An unprecedented report providing the first comprehensive forecast focused on the Voluntary Renewable Energy Certificates (VRECs) market in the United States. The report represents a significant milestone in the understanding of VRECs dynamics, offering insights into the market's evolution and future trajectory. With meticulous analysis and robust forecasting methodologies, cCarbon's report aims to provide stakeholders with invaluable strategic guidance.

More than two years after the latest large legislative change in the WCI, the introduction of Assembly Bill 398 segregating offset credits into DEBs and non-DEBs, the market slowly settles into a new stage of maturity. Yet, new developments within and without the market continue influencing expectations: as outlined in the AB32 Climate Change 2022 Scoping Plan, the California Air Resource Board appears set to introduce a more stringent emissions cap that aims to take emission levels 48% below 1990s levels by 2030, as opposed to the former 40%. On top of this, 2023 is going to be the first year in the history of the WCI where state-wide emissions surpass the emission cap. Increased demand in the voluntary carbon markets for high-quality offset credits is turning project developers formerly only selling on the compliance market towards voluntary purchasers. The recent launch of the Washington market is also bound to create increased demand for offset credits, even if the linkage of the two markets do not materialise by the end of the decade.

This flagship report examines past trends and possible futures for the demand and supply balance of the Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM). We outline scenarios based on different IC-VCM outcomes, Article 6 implementations, and corporate demand levels.

In the past year, several landmark judgements and legislations have been brought into action within the United States. These comprise laws that focus on greenhouse gases, emissions reduction, regulation of carbon markets, and more. Within this version of our Legislative Tracker, we have captured key bills that were introduced in the US Federal and State legislation, as well as in Canada during 2021-2022. Several key bills focusing on the broader environmental domain have an impact on different carbon-related markets: from Cap-and-Trade, Carbon-intensity based clean fuels, to Voluntary markets.

The Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM) is often described as a highly opaque market, in which the same offset can generate vastly different prices between different retailers. When price quotes are wildly variable for similar projects, buyers are more likely to view the market as immature and question its place as a steppingstone in the global environmental transition, thus potentially stunting market growth. If the VCM is to take a more central role in climate mitigation strategy, trust needs to be built in the market.