InSights

This analyst note explores Washington's Covered Emissions for the first year of the program, analyzing different sectoral trends to understand the decarbonization rate. The note evaluates key drivers of decarbonization, including the Clean Energy Transformation Act (CETA), and the role of renewable diesel and EV uptake under the WA Clean Fuel Standard (CFS).

This analyst note explores Oregon’s updated Climate Protection Program (CPP), analyzing the regulatory design, compliance timelines. The note examines expected sectoral impacts, particularly on fuel suppliers and gas utilities, and assesses early abatement signals and long-term obligations through 2035.

This Analyst Note dives deep into cCarbon’s 2035 forecasts for the Oregon CFP market under 3 alternative scenarios. The Note also provides a 2030 price forecast for the market.

This updated California Carbon Offset (CCO) forecast provides a long-term outlook extending to 2045, incorporating key policy developments and market linkages that could reshape offset supply and demand. With greater clarity on Washington’s expected linkage and Quebec’s definitive phaseout of offsets by 2030, we have refined our scenarios to reflect potential outcomes for California’s offset market.

In this Analyst Note, cCarbon provides our outlook on the Washington Cap and Invest program's emissions, demand-supply factors, and price trajectory in the aftermath of the failure of Ballot Initiative 2117. Our outlook extends to 2045 and considers both a linked WA-QC-CA market, and a standalone Washington program. We examine the underlying factors influencing emissions across sectors and how they align with state reduction targets. Key insights are drawn from the surprising dynamics observed in Auction 8, where pricing and participant behavior diverged from historical trends, signaling potential shifts in market sentiment. Overall, we construct a comprehensive demand-supply outlook for Washington’s cap-and-invest program, factoring in possible adjustments due to linkage, economic variables, and regulatory influences. This Analyst Note was updated with a new modelling run in late January 2025.

This analyst note discusses cCarbon’s updated CarbonOutlook Model that examines the medium- and long-term implications of the updated regulation. The note makes forecasts on leading credit and deficit generators in the coming months and years along with a robust price outlook. Key changes include limiting biodiesel from certain oils, stricter hydrogen production requirements, and phasing out methane capture credits. The amendments also incentivize zero-emission vehicle infrastructure and introduce an automatic adjustment mechanism for carbon intensity benchmarks. Additionally, new rules will track feedstocks to prevent negative environmental impacts, ensuring a more sustainable fuel landscape in California.

This Analyst Note presents a structured approach to analyzing carbon market price movements within the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), focusing on price dynamics and utilizing statistical tools to monitor short-term fluctuations. As the largest carbon market in the world, with a value surpassing that of all other cap-and-trade systems combined, the EU ETS is a critical area of analysis for stakeholders involved in carbon trading. Understanding the factors driving the dynamics of the EU ETS is essential for navigating the evolving carbon market landscape. This report adopts a multi-faceted approach, divided into three main sections: fundamental analysis, event-driven analysis, and technical analysis.

This analyst note examines the diverse compliance and voluntary carbon offset markets in Canada, focusing on key policy developments, market trends, protocols, and investment opportunities. It covers the Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM) as well as compliance offset schemes under the Federal system, Quebec, British Columbia, and Alberta’s TIER program. The note provides a strategic overview of protocols approved in these regions, such as IFM, landfill methane, and other technology-based solutions, while offering a forecast for Alberta’s TIER offsets and insights into the opportunities and challenges across these markets.