• Price Commentary
  • Weekly Carbon Outlook – Nov 28, 2016
Weekly Carbon Outlook – Nov 28, 2016
WCI CaT
Monday, 28th November 2016
Ronjoy Bezbarua

[Download link at the bottom of this post]

Trading Report

  • Volume low at 3,709,000 despite record volume cleared at auction
  • Price reacts $0.07 down to results
  • Open interest down by net 60,000 contracts

Price Expectations

  • Price now begins protracted climb to next year’s floor
  • Single year funding rates rise to 2.81% after Fed hints
  • Expected V16 ranges: $12.81 – $12.86 (Front); $12.81 – $12.86 (Benchmark)

CCO Tracker

  • 618k ARBOCs issued in November’s last issuance.
  • The Passamaquoddy Tribe IFM project generates 550k
  • 292k CCO8s have invalidated period shortened to 3 years
  • 500k new credits added to the registries
  • 186k ROCs issued to forestry conservation projects
  • 23 million offsets remain eligible for future compliance assuming 7.9% usage for 2015.

Policy Tracker

  • SB 32, AB 197, SB 1386, AB 33 signed by Governor, legislature resumes in 2017

Key Dates

  • Dec 1 – ARB announces 2017 reserve price

Download this Report (pdf)

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