In this Analyst Note, cCarbon provides our outlook on the Washington Cap and Invest program's emissions, demand-supply factors, and price trajectory in the aftermath of the failure of Ballot Initiative 2117. Our outlook extends to 2045 and considers both a linked WA-QC-CA market, and a standalone Washington program. We examine the underlying factors influencing emissions across sectors and how they align with state reduction targets. Key insights are drawn from the surprising dynamics observed in Auction 8, where pricing and participant behavior diverged from historical trends, signaling potential shifts in market sentiment. Overall, we construct a comprehensive demand-supply outlook for Washington’s cap-and-invest program, factoring in possible adjustments due to linkage, economic variables, and regulatory influences.

This analyst note discusses cCarbon’s updated CarbonOutlook Model that examines the medium- and long-term implications of the updated regulation. The note makes forecasts on leading credit and deficit generators in the coming months and years along with a robust price outlook. Key changes include limiting biodiesel from certain oils, stricter hydrogen production requirements, and phasing out methane capture credits. The amendments also incentivize zero-emission vehicle infrastructure and introduce an automatic adjustment mechanism for carbon intensity benchmarks. Additionally, new rules will track feedstocks to prevent negative environmental impacts, ensuring a more sustainable fuel landscape in California.

This Analyst Note presents a structured approach to analyzing carbon market price movements within the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), focusing on price dynamics and utilizing statistical tools to monitor short-term fluctuations. As the largest carbon market in the world, with a value surpassing that of all other cap-and-trade systems combined, the EU ETS is a critical area of analysis for stakeholders involved in carbon trading. Understanding the factors driving the dynamics of the EU ETS is essential for navigating the evolving carbon market landscape. This report adopts a multi-faceted approach, divided into three main sections: fundamental analysis, event-driven analysis, and technical analysis.

This analyst note examines the diverse compliance and voluntary carbon offset markets in Canada, focusing on key policy developments, market trends, protocols, and investment opportunities. It covers the Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM) as well as compliance offset schemes under the Federal system, Quebec, British Columbia, and Alberta’s TIER program. The note provides a strategic overview of protocols approved in these regions, such as IFM, landfill methane, and other technology-based solutions, while offering a forecast for Alberta’s TIER offsets and insights into the opportunities and challenges across these markets.

In this insight report, we explore the critical role of Canada's Clean Fuel Regulation (CFR) in shaping the country's path towards transportation decarbonization.

This comprehensive analyst note builds upon our previous iterations in exploring the evolving dynamics of the California Carbon Offset (CCO) market, as well as projections on where the market can head. This latest update includes an extended forecast reaching to 2040, in order to provide a long-term perspective on the market, as well as incorporates various new scenarios based on potential policy and regulatory changes. The note aims to serves as an essential resource for stakeholders navigating the complexities, as well as evaluating future opportunities within the WCI CCO market.

This Analyst Note examines the rising prominence of low-cost nature-based carbon removal solutions, detailing key protocols, current market dynamics, and future expectations.

This analyst note provides a comprehensive overview of the Canadian Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR) and their implications for the compliance credit market. With Canada’s ambitious goal to reduce the carbon intensity of liquid fossil fuels by 15% by 2030 and achieve net-zero emissions in the transportation sector by 2050, this report delves into the critical drivers of market change. Key insights include the rapid growth of the biofuel industry, the expanding role of electric vehicles, and the evolving credit landscape. Leveraging the latest data from the first Annual CFR Credit Market Data Report, our analysts have developed detailed projections for credit generation, deficits, and banking scenarios through 2035. This note serves as an essential resource for stakeholders navigating the complexities of Canada’s clean fuel market and evaluating future opportunities and risks within the regulatory framework.