InSights

This forecast update highlights cCarbon’s Outlook Model for the BC LCFS market, provides an overview of the program, examines biofuel and EV trends, and presents a demand-supply outlook through 2030.

Canada’s offset market combines exceptional supply potential with a persistent demand shortfall. Provincial systems are moving in restrictive directions with Alberta’s TIER faces a growing surplus and secondary prices below CAD 20, Quebec is phasing out offsets by 2030, and British Columbia is tightening OBPS offset use, while the federal OBPS generates less than three million tons of annual demand across smaller provinces. Policy uncertainty, greenwashing reforms, and delayed net zero standards further dampen procurement. Without stronger compliance driven demand or broader voluntary participation, large scale commercialization will remain constrained. This report assesses the fragmented architecture across voluntary and compliance regimes and concludes that Canada’s carbon market is considerably less than the possible sum of its parts, constrained primarily by structural demand limitations.

North American offset markets now benefit from clearer long-term regulatory direction, with California trending toward structural oversupply while Washington appears set for sustained structural tightness under its proposed reforms. These divergent trajectories create fundamentally different pricing and risk dynamics across states. This CCO Forecast Update explores long-term supply–demand balances through 2045, identifying when and how market imbalances may emerge and outlining the strategic implications for developers and investors.

As New Mexico gears up for the 2026 launch of its Clean Transportation Fuel Program (CTFP), cCarbon’s latest Analyst Note forecasts key market dynamics. The CTFP aims to reduce carbon intensity in transportation by 20% by 2030 and 30% by 2040. Our analysis covers three decarbonization scenarios, highlighting their impact on credit generation, deficits, and the credit bank.

The Washington Department of Ecology’s HB1975 rulemaking introduces significant amendments to the state’s Cap-and-Invest Program, focused on expanding allowance supply and easing near-term price pressures. Key revisions extend the cap trajectory by one year, add retroactive vintages 2023–2025, and propose a major Allowance Price Containment Reserve (APCR) infusion in 2027, equivalent to 2–5% of the 2027–2040 budgets. These measures collectively moderate program stringency and create a smoother emissions reduction pathway.

This analyst note highlights cCarbon’s CarbonOutlook Model for the BC LCFS market, provides an overview of the program, examines biofuel and EV trends, and presents a demand-supply outlook through 2030.

California’s offset market is evolving under new legislation and shifting fundamentals. This CCO Forecast Update explores the impact of AB1207 and SB840, covering program extensions, offset rules, and the upcoming 2026 review, while noting that near-term pricing effects remain limited. The bigger story lies in updated MMC protocol and Non-DEBs forecasts, which bring a major shift to long-term supply dynamics. With post-2030 oversupply risks still in focus, this edition highlights why emerging non-compliance demand could be critical to maintaining market balance in the years ahead.

CORSIA has entered its first mandatory phase (2024–2026), and for the first time, airlines face real offsetting obligations for international emissions. Our latest analyst note unpacks the demand outlook—driven heavily by a handful of major markets—as well as the emerging supply crunch, regulatory uncertainty, and the limited near-term role of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF). Based on our in-house modelling, we explore how policy choices, market readiness, and Article 6 dynamics will shape compliance risk and carbon credit demand.

The analyst note examines WA LCFS market dynamics following amended regulations. Using the CFS.CarbonOutlook model, the analysis presents credit, deficit, bank, and credit price forecasts, three market scenarios, and supply-demand equilibrium projections through 2035 

The analyst note examines California LCFS market dynamics following CARB's amended regulation approval on June 27, effective July 2025. The delayed implementation created significant market volatility in H1 2025. Using the CFS.CarbonOutlook model, the analysis presents 2035 forecasts for credit bank dynamics, building from December 2024's 37 million metric ton baseline, and evaluates supply-demand equilibrium projections through 2035.

The third program review of the RGGI program was released in July 2025 and brings in many changes including a tighter emissions cap starting 2027, removes ECR, and adds additional Cost Containment. These changes come in the backdrop of significant challenges to decarbonisation as federal actions disrupt renewable energy, causing numerous wind projects to stall and constrain decarbonization efforts.

California's carbon offset market stands at a critical juncture, with post-2030 policy decisions emerging as the single most decisive factor shaping long-term market dynamics. California’s likely delay of program extension and ARB’s updated regulation into 2026 means that this forecast edition is based on ‘what might be’, more than on solid expectations of ‘what should come to pass’. This updated California Carbon Offset (CCO) forecast provides a long-term outlook extending to 2045, incorporating key policy developments and market linkages that could reshape offset supply and demand.