamental demand-supply and pricing model WCA prices, Washington sectoral Emission Until 2050 Yearly Semi-Annually Predicted price at $50, price at $62 - change in APCR methodology a key reason.. 80% Accurate Explore this new and uncertain market with a guide who's seen it all before in detail.RGGI
Price per Ton$19.02Annual Emissions103 MMTMarket Value$1.6 BillionProgram Start Date2009Legislated Until2030Number of Participants~270Member StatesConnecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and VirginiaOffsets PermittedYes (in theory)The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative
RGGI is the oldest carbon emissions market in North America. We’ve reported on it for a decade and have had a full product on it since 2020. Its structuring and Supply-Demand balance have lessened interest in it as an investable asset, nonetheless a clear forward picture of RGGI is important to understand the decision-sets of several major American energy firms.
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Forecast Target Variable Horizon Resolution Updated Since & Track Record Short Term Price Forecast RGGI Price Next 12 months (Jan'23-Dec'23) Monthly After 12 months are over so once in a year Accuracy - not impressable, current trends deviate from fundamentals. RGGI D&S Model and Scenario RGGI Emission forecast Until 2030 Annual Annual Accuracy - not impressable, current treds deviate from fundamentals. Shifting member states and lawsuits necessitate regular reappraisal - we track and model all of these.Alberta TIERPrice per TonC$65 (US$ 49.35)Annual Emissions140 MMTMarket Value$9.1 BillionProgram Start Date2020Legislated Until2030Number of Participants440Member StatesAlbertaAlberta Province's Technology Innovation Emissions Reduction regulation
The TIER market was instituted in response to the Canadian Federal regulation mandating a minimum provincial pricing on carbon. It is a facility-level output based system which includes offsets, recognition for removals, and regulatory fund credits. The province’s major oil and gas sector is the heart of the market, as such potential widespread application of CCUS to these facilities could accelerate global roll-out through learning-by-doing and technological gains.
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Forecast Target Variable Horizon Resolution Updated Since & Track Record Demand & Supply Forecast Credits/Deficits forecast Until 2030 Yearly Annual Not testing history This complex provincial scheme has multiple ways to comply, our coverage is a one-stop-shop though.EU ETSPrice per Ton€ 61.57Annual Emissions1357.7 MMTMarket Value$81.81 BillionProgram Start Date2005Legislated Until2050Number of Participants~10,000Member StatesEU (27) + Liechtenstein, Iceland, & NorwayOffsets PermittedNoThe European Union's Emission Trading System
The EU ETS is the world’s longest-running carbon emissions market, and the largest too (for now). Not in cCarbon’s original American focus, we have since extended our coverage and modeling to include Europe. Its dominant position as the most liquid and highly-traded market, driven by investors who often have exposure to other international carbon markets, means that the EU ETS is a significant driver of global carbon sentiment with strong interactive effects.
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Forecast Target Variable Horizon Resolution Updated Since & Track Record Supply-Demand forecast Supply and Emissions Until 2030 Annually Once a year Since 2022 Short Term Price Forecast EU ETS Price Until next four weeks Weekly Weekly Since December 2022, EUA prices have experienced significant flucatuations since feb'2023 As requested, we're going global in our CaT coverage. Expect the same depth and expertise but on other continents.
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