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Article 6 at COP28 I Analyst Note I December 2023
Monday, 18th December 2023

In the wake of COP28, we review the progress and outlook for Article 6 of the Paris Agreement based on the negotiations. Beginning with an overview of the antecedents leading to the Agreement, we focus on the relationship between Article 6 and voluntary carbon markets (VCM). The update extends to the prospects and progress at COP28, addressing contentious issues, the negotiation timeline, and summarizing the outcomes of the conference. We conclude with key takeaways and our expectations for the near future.

Table of Contents
  1. Key Takeaways
  2. INTRODUCTION TO ARTICLE 6 AND THE PARIS AGREEMENT
  3. Antecedents to the Paris Agreement
  4. The Paris Agreement and Article 6
  5. ARTICLE 6 AND THE VOLUNTARY CARBON MARKETS
  6. Private Entity Participation in Article 6
  7. Conditions of VCM credit integration into Article 6
  8. Implications of a non-CA (mitigation contribution) A6.4 market
  9. COP28 – PROSPECTS AND PROGRESS
  10. The status quo going into COP28
  11. Contentious Issues for COP28 Negotiators
  12. Timeline of Negotiations at COP28
  13. Summary of Article 6 Outcomes and Drivers Thereof
  14. Takeaways and Looking Ahead

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cCarbon has mapped both the demand as well as supply of SAF to size the market. The research indicates that global SAF consumption in 2022 (as per offtake agreements) stood at 494 million litres.
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