InSights

The Washington Department of Ecology’s HB1975 rulemaking introduces significant amendments to the state’s Cap-and-Invest Program, focused on expanding allowance supply and easing near-term price pressures. Key revisions extend the cap trajectory by one year, add retroactive vintages 2023–2025, and propose a major Allowance Price Containment Reserve (APCR) infusion in 2027, equivalent to 2–5% of the 2027–2040 budgets. These measures collectively moderate program stringency and create a smoother emissions reduction pathway.

This analyst note highlights cCarbon’s CarbonOutlook Model for the BC LCFS market, provides an overview of the program, examines biofuel and EV trends, and presents a demand-supply outlook through 2030.

California’s offset market is evolving under new legislation and shifting fundamentals. This CCO Forecast Update explores the impact of AB1207 and SB840, covering program extensions, offset rules, and the upcoming 2026 review, while noting that near-term pricing effects remain limited. The bigger story lies in updated MMC protocol and Non-DEBs forecasts, which bring a major shift to long-term supply dynamics. With post-2030 oversupply risks still in focus, this edition highlights why emerging non-compliance demand could be critical to maintaining market balance in the years ahead.

CORSIA has entered its first mandatory phase (2024–2026), and for the first time, airlines face real offsetting obligations for international emissions. Our latest analyst note unpacks the demand outlook—driven heavily by a handful of major markets—as well as the emerging supply crunch, regulatory uncertainty, and the limited near-term role of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF). Based on our in-house modelling, we explore how policy choices, market readiness, and Article 6 dynamics will shape compliance risk and carbon credit demand.

The analyst note examines WA LCFS market dynamics following amended regulations. Using the CFS.CarbonOutlook model, the analysis presents credit, deficit, bank, and credit price forecasts, three market scenarios, and supply-demand equilibrium projections through 2035 

The analyst note examines California LCFS market dynamics following CARB's amended regulation approval on June 27, effective July 2025. The delayed implementation created significant market volatility in H1 2025. Using the CFS.CarbonOutlook model, the analysis presents 2035 forecasts for credit bank dynamics, building from December 2024's 37 million metric ton baseline, and evaluates supply-demand equilibrium projections through 2035.

The third program review of the RGGI program was released in July 2025 and brings in many changes including a tighter emissions cap starting 2027, removes ECR, and adds additional Cost Containment. These changes come in the backdrop of significant challenges to decarbonisation as federal actions disrupt renewable energy, causing numerous wind projects to stall and constrain decarbonization efforts.

California's carbon offset market stands at a critical juncture, with post-2030 policy decisions emerging as the single most decisive factor shaping long-term market dynamics. California’s likely delay of program extension and ARB’s updated regulation into 2026 means that this forecast edition is based on ‘what might be’, more than on solid expectations of ‘what should come to pass’. This updated California Carbon Offset (CCO) forecast provides a long-term outlook extending to 2045, incorporating key policy developments and market linkages that could reshape offset supply and demand.

This analyst note highlights cCarbon’s CarbonOutlook Model for the BC LCFS market, provides an overview of the program, examines biofuel and EV trends, and presents a demand-supply outlook through 2030.

The analyst note examines the North American clean fuel and cap-and-trade markets, focusing on California's LCFS, RFS, cap-and-trade, and RGGI, amidst macroeconomic uncertainties and the April 8 Presidential Executive Order causing significant headline risk. It presents cCarbon's risk assessment framework, assessing 22 key drivers to guide stakeholders in navigating regulatory and market challenges.

This analyst note explores Washington's Covered Emissions for the first year of the program, analyzing different sectoral trends to understand the decarbonization rate. The note evaluates key drivers of decarbonization, including the Clean Energy Transformation Act (CETA), and the role of renewable diesel and EV uptake under the WA Clean Fuel Standard (CFS).

This analyst note explores Oregon’s updated Climate Protection Program (CPP), analyzing the regulatory design, compliance timelines. The note examines expected sectoral impacts, particularly on fuel suppliers and gas utilities, and assesses early abatement signals and long-term obligations through 2035.