The California LCFS was cCarbon’s first foray into Clean Fuel credit markets. CA LCFS forms the second part of ARB’s (the State’s regulator) “belt ‘n’ braces” approach to emission reductions. With transportation emissions at around half of covered emissions of the state cap-and-trade market, when the LCFS market is tight and prices high, there is comparatively less pressure on the CaT market, and vice versa. Neither market can be effectively understood or modeled without fully comprehending the other – our speciality.
Forecast | Target Variable | Horizon | Resolution | Updated | Since & Track Record |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Short Term Price Forecast | CA LCFS Type 1 Price | Until next four weeks | Weekly | Weekly | Since January 2023, Direction of forecast has been right but at times it missed when high trade volume occured corresponding to a particular price. It has also been impacted by CFTC positions which was not being considered until now. |
Long Term Demand and Supply Forecast | CA LCFS Credits and Deficits | Untill 2030 | Annually | Bi Annual | Since Jan 2021. The model fairely captures the supply and demand of the credits in the market. The model has been updated with significant market variables. Recently, the model was made more specific with the different classes of heavy duty vehicles added into the total heavy vehicle stock. The model captures the uptake of generation from renewable diesel, electricity, ethanol and Bio-CNG pathways with a reasonable accuracy. |
Long Term Price Forecast | CA LCFS Credit Price | 2030 | Annual | Bi Annunal | The price forecast has been in track from Jan 2021. It has fairly predicted the changes in credit price due to market events in the recent past. |
The BC LCFS fuel emissions intensity market is driven by a handful of regulated parties who form the entire demand-side. As such, prices are illiquid and with inconsistent discovery. Even though the absolute volumes are small, the region-leading high prices have formed a powerful incentive for the import and use of cleaner fuels within the province. As credit and value creation is as mobile as the fuel it is based on, CFS markets in effect ‘compete’ for feed stocks and clean fuel volumes.
OR CFP is an oligopoly with importers of gasoline, diesel, ethanol, biodiesel, and renewable diesel forming the demand side. The program has also voluntary participants such as providers of natural gas, propane, electricity, and hydrogen. Higher credit prices in Oregon CFP is an attractive tool for fuel importers who are looking to set up import infrastructure for the North American clean fuel market. Liquid biofuels such as biodiesel, renewable diesel and ethanol are the major credit generators in this market.
Forecast | Target Variable | Horizon | Resolution | Updated | Since & Track Record |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Long Term Supply-Demand Forecast | Credit & Deficit balance | Untill 2030 | Quarterly | Bi Annually | Since June 2022. The credit bank forecast has been in the right direction. The number of variables which describe the market has increased in the each of the model update. Currently, OR CFP has ZEV stock, ethanol blend, BD blend, RD blend, and Vehicle stock growth as major variables. Untill now the model is able to mimic major market phenomena through different model scenarios. |
The US Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) was implemented as a part of Energy Policy Act of 2005. It is one of the earliest programs in US which ramped up ethanol production. The RFS sets the volumetric mandates known as Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) for fuels blended into US surface transport vehicles. EPA publishes the percentage standards for the mandate volumes. The annual volume mandates are established in four categories of biofuels: cellulosic, biomass-based diesel, total advanced and renewable. The criteria to establish these categories are in the terms of reduction in life cycle emission, feedstock and feedstock characteristics.
Key takeaways The average LCFS spot credit prices fall by 2.28% week-over-week to reach $72.59/MT
Key takeaways The BBD mandate for 2025 is set at 3.35 billion gallons, but the
Key takeaways The average LCFS spot credit prices fall by 2.28% week-over-week to reach $72.59/MT
Key Highlights – The Canadian oil and gas sector accounts for 26% of total emissions,
Key takeaways The average LCFS spot credit prices fall by 2.28% week-over-week to reach $72.59/MT
Key Takeaways 111 DGE of biogas potential remains unused. 67 more biogas plants are coming
Key takeaways The average LCFS spot credit prices fall by 2.28% week-over-week to reach $72.59/MT
Key takeaways The BBD mandate for 2025 is set at 3.35 billion gallons, but the
Our market portals and InSights are only for logged-in users with the relevant access. This can be you too…
This content is outside of your current package. If you need this too, let’s talk…
Send this problem to our Clients team, and we will get back to you shortly with a plan of attack.
Speak and exchange notes with our specific-market expert, use your complimentary hours.
Arrange with Client TeamTell us who you are, and what you're after. We'll find you the right person with the answer - before you wake up twice.
Tell us who you are, and what you're after. We'll find you the right person with the answer - before you wake up twice.
Your name and email in exchange for staying up to date across the world's environmental markets... what a deal?!
This content is outside of your current package.
If you need this too, let's talk…
Phasellus tempor tincidunt sem, sed dictum ipsum mollis vitae. Maecenas eu diam convallis, pellentesque lacus et, mollis enim.
ID # | Custom Name | Created On | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Phasellus tempor tincidunt sem, sed dictum ipsum mollis vitae. Maecenas eu diam convallis, pellentesque lacus et, mollis enim.
# ID | Custom Name | Created On | ||
---|---|---|---|---|