Our first and founding market, referencing our former name as CaliforniaCarbon.info. We’ve been leading analysts in this market since its inception in 2013, the regulators have long been subscribers and regularly quoted our work in board meetings. We’ve maintained consistent market-leading >99% accuracy in emissions forecasting, and have deep-rooted networks with most corners of this market.
Forecast | Target Variable | Horizon | Resolution | Updated | Since & Track Record |
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Fundamental demand-supply and pricing model | CCA prices, California and Quebec sectoral Emission, CA-QC allowance supply | Until 2050 | Yearly | Semi-Annually | 97% Accuarcy, Predicted 2023 price would be $38 in likley scenario - currently at $36 |
WCI Auction Model | WCI Auction Clearing Price | Upcoming Auction | Quarterly | Quarterly | Pricing as been relatively accurate - with the execption of a few outliers (Accuracy: 92%) |
Our coverage started in the regulatory process years before the market opened to much regional fanfare in 2023. Our pre-market opening price forecast range of $46-$50 uncovered the first auction price of $48.50 exactly. The similarities of structure with the WCI makes for an interesting dynamic, as does the potential for linkage post-2027, both these factors playing well within our suite of interlinking models.
Forecast | Target Variable | Horizon | Resolution | Updated | Since & Track Record |
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Fundamental demand-supply and pricing model | WCA prices, Washington sectoral Emission | Until 2050 | Yearly | Semi-Annually | Predicted price at $50, price at $62 - change in APCR methodology a key reason.. 80% Accurate |
RGGI is the oldest carbon emissions market in North America. We’ve reported on it for a decade and have had a full product on it since 2020. Its structuring and Supply-Demand balance have lessened interest in it as an investable asset, nonetheless a clear forward picture of RGGI is important to understand the decision-sets of several major American energy firms.
Forecast | Target Variable | Horizon | Resolution | Updated | Since & Track Record |
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Short Term Price Forecast | RGGI Price | Next 12 months (Jan'23-Dec'23) | Monthly | After 12 months are over so once in a year | Accuracy - not impressable, current trends deviate from fundamentals. |
RGGI D&S Model and Scenario | RGGI Emission forecast | Until 2030 | Annual | Annual | Accuracy - not impressable, current treds deviate from fundamentals. |
The TIER market was instituted in response to the Canadian Federal regulation mandating a minimum provincial pricing on carbon. It is a facility-level output based system which includes offsets, recognition for removals, and regulatory fund credits. The province’s major oil and gas sector is the heart of the market, as such potential widespread application of CCUS to these facilities could accelerate global roll-out through learning-by-doing and technological gains.
Forecast | Target Variable | Horizon | Resolution | Updated | Since & Track Record |
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Demand & Supply Forecast | Credits/Deficits forecast | Until 2030 | Yearly | Annual | Not testing history |
The EU ETS is the world’s longest-running carbon emissions market, and the largest too (for now). Not in cCarbon’s original American focus, we have since extended our coverage and modeling to include Europe. Its dominant position as the most liquid and highly-traded market, driven by investors who often have exposure to other international carbon markets, means that the EU ETS is a significant driver of global carbon sentiment with strong interactive effects.
Forecast | Target Variable | Horizon | Resolution | Updated | Since & Track Record |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Supply-Demand forecast | Supply and Emissions | Until 2030 | Annually | Once a year | Since 2022 |
Short Term Price Forecast | EU ETS Price | Until next four weeks | Weekly | Weekly | Since December 2022, EUA prices have experienced significant flucatuations since feb'2023 |
Summary CCA front on Friday closed at $33.59 gaining $0.48 over the week. ICE (Intercontinental
Key Takeaways Evaluation of joint cap-and-trade market: California and Québec are assessing their cap-and-trade market
Key takeaways WCA front on Friday closed at $64.05, observing a gain of $1.5 over
Background On the 9th of June, Ecology released its methodology on the supply of APCR
Highlights RGGI weekly average futures settlement price: $14.05 (+2.07% WoW) ICE weekly volume was reported as
The US Carbon markets continue to be highly unpredictable, with the programs under review and
Key Takeaways Seven new CCS projects proposed have the potential to capture 56 million tonnes
Summary Weekly average EUA prices increased in the last week by 3.37% from €84.57 to
Key Takeaways Steady decline in fund size for KRBN, with $436 mn outflow in the
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