This comprehensive analyst note builds upon our previous iterations in exploring the evolving dynamics of the California Carbon Offset (CCO) market, as well as projections on where the market can head. This latest update includes an extended forecast reaching to 2040, in order to provide a long-term perspective on the market, as well as incorporates various new scenarios based on potential policy and regulatory changes. The note aims to serves as an essential resource for stakeholders navigating the complexities, as well as evaluating future opportunities within the WCI CCO market.

This Analyst Note examines the rising prominence of low-cost nature-based carbon removal solutions, detailing key protocols, current market dynamics, and future expectations.

This analyst note provides a comprehensive overview of the Canadian Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR) and their implications for the compliance credit market. With Canada’s ambitious goal to reduce the carbon intensity of liquid fossil fuels by 15% by 2030 and achieve net-zero emissions in the transportation sector by 2050, this report delves into the critical drivers of market change. Key insights include the rapid growth of the biofuel industry, the expanding role of electric vehicles, and the evolving credit landscape. Leveraging the latest data from the first Annual CFR Credit Market Data Report, our analysts have developed detailed projections for credit generation, deficits, and banking scenarios through 2035. This note serves as an essential resource for stakeholders navigating the complexities of Canada’s clean fuel market and evaluating future opportunities and risks within the regulatory framework.

The latest proposed changes consider many of the stakeholder comments received from the workshops. Central to these changes is a 9% reduction in Carbon Intensity (CI) beginning in Q1 2025, which will start drawing down the existing credit surplus and target a 30% CI reduction by 2030. CARB is also emphasizing electrification as the cornerstone of its strategy for the transportation sector. However, a 20% cap on virgin bio-feedstock, particularly soy and canola, raises questions about the future scale-up of Renewable Diesel. In aviation, while Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) will continue to generate credits, intrastate air travel is exempt from deficit generation, easing compliance slightly. As bio-based feedstocks come from across borders (inter-state and international), CARB seems to be building harmonization across markets. In the proposed rules, it is aligning its land-use change and deforestation requirements with certification schemes. Our analysts have reviewed these and other changes in this most recent text released by CARB.

This analyst note offers a comprehensive analysis of the Renewable Thermal Credit (RTC) market. The market is currently estimated at approximately USD 220 million and is poised for substantial growth in the coming years. RNG Thermal Demand: Total annual RNG thermal demand is pegged at approximately 11 million MMBtu in 2023.

This analyst note examines the expanding North American forestry carbon offset market, detailing trends in both compliance and voluntary sectors. It offers insights into future market dynamics, including supply-demand balances and price projections for various credit types, with a forward-looking analysis extending to 2035.

This analyst note delves into the specifics of the inclusion of the EU maritime sector in the European Emission Trading System (ETS). Key aspects include the regulatory landscape, abatement options and an outlook for EUA prices. We assess various abatement options available to the sector, evaluating their feasibility, cost-effectiveness, and potential impact on reducing emissions and accordingly, the cost of European Union Allowances in the long run based on cCarbon’s EU ETS forecast model.

This analyst note draws parallels from trends in the WCI cap-and-trade market to inform supply, demand, and price projections in the Washington offsets market through 2030. This approach considers offset availability, regulatory changes, and evolving political dynamics, making it more of a forward-looking calculation based on assumptions rather than a comprehensive forecast.