InSights

Market Type:
Washington Cap & Invest | Deep Dive on 2023 Emissions | Analyst Note | April 2025
Washington Cap & Invest | Deep Dive on 2023 Emissions | Analyst Note | April 2025
Washington CaI
Cap-and-Trade
3 April 2025

This analyst note explores Washington's Covered Emissions for the first year of the program, analyzing different sectoral trends to understand the decarbonization rate. The note evaluates key drivers of decarbonization, including the Clean Energy Transformation Act (CETA), and the role of renewable diesel and EV uptake under the WA Clean Fuel Standard (CFS).

Oregon Climate Protection Program | A Revamped Program | Analyst Note | March 2025
Oregon Climate Protection Program | A Revamped Program | Analyst Note | March 2025
Oregon CPP, RGGI, Washington CaI, WCI CaT, Alberta TIER
Cap-and-Trade
24 March 2025

This analyst note explores Oregon’s updated Climate Protection Program (CPP), analyzing the regulatory design, compliance timelines. The note examines expected sectoral impacts, particularly on fuel suppliers and gas utilities, and assesses early abatement signals and long-term obligations through 2035.

Oregon Clean Fuels Program 2035 Outlook | Analyst Note | March 2025
Oregon Clean Fuels Program 2035 Outlook | Analyst Note | March 2025
ZEV, RD, OR CFP
Clean Fuel Standards
21 March 2025

This Analyst Note dives deep into cCarbon’s 2035 forecasts for the Oregon CFP market under 3 alternative scenarios. The Note also provides a 2030 price forecast for the market.

Compliance Offsets in California and Washington - A Forecast Update | Analyst Note | February 2025
Compliance Offsets in California and Washington - A Forecast Update | Analyst Note | February 2025
WCI CCOs & WCOs
Carbon Offsets
24 February 2025

This updated California Carbon Offset (CCO) forecast provides a long-term outlook extending to 2045, incorporating key policy developments and market linkages that could reshape offset supply and demand. With greater clarity on Washington’s expected linkage and Quebec’s definitive phaseout of offsets by 2030, we have refined our scenarios to reflect potential outcomes for California’s offset market.

Washington C&I: Outlook Post Referendum for Continuation of Program | Analyst Note | December 2024
Washington C&I: Outlook Post Referendum for Continuation of Program | Analyst Note | December 2024
Washington CaI
Cap-and-Trade
20 December 2024

In this Analyst Note, cCarbon provides our outlook on the Washington Cap and Invest program's emissions, demand-supply factors, and price trajectory in the aftermath of the failure of Ballot Initiative 2117. Our outlook extends to 2045 and considers both a linked WA-QC-CA market, and a standalone Washington program. We examine the underlying factors influencing emissions across sectors and how they align with state reduction targets. Key insights are drawn from the surprising dynamics observed in Auction 8, where pricing and participant behavior diverged from historical trends, signaling potential shifts in market sentiment. Overall, we construct a comprehensive demand-supply outlook for Washington’s cap-and-invest program, factoring in possible adjustments due to linkage, economic variables, and regulatory influences. This Analyst Note was updated with a new modelling run in late January 2025.

Unlocking California’s Clean Fuel Future: Updated LCFS Program & Its Medium to Long Term Implications | Analyst Note | December 2024
Unlocking California’s Clean Fuel Future: Updated LCFS Program & Its Medium to Long Term Implications | Analyst Note | December 2024
WA CFS, ZEV, RNG, RD, SAF, OR CFP, CA LCFS
Clean Fuel Standards
18 December 2024

This analyst note discusses cCarbon’s updated CarbonOutlook Model that examines the medium- and long-term implications of the updated regulation. The note makes forecasts on leading credit and deficit generators in the coming months and years along with a robust price outlook. Key changes include limiting biodiesel from certain oils, stricter hydrogen production requirements, and phasing out methane capture credits. The amendments also incentivize zero-emission vehicle infrastructure and introduce an automatic adjustment mechanism for carbon intensity benchmarks. Additionally, new rules will track feedstocks to prevent negative environmental impacts, ensuring a more sustainable fuel landscape in California.

Exploring Carbon Markets Through an Investor Lens: Using Advanced Analytics | Analyst Note | November 2024
Exploring Carbon Markets Through an Investor Lens: Using Advanced Analytics | Analyst Note | November 2024
UK ETS, EU ETS​, RGGI, Washington CaI, WCI CaT, Other CaT News, Alberta TIER
Cap-and-Trade
29 November 2024

This Analyst Note presents a structured approach to analyzing carbon market price movements within the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), focusing on price dynamics and utilizing statistical tools to monitor short-term fluctuations. As the largest carbon market in the world, with a value surpassing that of all other cap-and-trade systems combined, the EU ETS is a critical area of analysis for stakeholders involved in carbon trading. Understanding the factors driving the dynamics of the EU ETS is essential for navigating the evolving carbon market landscape. This report adopts a multi-faceted approach, divided into three main sections: fundamental analysis, event-driven analysis, and technical analysis.

Comparing Canada Offset Opportunities: Federal, Alberta, Quebec, British Columbia and Voluntary | Analyst Note | October 2024
Comparing Canada Offset Opportunities: Federal, Alberta, Quebec, British Columbia and Voluntary | Analyst Note | October 2024
VCM, WCI CCOs & WCOs, Alberta TIER
Cap-and-Trade
17 October 2024

This analyst note examines the diverse compliance and voluntary carbon offset markets in Canada, focusing on key policy developments, market trends, protocols, and investment opportunities. It covers the Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM) as well as compliance offset schemes under the Federal system, Quebec, British Columbia, and Alberta’s TIER program. The note provides a strategic overview of protocols approved in these regions, such as IFM, landfill methane, and other technology-based solutions, while offering a forecast for Alberta’s TIER offsets and insights into the opportunities and challenges across these markets.

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