Clean Fuel Standards | Market Types

Market Coverage - Clean Fuel Standards

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CA LCFS

$78.25

Annual Emissions

20.5 MMT (Annual Deficits)

Market Value

$1.53 Billion

BC LCFS

$347

Annual Emissions

2.48 MMT (Annual Deficits)

Market Value

$860.56 Million

OR CFP

$40.00

Annual Emissions

0.55 MMT (Annual Deficits)

Market Value

$44.82 Million

RFS

$2.70/RIN

Annual Emissions

20.94 Billion RINs (2023)

Market Value

$33.30 Billion

Legislative Landscape

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CA LCFS

Price per Ton

$78.25

Annual Emissions

20.5 MMT (Annual Deficits)

Market Value

$1.53 Billion

Program Start Date

2011

Legislated Until

2030

Number of Participants

571

Member States

California

California State's Low Carbon Fuel Standard

The California LCFS was cCarbon’s first foray into Clean Fuel credit markets. CA LCFS forms the second part of ARB’s (the State’s regulator) “belt ‘n’ braces” approach to emission reductions. With transportation emissions at around half of covered emissions of the state cap-and-trade market, when the LCFS market is tight and prices high, there is comparatively less pressure on the CaT market, and vice versa. Neither market can be effectively understood or modeled without fully comprehending the other – our speciality.

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Forecast	Target Variable	Horizon	Resolution	Updated	Since & Track Record
Short Term Price Forecast	CA LCFS Type 1 Price	Until next four weeks	Weekly	Weekly	Since January 2023, Direction of forecast has been right but at times it missed when high trade volume occured corresponding to a particular price. It has also been impacted by CFTC positions which was not being considered until now.
Long Term Demand and Supply Forecast	CA LCFS Credits and Deficits	Untill 2030	Annually	Bi Annual	Since Jan 2021. The model fairely captures the supply and demand of the credits in the market. The model has been updated with significant market variables. Recently, the model was made more specific with the different classes of heavy duty vehicles added into the total heavy vehicle stock. The model captures the uptake of generation from renewable diesel, electricity, ethanol and Bio-CNG pathways with a reasonable accuracy.
Long Term Price Forecast	CA LCFS Credit Price	2030	Annual	Bi Annunal	The price forecast has been in track from Jan 2021. It has fairly predicted the changes in credit price due to market events in the recent past.

Our starting block in Clean Fuels, and we've gone further than anyone else, building unrivalled datasets detailing fuel volumes through to pathway specific credit creation.

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BC LCFS

Price per Ton

CA$ 347

Annual Emissions

2.48 MMT (Annual Deficits)

Market Value

$860.56 Million

Program Start Date

2010

Legislated Until

2030

Number of Participants

Member States

British Columbia

British Columbia's Low Carbon Fuel Standard

The BC LCFS fuel emissions intensity market is driven by a handful of regulated parties who form the entire demand-side. As such, prices are illiquid and with inconsistent discovery. Even though the absolute volumes are small, the region-leading high prices have formed a powerful incentive for the import and use of cleaner fuels within the province. As credit and value creation is as mobile as the fuel it is based on, CFS markets in effect ‘compete’ for feed stocks and clean fuel volumes.

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Illiquid but attractive high pricing means that this is niche market to exploit - you'll need our help.

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OR CFP

Price per Ton

$40.00

Annual Emissions

0.55 MMT (Annual Deficits)

Market Value

$44.82 Million

Program Start Date

2016

Legislated Until

2030

Number of Participants

160

Member States

Oregon

Oregon's Clean Fuels Program

OR CFP is an oligopoly with importers of gasoline, diesel, ethanol, biodiesel, and renewable diesel forming the demand side. The program has also voluntary participants such as providers of natural gas, propane, electricity, and hydrogen. Higher credit prices in Oregon CFP is an attractive tool for fuel importers who are looking to set up import infrastructure for the North American clean fuel market. Liquid biofuels such as biodiesel, renewable diesel and ethanol are the major credit generators in this market.

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Forecast	Target Variable	Horizon	Resolution	Updated	Since & Track Record
Long Term Supply-Demand Forecast	Credit & Deficit balance	Untill 2030	Quarterly	Bi Annually	Since June 2022. The credit bank forecast has been in the right direction. The number of variables which describe the market has increased in the each of the model update. Currently, OR CFP has ZEV stock, ethanol blend, BD blend, RD blend, and Vehicle stock growth as major variables. Untill now the model is able to mimic major market phenomena through different model scenarios.

High prices means premiums for CFS credits, a key market to understand as part of the North American Clean Fuels Landscape.

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RFS

Price per Ton

$2.70/RIN

Annual Emissions

23.82 Billion RINs (2023)

Market Value

$26.20 Billion

Program Start Date

2006

Legislated Until

N/A

Number of Participants

1284

Member States

United States of America

United States Federal Renewable Fuels Standard

The US Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) was implemented as a part of Energy Policy Act of 2005. It is one of the earliest programs in US which ramped up ethanol production. The RFS sets the volumetric mandates known as Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) for fuels blended into US surface transport vehicles. EPA publishes the percentage standards for the mandate volumes. The annual volume mandates are established in four categories of biofuels: cellulosic, biomass-based diesel, total advanced and renewable. The criteria to establish these categories are in the terms of reduction in life cycle emission, feedstock and feedstock characteristics.