InSights

This InSight dives deep into cCarbon’s 2030 forecasts for North American clean fuel markets, exploring the interconnections between regulatory dynamics, market behavior, and pricing outlooks.

Renewable diesel, like biodiesel, is produced from renewable sources such as vegetable oils, animal fats, and cooking oil. However, it undergoes a hydrogenation process that chemically transforms it into a petroleum diesel equivalent, allowing for higher blending rates and transportation through existing pipeline infrastructure. Given the limitations on ethanol blending and the emerging technology for cellulosic fuels, renewable diesel is poised to dominate renewable fuel growth over the forecast period. Canada's renewable diesel market is growing, with new facilities being built and the federal government implementing regulations to reduce carbon intensity.

In this insight report, we explore the critical role of Canada's Clean Fuel Regulation (CFR) in shaping the country's path towards transportation decarbonization.

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) marks a significant shift for aviation. Unlike conventional jet fuels, SAF is derived from renewable sources like tallow, waste oils, and synthetic processes.

In recent years, the North American energy landscape has been undergoing a transformative shift towards sustainability and environmental responsibility. One of the key enablers in this transition is the Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) market, a sector that has gained significant momentum and attention across the continent. RNG, also known as biomethane, is a renewable energy source derived from organic materials, such as agricultural waste, food waste, landfill wastes, and wastewater. It is a low-carbon alternative to traditional natural gas and holds the potential to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions while providing a reliable and sustainable energy source.

The North American market for renewable diesel is expected to experience remarkable growth, driven by supportive regulatory frameworks, increasing consumer demand for sustainable fuels, and a growing awareness of the need to combat climate change. As per our research, the North American renewable diesel consumption stood at 6.9 billion liters in 2022 and is projected to reach 27.3 billion liters by 2030.

Targeting the carbon intensity of fuels to reduce emissions from the transportation sector has led to the consideration of low-carbon fuels. The California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) is a mechanism that uses the life cycle carbon intensity of various fuel routes as a metric to cut emissions by 10%. Currently, the credit bank is at 11.70 MT. Tier 1 pathways are squeezing the other pathways, with a major credit increase from renewable diesel.

The Sustainable Aviation Fuel market size stood at US$1.1 billion in 2022, up from US$50 million in 2019 registering an annually compounded growth rate of 115.38%. As per cCarbon estimates, the market is expected to reach value of US$29.7 billion by 2030. The main driver of growth is the need to reduce Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.