InSights

Revised blending assumptions for renewable diesel and biodiesel point to slower credit generation. Newly introduced ZEV adoption scenarios reflect varying EV uptake and charging utilization, influencing future EV credit supply.

This forecast update highlights cCarbon’s Outlook Model for the BC LCFS market, provides an overview of the program, examines biofuel and EV trends, and presents a demand-supply outlook through 2030.

The updated outlook for the Oregon Clean Fuels Program indicates a structurally tighter market through 2030. Slower electric vehicle adoption, moderated renewable diesel growth, and revised electricity credit assumptions have weakened the credit bank outlook across scenarios.

Prices are projected to rise faster in 2026, driven by HB 1409–led CI tightening, limited ZEV incentives, and a contraction in biofuel supply evidenced by a 35.13% YoY decline in Q3 2025 and a drop in renewable diesel blending from 20.53% to 7.49%. On the biofuel side, these trends point to a supply slowdown amid relatively weaker incentives compared to competing CFS markets

The California LCFS market is moving toward a structurally tighter supply–demand balance, with credit prices projected to rise further under the fundamental model. The tightening dynamic is primarily driven by a contraction in Renewable Diesel (RD) volumes to 538 million gallons in Q3 2025 (a 58% pool share), and a downward revision in electricity credit generation amid slower EV adoption and the phaseout of federal tax incentives.

Canada’s offset market combines exceptional supply potential with a persistent demand shortfall. Provincial systems are moving in restrictive directions with Alberta’s TIER faces a growing surplus and secondary prices below CAD 20, Quebec is phasing out offsets by 2030, and British Columbia is tightening OBPS offset use, while the federal OBPS generates less than three million tons of annual demand across smaller provinces. Policy uncertainty, greenwashing reforms, and delayed net zero standards further dampen procurement. Without stronger compliance driven demand or broader voluntary participation, large scale commercialization will remain constrained. This report assesses the fragmented architecture across voluntary and compliance regimes and concludes that Canada’s carbon market is considerably less than the possible sum of its parts, constrained primarily by structural demand limitations.

North American offset markets now benefit from clearer long-term regulatory direction, with California trending toward structural oversupply while Washington appears set for sustained structural tightness under its proposed reforms. These divergent trajectories create fundamentally different pricing and risk dynamics across states. This CCO Forecast Update explores long-term supply–demand balances through 2045, identifying when and how market imbalances may emerge and outlining the strategic implications for developers and investors.

This insight report forecasts emission trends in California and Quebec, targeting a 3% annual reduction through 2026. Future reductions hinge on growth in EVs, renewable diesel, and clean energy infrastructure. Projections show steady annual declines, with challenges in sustaining regulatory momentum. The report dives deep into the drivers influencing the performance and decarbonization potential of each sector.

In this insight report, we explore the critical role of Canada's Clean Fuel Regulation (CFR) in shaping the country's path towards transportation decarbonization.

As New Mexico gears up for the 2026 launch of its Clean Transportation Fuel Program (CTFP), cCarbon’s latest Analyst Note forecasts key market dynamics. The CTFP aims to reduce carbon intensity in transportation by 20% by 2030 and 30% by 2040. Our analysis covers three decarbonization scenarios, highlighting their impact on credit generation, deficits, and the credit bank.

The Washington Department of Ecology’s HB1975 rulemaking introduces significant amendments to the state’s Cap-and-Invest Program, focused on expanding allowance supply and easing near-term price pressures. Key revisions extend the cap trajectory by one year, add retroactive vintages 2023–2025, and propose a major Allowance Price Containment Reserve (APCR) infusion in 2027, equivalent to 2–5% of the 2027–2040 budgets. These measures collectively moderate program stringency and create a smoother emissions reduction pathway.

This analyst note highlights cCarbon’s CarbonOutlook Model for the BC LCFS market, provides an overview of the program, examines biofuel and EV trends, and presents a demand-supply outlook through 2030.